Embedded Files
Lecture materials, readings, discussion topics, and other resources will be posted here
(click each week to expand that week's materials).
Important dates
Module 1 Project Presentations - Friday, October 2 (during discussion session)
Module 2 Project Presentations - Friday, November 6 (during discussion session)
Module 3 Project Presentations - Friday, December 11 (during discussion session)
This schedule will be updated as we go! Weekly topics may be updated or changed as the course progresses.
Module 1: Understanding the fundamental properties of complex systems
Module 1: Understanding the fundamental properties of complex systems
Week 1
Week 1
What is a Complex System?
What is a Complex System?
Emergence and self organization
the brain and consciousness • bird flocks and insect swarms • traffic jams
Emergence and self organization
the brain and consciousness • bird flocks and insect swarms • traffic jams
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 1 - What Is a Complex System?
Lecture 2 - Emergence and Self-Organization
Traffic explorable: https://www.complexity-explorables.org/explorables/berlin-8-am/
Traffic simulation: https://traffic-simulation.de/
Pattern formation explorable: https://www.complexity-explorables.org/explorables/keith-harings-mexican-hat/
Discussion Materials
Discussion Materials
Homework (due Friday September 11)
Homework (due Friday September 11)
Readings
Readings
Chapter 1, Complexity: A Guided Tour, by Melanie Mitchell (available online through the UM Library)
Additional Readings and Resources
Additional Readings and Resources
Video on emergent collective behavior in animals
Science and Complexity, Warren Weaver, 1948 - introduces the ideas of organized and disorganized complexity
Complex Adaptive Systems, John H. Miller and Scott E. Page - Chapter 4, "On Emergence"
Week 2
Week 2
Randomness & Probability
the stock market • gambling • lava lamps
Randomness & Probability
the stock market • gambling • lava lamps
Power laws, heavy tailed distributions, black swan events
word frequency and Zipf’s Law • population sizes • neuronal avalanches • rich get richer • allometric scaling
Power laws, heavy tailed distributions, black swan events
word frequency and Zipf’s Law • population sizes • neuronal avalanches • rich get richer • allometric scaling
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 3 - Randomness and Probability
Mind reader game (link seems to be broken, for now go here: https://marisae.github.io/MindReader/webVersion/ )
Code Examples
Lecture 4 - Power Laws, Heavy Tails, and Black Swans
Discussion Materials
Discussion Materials
Homework (due September 18)
Homework (due September 18)
Homework 2
Readings
Readings
Randomness 101: LavaRand in Production
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
Chris Ferrie, Bayesian Probability for Babies (and here’s a reading of it on YouTube if that’s easier)
Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf's law, Mark Newman
Week 3
Week 3
Feedback loops
thermoregulation • forest fires • childbirth • toilet tanks
Feedback loops
thermoregulation • forest fires • childbirth • toilet tanks
Measures of complexity
genetics • computers • information • entropy
Measures of complexity
genetics • computers • information • entropy
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 5 - Feedback Loops
Lecture 6 - Measures of Complexity
Discussion Materials
Discussion Materials
Homework (due)
Homework (due)
Homework 5
Readings
Readings
Chapter 7, Complexity: A Guided Tour, by Melanie Mitchell (available online through the UM Library)
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
When genes became information, Matthew Cobb
Module 2: Methods for modeling complex systems
Module 2: Methods for modeling complex systems
Week 4
Week 4
Modeling intro, nonlinearity, exponential growth
unknown knowns • population growth • epidemics • homeostasis
Modeling intro, nonlinearity, exponential growth
unknown knowns • population growth • epidemics • homeostasis
Modeling frameworks
drug pharmacokinetics • population models • species competition
Modeling frameworks
drug pharmacokinetics • population models • species competition
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 7 - Intro to modeling
Lecture 8 - Modeling Frameworks
Discussion Materials
Discussion Materials
Homework (due)
Homework (due)
Readings
Readings
Anderson, 1972. More is different.
Lazebnik, 2002. Can a biologist fix a radio?
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
Rosenblueth and Wiener, 1945. The role of models in science.
Week 5
Week 5
Example: Lichtman model of presidential elections
Example: Lichtman model of presidential elections
Introduction to dynamical systems: equilibria, stability, and phase planes
ecological systems • predator-prey • epidemics • tensegrity
Introduction to dynamical systems: equilibria, stability, and phase planes
ecological systems • predator-prey • epidemics • tensegrity
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lichtman model intro
Lecture 9 - Dynamical systems: equilibria, stability, phase planes
Discussion Materials
Discussion Materials
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Readings
Readings
Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, Allan Lichtman, Chapters 1 and 2
Chapter 2, Complexity: A Guided Tour, by Melanie Mitchell (available online through the UM Library)
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
If you're interested in reading some of the critiques of Lichtman's model:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/
Week 6
Week 6
Dynamical systems: tipping points, bifurcations, pattern formation
Dynamical systems: tipping points, bifurcations, pattern formation
R0/the basic reproduction number • cancer • climate change • vegetation patterns
Synchronization and the Kuramoto Model
fireflies • metronomes • circadian rhythms
Synchronization and the Kuramoto Model
fireflies • metronomes • circadian rhythms
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 10 Slides - Bifurcations and Tipping Points
Lecture 11 - Synchronization and the Kuramoto Model
Discussion Materials
Discussion Materials
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Readings
Readings
Rosenblueth and Wiener, 1945. The role of models in science.
