Simulation

We have created a simulation where we can model different metaverse traffic scenarios considering our conversion distribution and display the impact on the BI score Flourish can expect. We have analyzed the decision to enter new digital marketing efforts or stick with traditional marketing methods. We created this simulation to display different traffic conditions and conversion rates and see how this impacts our recommendation to Flourish to pursue these new digital methods. We have created this simulation so Flourish management can understand how the traffic flows they receive can determine if they achieve their desired effect on their brand impact score.

Variables and Assumptions Driving the Model

In our simulation we have chosen to simulate traffic from 50,000 visitors to 450,000 visitors in increments of 50,000 customers (demonstrated in simulations 1-9 respectively). It is our prediction that Flourish can expect 250,000 visitors, however we have chosen to model this span which has an average of 250,000 to demonstrate different demand conditions. We have used a normal probability distribution for our conversion rates with the corresponding predicted probabilities. To model predicted BI score we have used traffic, conversion, and BIC 1.38. We also understand that if Flourish sticks to traditional marketing efforts they will have a BI of 800, and we have accounted to simulate this defaulting our value to 800 for BI if the investment deems not favorable, simulating the decision to forgo the investment.

Simulating Demand

We have chosen to isolate the numbers visitors and use the distribution of conversion to model the market for Flourish. You can see that as our traffic increased our BI score increased, which is as expected. With our estimated traffic of 250,000 which is displayed as simulation 5, our mean BI is 834.8 with a minimum of 177.7 and max 1,491.9. Our average BI results show in 55% of the modeled scenarios we achieve above a 800 as a mean outcome, meaning these conditions it is favorable to invest in these new digital marketing measures and enter the metaverse. The simulations 1-4 show lower traffic conditions and express the variability on the BI scores Flourish can expect. In these market conditions Flourish would not want to take on the digital marketing efforts, as they would have better outcome to their BI score with sticking to traditional methods. Simulations 3 and 4 have favorable outcomes in the high conversion conditions and less favorable outcomes in the lower conditions, meaning Flourish is taking a chance on the investment in these lower traffic conditions. The lowest traffic condition of 50,000 customer Flourish would have been better off sticking to traditional marketing methods.

Our simulation should put the minds of Flourish managers at ease as we have modeled scenarios of traffic as low as 50,000 and up to 450,000 visitors. This array of scenarios demonstrates even the unlikely event the metaverse doesn't achieve desired traffic rates.

Simulation Implications

Based on careful analysis and research into the different scenarios Flourish may encounter in the market we determined more than half of the time they will achieve or surpass our estimated BI score. With this under consideration and understanding the vast untapped market the metaverse offers we strongly recommend they take the opportunity to be an industry leader in their space.

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