Embedded Files
Works in Progress
Works in Progress
“The Impact of Immigration Status on Marriage: Evidence from Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals,” Under Review
Abstract: In June 2012, the Obama Administration announced the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a program that grants work authorization and deportation relief to unauthorized immigrants who entered the US as children. I estimate the effect of DACA on marriage. I focus on the probability of being married and, conditional on marriage, the probability of being married to a US citizen or US native, and the spouse's English fluency. Proxying for DACA eligibility using the American Community Survey, and focusing on Hispanic immigrants, I use a difference-in-differences strategy, finding that DACA eligibility increases the probability of being married by approximately 2 percentage points, an estimate that is likely a lower bound. I provide evidence that the expanded labor market opportunities offered by DACA amplify its effect on marriage among men and attenuate it among women. I also find that DACA’s relaxation of deportation risk increases the incentives to marry, more conclusively among women. For those who do marry, I find that DACA induced individuals to marry more assimilatively, as captured by more frequent marriages to US-born citizens and fluent English speakers.
“The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit and Economic Opportunity,” with Henry Downes, Stephanie Karol, and George Zuo
Abstract: We study the effects of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC)—the nation’s largest federal housing subsidy—on tenants’ residential mobility and earnings. Using proprietary application records from a major private developer linked to administrative data, we show that successful applicants move to lower-quality neighborhoods and experience wage declines relative to comparable unsuccessful applicants. These outcomes appear concentrated in high-poverty areas where federal rules grant bonus tax credits to developers, suggesting that the LIHTC’s current incentive structure may often steer households toward lower opportunity neighborhoods than they otherwise would have chosen.
“The Destruction of Social Capital and Family Flight: Evidence from Casino Openings,” with Malcolm Kass
Abstract: Social capital—the networks, institutions, and community bonds that support family life—plays a crucial role in shaping demographic outcomes and community stability. This paper examines how the erosion of family-supporting social capital triggers selective migration patterns, using casino openings as a natural experiment. Casinos represent adult-oriented entertainment venues inherently incompatible with family-friendly environments, and prior research documents substantial negative community spillovers including increased crime (Grinols and Mustard, 2006). Analyzing U.S. county data from 2004 to 2023 with a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, we find that casino development precipitates substantial "family flight": established families with children systematically relocate away from casino counties. This exodus manifests in a 1.28 percentage point decline in the likelihood of having children among women, with the average number of children per woman falling by 5.5%. Child populations decline disproportionately relative to adults, falling by 5.7% while the adult population shows minimal change. Critically, we demonstrate that these demographic shifts result from selective out-migration of families with more children rather than behavioral change. The family flight mechanism reflects deeper institutional decay: religious adherence falls by 9.5 percentage points (particularly among Catholics), and school enrollments decline by 6.4%. Our findings illuminate how the destruction of family-oriented social capital can reshape local populations, offering broader insights into the relationship between community institutions, demographic patterns, and residential sorting by family structure.
“Ballot Box or Moving Truck? Political Sorting and Neighborhood Change,” with Shuqing Chen, Ethan Kaplan, and Nolan Pope
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