David N. Bengston, Ph.D.

My research papers have appeared in natural resource journals such as the Journal of Forestry, Society & Natural Resources, and Ecology & Society, and Futures Research journals such as World Futures Review, the Journal of Futures Research, and Futures.

Bengston, David N., Lynne M. Westphal, Paul Adelson, Jason Crabtree, Michael J. Dockry, Andy Hines, George H. Kubik, Maria Romero, Zach Van Stanley, Nicole L. Zimmerman. 2024. Emerging signals of change that could shape the future of forestry: A horizon scan. Journal of Forestry 122(2): 152-158. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/67232
Bengston, David N.; Mauno, Tuomas; Hujala, Teppo. 2024. Horizon Scanning: A Process for Identifying Emerging Signals of Change Shaping the Future of Natural Resources Management. Society & Natural Resources. 37(7): 1108-1115. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/67717
Bengston, David N. 2023. Wild Cards in Natural Resource Planning: High Impact Surprises that Shape the Future. Natural Resources Journal 63(1): 70-87. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/65890
Maunos, Tuomas, Fellice Catelo, David N. Bengston, Jouni Pykäläinen, and Teppo Hujala. 2023. How to identify and interpret weak signals of change in the forest bioeconomy: A real-time Delphi approach. Forest Policy and Economics. 157(Dec.): 1-13. Article 103075. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/67727
Westphal, Lynne M.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Reese, Gordon C.; Quigley, Kathleen M.; Crabtree, Jason; Bengston, David N.; Fleischman, Forrest D.; Plisinski, Joshua S. 2023. Preparing for an uncertain future: Merging the strategic foresight toolkit with landscape modeling in northeast Minnesota’s forests. Landscape and Urban Planning. 237(10): 104798. 14 p. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/66180
Bengston, D.N., L.M. Westphal, M.J. Dockry, and J. Crabtree. 2022. Field note: A “serious game” to explore alternative forestry futures. Journal of Forestry. 120(2): 222-226. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/63569
Amyot, M.-A., D.N. Bengston, J. Crabtree, F. Fleischman, J. Garcia, C. Mann, B. Perrin, L.M. Westphal, M. Wheeler. 2022. Strategic foresight in forestry: How Canada and the United States use a neglected tool to build a green, healthy and resilient future. Proceedings paper, XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022, Seoul, Republic of Korea. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/65337
Bengston, D.N., Noor Adwan, Abby Bierworth, et al. 2022. Accelerating climate change: An exploration of cascading future implications. Journal of Futures Studies. 27(1): 29-40. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/65469
Westphal, Lynne M., Bengston, David N., & Crabtree, Jason. 2022. Strategic Foresight: Applications for COVID-19 and Wildland Fire Management. Fire Management Today, 80(1): 26–32. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/64832
Bengston, D.N. 2021. Lab-grown wood: A potential wild card for forestry and forest products. The Forestry Source. March 2021. 26(3): 10, 17. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/62554
Hines, A., B.P. Baldwin, D.N. Bengston, J. Crabtree, K. Christensen, N. Frankowski, L. Schlehuber, L.M. Westphal, L. Young. 2021. Monitoring emerging issues: A proposed approach and initial test. World Futures Review 13(3-4): 195-213. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/63664
Bengston, D.N. 2020. Future estrangement: Not having a place in the emerging future. Journal of Futures Research 25(2): 3-8. December. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61833
Bengston, D. 2020. Review: The Future Earth: A Radical Vision for What’s Possible in the Age of Warming, by Eric Holthaus. Human Futures (World Futures Studies Federation), Issue 3, December, p. 34. https://issuu.com/wfsf.president/docs/issue_3_2020_hf_final_page_by_page_300dpi
Bengston, D.N. 2020. Unraveling and reweaving the tapestry of life in the Anthropocene. Human Futures (April 2020), pp. 12-16. (The online magazine of the World Futures Studies Federation). https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/64348
Bengston, D.N., J. Crabtree and T. Hujala. 2020. Abrupt climate change: Exploring the implications of a wild card. Futures Vol. 124, December, article 102641. Pp. 1-10. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61456
Bengston, D.N., T. Hujala and B. Butler. 2020. The “coming age of wood” and family forest owners: An Implications Wheel® exploration. Small-scale Forestry. 19(2): 145-157. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61220
Bengston, D.N., L. Westphal and M. Dockry. 2020. Back from the future: The backcasting wheel for mapping a pathway to a preferred future. World Futures Review 12(3): 270–278. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61055
Dockry, Michael J.; Bengston, David N.; Westphal, Lynne M. (eds.). 2020. Drivers of change for U.S. forests and forestry over the next 20 years. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-197. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 99 p. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61513

