Models of Policy Interventions
Policy Interventions: Estimating Effects of Actions
In an attempt to mitigate the effects of COVID-19, several potential policies have been proposed to reduce spreading the disease and/or reduce contact between infected and susceptible individuals.
Below, we discuss some of the policies that are currently being considered for policy making and communication.
Hand-washing
According to a study conducted for the BBC documentary Contagion!, heavy hand-washing reduces transmission of COVID-19 by 22%.
An SEIR model was used to predict the spread in the UK with and without heavy handwashing. After 90 days without handwashing, 42 million of the total 66 million UK population would have been infected compared to 17.5 million infected with heavy handwashing
Transportation
On January 23rd, Chinese authorities announced travel restrictions that shut down the Wuhan airport, public transportation systems, and private vehicles unless absolutely necessary. Following this announcement, many other countries also enacted travel bans in order to contain the infected population as much as possible.
The travel bans effectively reduced the number of cases imported from Mainland China to other countries by 77%, as seen in Matteo Chinazzi’s article published in the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Chinazzi used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEAM) to estimate the total number of COVID-19 cases with varying levels of travel restrictions, as seen in the graph below. As expected, with increased travel reductions, the disease will spread at a much lower rate.
Vaccination
A vaccine is necessary for the long-term management of COVID-19. Researchers are working on new vaccine technologies, including some that don’t use viruses at all in their production process. There is evidence to suggest that COVID-19 will become endemic,meaning it will be a disease that regularly attacks humans and will not go away until there’s a treatment or a vaccine.
Canceled Events
In order to reduce the probability of an infected person coming into contact with a susceptible person, the government has canceled events that include large group gatherings and strongly urged citizens to practice social distancing.
Scientists have modeled the expected proportion of the population that will be infected. Through social distancing, people can slow the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve. Christain Hubbs used an SEIR model to determine the impact of social distancing on the peak of the proportion of infected people.
0% social distancing → 10% of the population infected
20% social distancing → 7.5% of the population infected
50% social distancing → 3% of the population infected
Crowdsourcing
Safe Behavior for Safe Workplaces
The Michigan Senate created a “Safe Behavior for Safe Workplaces” work group website to gather input so that they can better understand the needs of job providers and workers as they work towards reopening Michigan for business.
Things we know about crowdsourcing:
i) Crowds can find people who know the answer
ii) Crowds can generate lots of ideas
iii) Bumping ideas together creates innovation
iv) Productivity scales with size
v) Diverse, smart crowds can predict
vi) Costs per unit time are ridiculously low
By crowdsourcing, the Michigan Senate is making use of the cognitive surplus in their state. Because the senators do not have expertise in all occupational fields, the idea generation from crowdsourcing helps the senators better serve the communities.
Contributors: Collette Patel, Taylor Wade, Shepherd Ytterock