Calories and Consequences: How Equalizing Food Access Could Increase Life Expectancy 

(Job Market Paper)

Abstract: 

Access to sufficient and nutritious food is a fundamental human right, yet global access remains highly unequal. This paper uses global macro data to examine the relationship between calorie availability and life expectancy and finds evidence consistent with laboratory findings: both underconsumption and overconsumption reduce longevity. Additional calorie intake increases life expectancy at low levels but the effect diminishes with higher consumption and becomes negative beyond 2,944 kilocalories per person per day. At low intake levels, an additional 1,000 kcal per person per day is associated with an 8-year increase in average life expectancy, whereas at high intake levels the same increase corresponds to a 9-year decline. Using the estimated optimal calorie level, countries are classified as operating in calorie surplus or deficit and a redistribution is simulated in which surplus calories from overnourished countries are reallocated to undernourished ones. Under redistribution, the share of the global population that could attain the optimal calorie intake increases from 18% during 1960–2010 to 38% in 2015. By 2020, it is sufficient to bring 100% of the population to the optimal level indicating that the world produces enough calories to eliminate hunger.