Articles
Peer Reviewed Articles & Book Chapters
"The Russia-Ukraine War and Nuclear Weapons: Evaluating Familiar Insights." Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament (forthcoming)
"The Limits of Regional Power: South Africa's Security Strategy, 1975-1989" (with Noel Anderson). Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 46, no. 2 (2023): 404-426
"The Limits of Nuclear Learning in the New Nuclear Era" (with Nicholas L. Miller). In Vipin Narang and Scott D. Sagan (eds), The Delicate Balance of Terror: Deterrence in a New Nuclear Age, Cornell University Press (2023)
“Defending the “Acquisition-Use Presumption” in Assessing the Likelihood of Nuclear Terrorism.” International Studies Quarterly, vol. 63, no. 3 (September 2019): 774-778
“How to Think About Nuclear Crises” (with Julia Macdonald). Texas National Security Review, vol. 2, no. 2 (February 2019): 40-64
"Nuclear Opportunism: A Theory of How States Use Nuclear Weapons in International Politics." Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 42, no. 1 (January 2019): 3-28
Winner of the 2019 Amos Perlmutter Prize for best article in the Journal of Strategic Studies by a junior faculty member
Winner of the 2016 American Political Science Association Foreign Policy Section award for best graduate student paper
"Authoritarian Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace" (with Kai Quek). International Organization, vol. 71, no. 1 (Winter 2018): 227-242
"Examining Explanations for Nuclear Proliferation." International Studies Quarterly, vol. 60, no. 3 (September 2016): 520-529
Subject of International Studies Quarterly online symposium (February 2016)
"Beyond Emboldenment: How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy." International Security, vol. 40, no. 1 (Summer 2015): 87-119
Winner of the 2016 International Studies Association Patricia Weitsman Award for best graduate student paper in security studies
Discussion: Belfer Center podcast, Council on Foreign Relations Blog, Washington Post/Monkey Cage 1 & 2
Subject of H-Diplo/ISSF roundtable (February 2017)
"Questioning the Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict" (with Nicholas L. Miller). Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 59, no. 1 (February 2015): 74-92
Reprinted in Robert J. Art and Kelly M. Greenhill (eds), The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics, 8th Edition (Rowman & Littlefield, 2015)
Reprinted in Erik Gartzke, Matthew Kroenig, and Neil Narang (eds), Nonproliferation Policy and Nuclear Posture: Causes and Consequences for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (Routledge, 2015)
Discussion: Jay Ulfelder, Political Science Replication, Smoke-Filled Room, R-bloggers, Organizations and Markets, Duck of Minerva, LSE Impact Blog
"Can Britain Defend the Falklands?" Defence Studies, vol. 12, no. 2 (June 2012): 283-301
Select other Publications and Writings
"Correspondence: Nuclear Deterrence—What Is It Good For?" International Security, vol. 49, no. 2 (Fall 2024): 170-173.
"Plus ça Change, Plus c'est la Meme Chose: The Old Lessons about Nuclear Weapons being Re-Observed in Ukraine." H-Diplo/RJISSF Policy Roundtable, February 21, 2024.
"The End of Inhibition? Why US Nonproliferation Policy is Becoming Less Effective" (with Kelso R. Anderson and Cheyenne Tretter). The Washington Quarterly, vol. 46, no. 3 (Fall 2023): 127-147.
"The Nuclear Taboo and the Inevitability of Uncertainty." Security Studies, vol. 32, no. 1 (2023): 166-172.
"Correspondence: Contrasting Views on How to Code a Nuclear Crisis'' (with Julia Macdonald). Texas National Security Review, vol. 2, no. 4 (August 2019)
"How Dangerous Was Kargil? Nuclear Crises in Comparative Perspective" (with Julia Macdonald). The Washington Quarterly, vol. 42, no. 2 (Summer 2019): 135-148
"Review of James Cameron, The Double Game: The Demise of America's First Missile Defense System and the Rise of Strategic Arms Limitation (Oxford University Press)." The Historian, vol. 81, no. 1 (Spring 2019): 147-148
"Toward Deterrence: The Upside of the Trump-Kim Summit" (with Julia Macdonald). War on the Rocks, June 15, 2018
"North Korean Nuclear Capabilities and U.S. Foreign Policy.'' Physics and Society, vol. 47, no. 2 (April 2018): 30-31
"Trump, Psychology, and the Future of U.S. Alliances" (with Joshua D. Kertzer). German Marshall Fund Young Strategists Forum Paper Series, 2018
"North Korea Won't Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons. The U.S. Has Three Good Reasons to Talk Anyway." Washington Post / Monkey Cage, March 9, 2018
"Review of Todd S. Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann, Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge University Press)." Political Science Quarterly, vol. 132, no. 4 (Winter 2017/18): 752-754
"North Korea Benefits from Nuclear Weapons: Get Used to It." War on the Rocks, October 2, 2017
"Correspondence: The Effects of Acquiring Nuclear Weapons." International Security, vol. 41, no. 1 (Summer 2016): 186-190
"Uncertainty, Inferences, and the Study of Nuclear Proliferation." Contribution to International Studies Quarterly online symposium, February 2016
"Okay, So What If Iran Does Get Nuclear Weapons?" Washington Post / Monkey Cage, August 20, 2015
"How to Persuade Journals to Accept Your Replication Paper." Political Science Replication Blog, September 11, 2013
"Can Britain Defend the Falklands?" Huffington Post, October 5, 2012