Research

Job Market Paper

Norms That Travel: The Role of Grassroots Institutions on Anti-Social Behavior [Latest draft]

Abstract: In weak-state environments, behavior depends less on formal rules and more on internalized norms, yet how such norms emerge, and whether informal institutions can cultivate them, remains unclear. I provide causal evidence that accountable grassroots institutions can form, internalize, and sustain moral norms that shape long-run behavior. My empirical strategy exploits the staggered emergence of Peru’s Peasant Rounds (1976–1983), community-run security organizations with participatory and accountable design, and combines archival, ethnographic, administrative, survey, and original fieldwork data into a new dataset. Using a matched difference-in-differences design across cohorts and birth districts, paired with displacement induced by exogenous weather shocks, I show that exposure to the rounds before age 11 shifts rule-following from fear to empathy, fosters more impartial moral judgments, increases respect for others' rights, and raises trust beyond the in-group. These changes in moral norms translate into meaningful behavioral outcomes: adult arrests and incarceration fall by roughly 14 percent relative to the control-group mean, and insurgent recruitment declines by about 32 percent. I also find substantial evidence that these norm changes persist when individuals relocate, diffuse into previously unexposed host communities, and extend to the next generation. A placebo comparison with self-defense groups lacking accountability shows no comparable effects. Taken together, the results are consistent with a mechanism in which accountable community institutions socialize children and raise the moral cost of wrongdoing, cultivating intrinsic prosocial motivation that travels with individuals over space and time.


Working Papers


Cracking Down on Coca: Unintended Effects on Criminal-Political Linkages and State-Building 

Abstract: How can a punitive anti-drug policy impact governance? Using staggered eradication campaigns and the criminalization of reseeding as shocks, I estimate two-way fixed-effects and event-study models using household surveys, electoral and criminal administrative records, and spatial-geocoded data on coca areas. I show that eradication reduces trust in formal institutions and lowers the perceived value of democracy, while increasing ties to non-state armed actors as households seek protection and income. On the supply side, I document a rise in candidacies affiliated with parties under investigation or conviction for drug-related crimes of people without a political career or any previous affiliation. I show that criminal organizations leverage citizens' grievances and seek political power, and diversify into other illicit markets. These results show how poorly tailored enforcement can undermine state legitimacy and tighten criminal–political linkages. 

Colonial Alliances, Syncretism, and Power (with Micaela Sviatschi and Eduardo Montero)

Abstract: When does cultural heterogeneity impede development, and when does it foster it? We argue that a crucial but overlooked factor is cultural syncretism—the enduring fusion of practices, symbols, and accompanying power-sharing arrangements. Focusing on Peru, we assemble new spatial data on Indigenous polities that allied with the Spanish conquest versus adjacent polities that did not. Using a border regression-discontinuity design at historical ally/non-ally frontiers, we first show that locations on the alliance side exhibit more syncretism—higher mestizaje, more mixed religious festivals, and more shared power in local office. We then show that these same locations display stronger long-run development—brighter nightlights and greater urbanization. Mechanism tests indicate more bridging (rather than bonding) social capital and greater mixed surnames. Our results help reconcile conflicting findings on fractionalization and diversity by highlighting syncretism and power sharing as the conditions under which heterogeneity becomes development-enhancing.


Advanced Projects


Mass Migration and The Expansion of Transnational Criminal Networks (with Micaela Sviatschi)


Mapping Crime in Peru: Youth Recruitment and Criminal Governance (with Micaela Sviatschi) 


Work in Progress


When Spirits Govern: Mining Rituals, Weak States, and the Diffusion of Criminal Norms


Tackling Human Trafficking Networks in Peru: Integrating Local Identification and Institutional Capacity Building  (with Micaela Sviatschi)


Cambiando Rumbos: Youth Prevention and Criminal Recruitment in Peru  (with Micaela Sviatschi)


From Indoctrination to Diffusion: The Legacy of Women Combatants (with Ceren Baysan and Micaela Sviatschi)


Historical Violence and the Formation of Gender Norms: Evidence from the Rubber Boom  (with  Micaela Sviatschi )


Journal Articles

Conditional Cash Transfers and Health, with Oswaldo Molina and Diego Winkelried. Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, 2023.  

Conditional Cash Transfers, Spillovers, and Informal Health Care: Evidence from Peru, with Oswaldo Molina and Diego Winkelried. Health Economics, 2020