Contents:

Dockry, Michael J.; Bengston, David N.; Westphal, Lynne M. 2020. Drivers of change in forests and forestry: an introduction. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61547
Brandt, Leslie. Climate as a driver of change in U.S. forests. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61553
Olson, Robert L. An uncertain economic future for the United States. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61554
Espinoza, Omar. Trends in the U.S. forest products sector, markets, and technologies. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61557
Kubik, George H. Technology as a driver of future change in the forest sector: projected roles for disruptive and emergent technologies. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61561
Olson, Robert L. Demographics as a driver of change in the U.S. forest sector. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61562
Bengston, David N. Shifting forest values as a driver of change. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61563
Dockry, Michael J. Indigenous rights and empowerment in natural resource management and decision making as a driver of change in U.S. forestry. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61564
Sharik, Terry L.; Storer, Andrew J.; Bal, Tara L.; Abbas, Dalia. Education as a driver of change in U.S. forests and the forest sector. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61565

Oldekop, J.A., L.V. Rasmussen, A. Agrawal, A.J. Bebbington, P. Meyfroidt, D.N. Bengston, et al. 2020. Forest-linked livelihoods in a globalized world. Nature Plants 6(12): 1400-1407. December. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/61838
Bengston, D.N. 2019. Futures research methods and applications in natural resources. Society and Natural Resources 32(10): 1099–1113. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/58242
Bengston, D.N. 2019. Scanning the horizon for the future of Arboriculture. Arborist News 28(4): 26-31. August. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/58696
Hines, A.; Bengston, D.N.; Dockry, M.J. (compilers). 2019. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-187. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 81 p. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57939

Contents:

Bengston, David N. Introduction: The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57941
Hines, Andy; David N. Bengston; Michael J. Dockry; Adam Cowart. Setting Up the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning System. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57942
Roe, Bo; Andy Hines. An Innovative Method for Identifying Fruitful Scanning Sources for Forest Futures. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57943
Bengston, David N.; Nicole Zimmerman; Kurt Callaway. Connecting the Dots in the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Database: An Initial Analysis. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57944
Callaway, Kurt; Andy Hines; David N. Bengston. Identifying Current USDA Forest Service Issues to Provide Context for Horizon Scanning. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57945
Bengston, David N.; Leif A. DeVaney; Michael J. Dockry; Andy Hines; George H. Kubik; Bo Roe; Maria Romero. Using the Implications Wheel in Horizon Scanning: Exploring Implications of Growing Apathy Toward the Environment. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57946
DeVaney, Leif A.; David N. Bengston; Michael J. Dockry; Andy Hines. Exploration of a Horizon Scanning Trend: Growing Indigenous Empowerment. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57947
Hines, Andy; Johann Schutte; Maria Romero; David N. Bengston. Scenarios to Provide Context for Horizon Scanning: Backcasting North American Forest Futures from 2090 to 2035. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57948
Hines, Andy. Communicating Horizon Scanning. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57949
Cowart, Adam; Andy Hines; Kurt Callaway; David N. Bengston; Michael J. Dockry. Forest Futures: A Guide for Scanners. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/57950