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
Huddling emperor penguins undergo phase transition - research paper and media highlight
Week 7
Week 7
Agent-based modeling basics
Agent-based modeling basics
forest fires • voting • video games • epidemics • swarming • traffic flow
Cellular Automata
Cellular Automata
game of life • Wolfram's classification • patterns on lizard scales
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 12 - Agent-Based Modeling
Lecture 13 - Cellular Automata
Discussion materials
Discussion materials
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Readings
Readings
Lazebnik, 2002. Can a biologist fix a radio?
Modelling song popularity as a contagious process - research paper and media highlight
Week 8
Week 8
Networks and network metrics
human contact patterns • social media • airline networks • the internet • neuronal networks
Networks and network metrics
human contact patterns • social media • airline networks • the internet • neuronal networks
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 12 - Networks
Discussion materials
Discussion materials
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Readings
Readings
Aspirational pursuit of mates in online dating markets | Science Advances
Introduction Chapter, Networks: An Introduction, by Mark Newman (available online through the UM Library)
Week 9
Week 9
Network Simulation
Network Simulation
small worlds • friendship dynamics • social networks
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 13 - Network Generation
Discussion materials
Discussion materials
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Readings
Readings
Aspirational pursuit of mates in online dating markets | Science Advances
Introduction Chapter, Networks: An Introduction, by Mark Newman (available online through the UM Library)
Chapter 15, The Science of Networks, Complexity: A Guided Tour, by Melanie Mitchell (available online through the UM Library)
Chaos and fractals
Chaos and fractals
weather dynamics • Romanesco broccoli • magnet pendulum • logistic map
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 14 - Chaos and Fractals
Discussion materials
Discussion materials
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Readings
Readings
What is chaos? A complex systems scientist explains, Mitchell Newberry
The Joy of X Podcast: Amie Wilkinson Sees the Dynamic Chaos in Puff Pastry
Additional materials
Additional materials
"Fractals Are Typically Not Self-Similar" by 3Blue1Brown (YouTube video)
Bach and Cantor: Fractal Structure in the Cello Suite No. 3
Mathematics of scale: Big, small and everything in between, Mitchell Newberry
Week 10
Week 10
Linking Models and Data
Linking Models and Data
optimization • parameter estimation • model selection
Lecture materials
Lecture materials
Lecture 15 - Linking Models and Data
Discussion materials
Discussion materials
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Readings
Readings
Additional materials
Additional materials
Module 3: Complex systems modeling in practice
Module 3: Complex systems modeling in practice
Week 11
Week 11
Machine learning, AI, and Chat GPT
Machine learning, AI, and Chat GPT
Lecture Materials
Lecture Materials
Lecture 16 - Machine learning and artificial intelligence
Discussion Materials
Discussion Materials
Quiz #2 on Friday in Discussion Section
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
The debate over understanding in AI’s large language models - Mitchell and Krakauer, 2023
Evolution and adaptation
Evolution and adaptation
Lecture Materials
Lecture Materials
Lecture 17 - Evolution & Adaptation
Discussion Section
Discussion Section
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
Chapter 8, Self-Reproducing Computer Programs, Complexity: A Guided Tour, by Melanie Mitchell (available online through the UM Library)
Week 12
Week 12
Information and misinformation spread
Information and misinformation spread
Lecture Materials
Lecture Materials
Lecture 18: Information and misinformation spread
Discussion Section
Discussion Section
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
Banks and financial crashes
Banks and financial crashes
Lecture Materials
Lecture Materials
Banks and financial crashes
Discussion Section
Discussion Section
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
Week 13
Week 13
(Includes Thanksgiving break)
Board games and video games as complex systems
Board games and video games as complex systems
Lecture Materials
Lecture Materials
Lecture 20 - Board games & video games
Discussion Section
Discussion Section
None due to Thanksgiving break!
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Week 14
Week 14
Neuroscience
Neuroscience
coupled oscillators • emergent behavior and the brain • neurons as toilets!
Modeling in infectious disease response
Modeling in infectious disease response
ourbreak dynamics • herd immunity • forecasting • measles outbreaks
Lecture Materials
Lecture Materials
Neuroscience
Infectious disease modeling
Discussion Section
Discussion Section
Homework (due )
Homework (due )
Additional Readings
Additional Readings
Additional topics to consider including for the last week or swapping for one of the above:
Additional topics to consider including for the last week or swapping for one of the above:
Food science and baking!
Food science and baking!
Cooperation, decisions, game-theory
Cooperation, decisions, game-theory
Pattern formation
Pattern formation
Illusions and multistable perception
Illusions and multistable perception
Ants and other social insects
Ants and other social insects
Archeology
Archeology
Incompleteness and fun with wierd math
Incompleteness and fun with wierd math
Image CreditsHeader: School of fish. By Eistreter - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0
Module 1: By A starling murmuration at Prestwick by Walter Baxter, CC BY-SA 2.0
Module 2: Marisa Eisenberg, Image of a phase space network for a cellular automata
Module 3: Traffic flow. By Timur Venkov - Imported from 500px (archived version) by the Archive Team. (detail page), CC BY 3.0
Module 1: By A starling murmuration at Prestwick by Walter Baxter, CC BY-SA 2.0
Module 2: Marisa Eisenberg, Image of a phase space network for a cellular automata
Module 3: Traffic flow. By Timur Venkov - Imported from 500px (archived version) by the Archive Team. (detail page), CC BY 3.0
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