Research

Job Market Paper

Norms That Travel: The Role of Grassroots Institutions on Anti-Social Behavior [Latest draft]

Abstract: In weak-state environments, behavior depends less on formal rules and more on internalized norms, yet how such norms emerge, and whether informal institutions can cultivate them, remains unclear. I provide causal evidence that accountable grassroots institutions can form, internalize, and sustain moral norms that shape long-run behavior. My empirical strategy exploits the staggered emergence of Peru’s Peasant Rounds (1976–1983), community-run security organizations with participatory and accountable design, and combines archival, ethnographic, administrative, survey, and original fieldwork data into a new dataset. Using a matched difference-in-differences design across cohorts and birth districts, paired with displacement induced by exogenous weather shocks, I show that exposure to the rounds before age 11 shifts rule-following from fear to empathy, fosters more impartial moral judgments, increases respect for others' rights, and raises trust beyond the in-group. These changes in moral norms translate into meaningful behavioral outcomes: adult arrests and incarceration fall by roughly 14 percent relative to the control-group mean, and insurgent recruitment declines by about 32 percent. I also find substantial evidence that these norm changes persist when individuals relocate, diffuse into previously unexposed host communities, and extend to the next generation. A placebo comparison with self-defense groups lacking accountability shows no comparable effects. Taken together, the results are consistent with a mechanism in which accountable community institutions socialize children and raise the moral cost of wrongdoing, cultivating intrinsic prosocial motivation that travels with individuals over space and time.


Working Papers


Cracking Down on Coca: Unintended Effects on Criminal-Political Linkages and State-Building 

Abstract: How can a punitive anti-drug policy impact governance? Using staggered eradication campaigns and the criminalization of reseeding as shocks, I estimate two-way fixed-effects and event-study models using household surveys, electoral and criminal administrative records, and spatial-geocoded data on coca areas. I show that eradication reduces trust in formal institutions and lowers the perceived value of democracy, while increasing ties to non-state armed actors as households seek protection and income. On the supply side, I document a rise in candidacies affiliated with parties under investigation or conviction for drug-related crimes of people without a political career or any previous affiliation. I show that criminal organizations leverage citizens' grievances and seek political power, and diversify into other illicit markets. These results show how poorly tailored enforcement can undermine state legitimacy and tighten criminal–political linkages. 

Colonial Alliances, Syncretism, and Power (with Micaela Sviatschi and Eduardo Montero)

Abstract: When does cultural heterogeneity impede development, and when does it foster it? We argue that a crucial but overlooked factor is cultural syncretism—the enduring fusion of practices, symbols, and accompanying power-sharing arrangements. Focusing on Peru, we assemble new spatial data on Indigenous polities that allied with the Spanish conquest versus adjacent polities that did not. Using a border regression-discontinuity design at historical ally/non-ally frontiers, we first show that locations on the alliance side exhibit more syncretism—higher mestizaje, more mixed religious festivals, and more shared power in local office. We then show that these same locations display stronger long-run development—brighter nightlights and greater urbanization. Mechanism tests indicate more bridging (rather than bonding) social capital and greater mixed surnames. Our results help reconcile conflicting findings on fractionalization and diversity by highlighting syncretism and power sharing as the conditions under which heterogeneity becomes development-enhancing.


Advanced Projects


Mass Migration and The Expansion of Transnational Criminal Networks (with Micaela Sviatschi)


Mapping Crime in Peru: Youth and Girls Recruitment into Criminal Networks (with Micaela Sviatschi) 


Work in Progress


When Spirits Govern: Mining Rituals, Weak States, and the Diffusion of Criminal Norms

Description: This project examines how certain belief systems can normalize costly and lawless behaviors, hindering development and weakening the rule of law across the Andes. I focus on mining-related rituals and narratives, which often interact with parallel, non-state governance structures that can embed criminal norms. The research is built on constructing a novel dataset using archival ethnography from the 1910s on mining workers, which is currently undergoing digitization and computational text analysis. By studying how these "spirit-based" norms diffuse and persist, I aim to explore how shared belief systems can act as a crucial, understudied barrier to state capacity and the formal rule of law in weak-state contexts.


Tackling Human Trafficking Networks in Peru: Integrating Local Identification and Institutional Capacity Building  (with Micaela Sviatschi)

Description: How can governments effectively disrupt human trafficking networks in contexts of mass migration and weak institutions? This project evaluates two complementary interventions addressing critical gaps in anti-trafficking response: specialized prosecutor training (TRACK4TIP) and municipal police training for victim identification and case documentation. We assess prosecutor training using over 2,000 judicial cases and computational text analysis of sentences to measure impacts on conviction rates and victim-centered prosecution practices. The project also includes a cluster-randomized trial of municipal police training across 20 high-trafficking districts, measuring effects on victim identification, documentation, and referral quality. The research will provide the first causal evidence on trafficking prosecution interventions in migration contexts. It directly informs IOM and UNODC scaling decisions across Latin America, addressing vulnerability heightened by the displacement crisis.


Cambiando Rumbos: Youth Prevention and Criminal Recruitment in Peru  (with Micaela Sviatschi)

Description: This project evaluates Peru's national youth violence prevention program, Cambiando Rumbos, which provides standard psychosocial and cognitive-behavioral skills training (CBT) to reduce aggression and antisocial behavior. Trauma exposure can moderate CBT effectiveness by creating cognitive constraints that limit returns to skills training for high-risk adolescents. Youth exposed to chronic violence develop maladaptive beliefs (hypervigilance) that can block the deployment of impulse control techniques. To address this, we are adding a randomized component tied to trauma treatment delivered before or alongside standard training. The goal is to determine if removing these trauma-based cognitive barriers enhances the program's effectiveness. 


From Indoctrination to Diffusion: The Legacy of Women Combatants (with Ceren Baysan and Micaela Sviatschi)

Description: We aim to trace the long-term diffusion of ideology by studying women combatants and their indoctrination by the Shining Path. We use extensive archival records from the University of Huamanga (1960–1995), the Gorriti collection, and teacher assignment data to identify cohorts of women exposed to recruitment and who were later assigned as school teachers. The goal is to explore how this ideology spread across time and space. In particular, we explore its potential long-lasting effects on behavior, culture, and social norms. This work contributes to understanding the gendered dimensions of insurgent legacies and the mechanisms of cultural persistence.


Historical Violence and the Formation of Gender Norms: Evidence from the Rubber Boom  (with  Micaela Sviatschi )

Description: This project examines the long-run effects of the Amazon rubber boom (1879–1912), a brutal labor regime characterized by systematic sexual violence and trafficking, on contemporary gender norms. We are constructing a novel historical dataset from rubber company archives, government investigations, and missionary reports, documenting violence patterns around worker camps and colono settlements. We test whether highly exposed areas exhibit higher acceptance and perpetration of violence against women, child marriages, and teenage pregnancies, linking historical data to contemporary surveys and administrative records. Our research also traces how sexual violence was culturally normalized, using folklore (e.g., the pink dolphin tale) traced back to the boom era. This work contributes to understanding the lasting cultural legacies of extractive economies.


Journal Articles

Conditional Cash Transfers and Health, with Oswaldo Molina and Diego Winkelried. Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, 2023.  

Conditional Cash Transfers, Spillovers, and Informal Health Care: Evidence from Peru, with Oswaldo Molina and Diego Winkelried. Health Economics, 2020