Jose Ramon Moran
Welcome!
I'm a PhD Candidate in Economics at the Department of Economics at the University of Michigan. My research interests focus on studying firm behavior in export markets and the effects of Free Trade Agreements.
Fields: International Trade and Macroeconomics.
I am on the 2023-2024 Economics job market.
Prior to my graduate studies at the University of Michigan, I worked as a research assistant at ITAM, and as an economist at the Research Division of Banco de Mexico.
Education
PhD in Economics - 2024 (Expected)
MA in Economics - 2019
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
MA in Economic Theory - 2017
BA in Economics - 2013
Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Mexico City
Research
We study how Rules of Origin (RoO) affect the use of NAFTA. Firms exporting using NAFTA have to comply with RoO to enjoy preferential tariff treatment. We document that: (i) the smallest and largest firms use NAFTA less intensively than medium-sized firms, and (ii) the decrease in input sourcing from non-NAFTA countries when using NAFTA to export is increasing in firm size. We rationalize these empirical findings by including fixed costs of using NAFTA and of sourcing from foreign countries in a model of global input sourcing, where the opportunity cost of complying with RoO when using NAFTA increases with firm size. We quantify our model using data on Mexican firms, RoO, and tariffs. We conduct counterfactuals that suggest a 25% increase in the strictness of RoO or a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports would result in 0.72% and 13.65% lower US exports of intermediates to Mexico, respectively. On the contrary, we quantify that removing RoO would increase these exports by 2.98%.
How do information spillovers across export destinations affect the geography of exports? We refer to information spillovers as the fact that when firms have uncertainty on their profitability but acquire information through exporting, firms not only learn about market conditions at the destination of their exports but also about other similar destinations. This paper provides empirical evidence on the existence of these spillovers and builds a model of export supply and learning in which entry into a destination is influenced by its informativeness and a firm’s past export experience in similar markets. Using Mexican customs data, we structurally estimate the model and perform counterfactual exercises to evaluate how information spillovers contribute to the geographical spread of exports, and how an FTA aimed at increasing bilateral trade between member countries, could result in the diversification of export destinations by allowing firms to learn about their profitability in third-markets.
Medium-term scarring of natural disasters can emerge if the immediate damage caused by an extremely large shock results in persistent disruption to production capacity. This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore this issue for countries vulnerable to natural disasters. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfactual trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.
Global Supply Chains and Regional Shocks joint with Nadim Elayan
This paper explores how regional shocks affect the formation of global supply chains, recognizing the trade-off firms face when choosing the sourcing location of their inputs. On the one hand, sourcing from similar countries entails a lower risk of being exposed to regional shocks but on the other, it implies firms are less able to take advantage of the pattern of comparative advantage across the World. Using customs data on Mexican firms we document how firms weigh this trade-off, whether there is sectoral heterogeneity in this behavior, and study whether this heterogeneity is the result of sector-specific input complementarity. We build a model of global sourcing that accounts for comparative advantage being driven by geographical location and exposure to regional shocks. With our model, we explore the effects that an episode of increased regional risk, namely the COVID-19 global pandemic, had on firms’ global supply chain formation.
Firm Markups and Value-Added Rules joint with Leticia Juarez
Do Value-Added Rules induce exporting firms to charge higher markups? A significant fraction of Rules of Origin in Free Trade Agreements establish that for a firm to be able to export its products at a preferential rate, it must comply with having at least some share of value-added being generated at FTA member countries. In an environment in which markups are endogenous, firms could choose to increase their markups in order to comply with these regulations. This paper presents a tractable model of export supply, in which a firm's optimal pricing strategy is distorted by the presence of Value-Added Rules as the FTA introduces a discontinuity in firms' profits. We derive theoretical predictions for a firm's optimal price in an export market, as a function of these rules, and empirically estimate this relationship using plant-level and Rules of Origin data.