Research

Abstract

Despite the alarming increase in mass shootings, comprehensive federal gun-control reforms have stalled since 1994. This paper examines whether mass shootings catalyze political engagement by analyzing campaign contributions in affected areas. Exploiting the quasi-random timing of mass shooting events, I employ two-way fixed-effects models and a neighboring-county design across county and census-tract levels using high-frequency contribution data from 2014-2024. Google Trends analysis reveals that while public attention to "Shooting" spikes 0.3 s.d. post-incident, searches for "gun control" show no corresponding increase. Consistent with this, I find no sustained increases in contributions to federal candidates, the NRA, or gun-control organizations at the county level. At the tract level, contributions to Republican candidates decline persistently by 2-3% in affected areas, without corresponding Democratic increases or gun-control PAC mobilization. Events that received national media attention generate temporary donation spikes to gun control PACs but quickly dissipate within 72 hours. These patterns hold across partisan contexts, event scales, and geographic regions. Notably, I find no evidence of strategic giving targeting affected districts' representatives. The findings challenge assumptions about tragedy-induced political mobilization, revealing that even high-casualty events fail to generate sustained financial engagement associated with successful policy movements. This helps explain persistent policy gridlock on gun control despite widespread public concern following mass violence.