Asah, S.T.; Bengston, D.N.; Westphal, L.M.; Gowan, C.H. 2018. Mechanisms of children’s exposure to nature: Predicting adulthood environmental citizenship and commitment to nature-based activities. Environment and Behavior 50(7): 807-836. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/54725
Bengston, D.N. 2018. Principles for thinking about the future and foresight education. World Futures Review (Special issue on “Teaching Futures: The State of the Practice”) 10(3): 193-202. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/56795
Bengston, D.N., M.J. Dockry and S.R. Shifley. 2018. Anticipating cascading change in land use: Exploring the implications of a major trend in US Northern forests. Land Use Policy 71: 222-229. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/55563
Bengston, D.N., J. Peck, R.L. Olson, M. Barros, R.A. Birdsey, D.R. Williams, J.C. Leyva Reyes, and F.J. Zamudio. 2018. North American forest futures 2018 – 2090: Aspirational futures for building a more resilient forest sector. World Futures Review 10(2) 152 –169. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/56098
Hines, Andy, D.N. Bengston, M.J. Dockry, and A. Cowart. 2018. Setting up a horizon scanning system: A US federal agency example. World Futures Review 10(2) 136–151. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/55609
Bengston, D.N. 2017. Ten Principles for Thinking About the Future: A Primer for Environmental Professionals. General Technical Report NRS-175. Newtown Square, PA: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/55548
Bengston, D.N., M.J. Dockry and S.R. Shifley. 2017. Anticipating cascading change in land use: Seeking a deeper understanding of the future consequences of forest management action or inaction. In: Kabrick, J.M., et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 20th Central Hardwood Forest Conference. General Technical Report NRS-P-167. Newtown Square, PA: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 2-9. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/55563
Bengston, D.N. 2016. The Futures Wheel: A method for exploring the implications of social-ecological change. Society and Natural Resources 29(3): 374-379. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/50218
Bengston, D.N., J. Dator, M.J. Dockry, and A. Yee. 2016. Alternative Futures for Forest-Based Nanomaterials: An Application of the Manoa School’s Alternative Futures Method. World Future Review 8(3): 1-25. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/52436
Bengston, D.N. and R.L. Olson. 2015. Asynchronous Online Foresight Panels: The Case of Wildfire Management. Journal of Futures Studies 19(4): 1-12. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/48582
Olson, R.L. and D.N. Bengston. 2015. A World on Fire. Foresight Report Spring/Summer 2015. Freeland, WA: AAI Foresight. http://www.aaiforesight.com/content/world-fire
Olson, R.L., D.N. Bengston, L.A. DeVaney and T.A.C. Thompson. 2015. Wildland fire management futures: Insights from a foresight panel. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-152. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 44 p. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/48581
Bengston, D.N. and M.J. Dockry. 2014. Forest futures in the Anthropocene. The Futurist 48(4): 34-39. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/46100
Cleaves, D., T. Sheldon, D. Bengston, et al. 2014. Futuring and scenarios for building a more resilient forest sector. North American Forest Commission, Report of the Resilience Working Group, Madison, WI, USA, 11 – 13 June 2014. FAO Document: FO:NAFC/2014/5.7 http://www.fao.org/3/a-mj605e.pdf
Bengston, D.N. 2013. Horizon scanning for environmental foresight: a review of issues and approaches. GTR-NRS-121. Newtown Square, PA: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 20 p. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/44822
Bengston, D.N., R.L. Olson and L.A. DeVaney. 2013. The future of wildland fire management in a world of rapid change and great uncertainty: Overview of a futures research project. Pages 34-40 in: Proceedings of 3rd Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire, April 17 – 19, 2012, Seattle, WA. Published by the International Association of Wildland Fire, Missoula, MT. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/56287
Asah, S.T.; Bengston, D.N.; Wendt, K.; DeVaney, L. 2012. Prognostic framing of stakeholders’ subjectivities: A case of all-terrain vehicle management on state public lands. Environmental Management 49: 192-206. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/40250
Asah, S.T.; Bengston, D.N.; Wendt, K.; Nelson, K.C. 2012. Diagnostic reframing of intractable environmental problems: Case of a contested multiparty public land-use conflict. Journal of Environmental Management 108: 108-119. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/40900
Bengston, D.N. (ed.). 2012. Environmental futures research: Experiences, approaches and opportunities. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-107. Newtown Square, PA: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 79 p. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42304

Contents:

Bengston, David N. Foreword. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42308
Bengston, David N. Futures research: A neglected dimension in environmental policy and planning. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42309
Bishop, Peter C. An approach to the future. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42310
Strong, Kay E. A framework for developing foresight in natural resource management. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42311
Kubik, George H. Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42312
Carpenter, Stephen R.; Adena R. Rissman. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42313
Moser, W. Keith; Stephen R. Shifley. The Northern Forest Futures Project: A forward look at forest conditions in the northern United States. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42314
Langner, Linda L.; Peter J. Ince. Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42315
Olson, Robert L. Environmental futures research at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/42316

Bengston, D.N., G.H. Kubik and P.C. Bishop. 2012. Strengthening environmental foresight: Potential contributions of Futures Research. Ecology and Society 17(2): article 10. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/40689

(An additional 116 publications from 1983 – 2012. Contact me for a complete list)

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