Evaluation

In this example case for the correlation of the development of top US-stocks (represented by the markets SP500, NYSE and NASDAQ) and covid deaths in the USA, initially an inverse relation can be observed. From early until mid 2020 the slow rise of covid deaths are accompanied by decreasing stock prices.
Then from mid 2020 until early 2021 the correlation is positive and both rising covid deaths and rising stock prices can be observed.

From early until late 2021 the correlation becomes inverse again but this time with rising stock prices and falling covid deaths. Following a spike in covid deaths in late 2021 seems to start a downward trend at NASDAQ again, while having no sudden impact on SP500 and NYSE, that keep increasing until an even larger spike in early 2022. This seems to be followed by a decrease in stock prices with a delay of 2-3 months in the case of SP500 and 1 months for NYSE. Then we see a return to an upward trend again for SP500 and NASDAQ at the end of 2022 when the covid deaths are already down to a consistent plateau below 1000. At the same time NASDAQ keeps plateauing at values between 500$ and 1000$.

One interesting observation is due to the overall increase if we also compare the stock market with the pre-covid times. In the years 2018 and 2019 the SP-500 and NYSE prices have been relatively stable compared to the jumps during covid but generally much lower. F.e. the highest SP500-value before 2020 was below 1000$, while the highest value after that was nearly 1500$. For NASDAQ, the situation is different, as there is already a noticeable downward trend before the pandemic started

It is notable, that the peak of SP500 and NYSE (representing larger companies) is much more extreme than the relatively steady increase of NASDAQ. This indicates that espacially larger companies profited during the pandemic with other peaks much above the pre-covid times, while NASDAQ failed even to reach the level before 2020.

Overall the development seems similar to the first plot. Again we observe a quick decline in the beginning of the pandemic, followed by mutual rise both in covid cases and stock prices until early 2021. This trend continues until a new spike in death rates, which is again followed by a price decrease with ca. 2 months delay. At last we see the covid numbers dropping to a plateau below 2000 and the market regenerating to its second highest point during this period. 

Also again we observe the general increase in stock prices. Before the covid outbreak they were plateauing between 400$ and 460$ most of the time, while after 2020 they had their low at 350$ and their high at nearly 700$.

The graph showing stock market prices and daily COVID-19 deaths in Europe from 2018 through early 2023 tells a story of the market's response to the pandemic. Initially, before the pandemic, the stock market experiences typical fluctuations. With the onset of COVID-19 and the start of deaths recorded in Europe, there's a notable drop in stock prices, reflecting the immediate impact of the pandemic on investor sentiment and economic outlook.

As the pandemic continues and deaths rise, the stock market begins a recovery phase. This counterintuitive rebound during a period of high daily deaths might reflect the market's response to emergency fiscal policies, monetary easing, and perhaps the anticipation of economic activities adapting to pandemic conditions.

Throughout 2021 and 2022, both the stock market and death rates show patterns of volatility. This likely mirrors the pandemic's waves, influenced by factors such as new virus variants, the progress of vaccination campaigns, and intermittent lockdowns.

Into 2022 and early 2023, the daily deaths decline, suggesting the effects of vaccination uptake, natural immunity accumulation, and improved medical treatments. The stock market in this phase appears less volatile, indicating that investors might have adapted to the ongoing presence of the virus and its impacts on the economy.

From the start of the graph until early 2020, the blue line shows relatively stable stock market prices with minor fluctuations, indicative of a stable pre-pandemic economic environment. The absence of the red line confirms that COVID-19 had not yet emerged as a health crisis.

As 2020 begins, the situation changes dramatically. With the emergence of COVID-19, represented by the rising red line, there is a sharp decline in stock prices. This plunge reflects the market's immediate reaction to the unforeseen global health emergency and its potential implications for the economy.

Following this initial shock, stock prices begin to recover, climbing back up even as the death rate from COVID-19 remains high. This recovery could suggest that the market has begun to price in the effects of the pandemic, including governmental and monetary responses aimed at stabilizing the economy.

As the timeline progresses through 2021 and 2022, both lines show peaks and troughs. These movements could correlate with subsequent waves of the pandemic, reflecting the ongoing challenges faced by the economy and public health systems, alongside the responses such as vaccination rollouts, changes in restrictions, and adjustments in consumer behavior and business operations.

Moving into the latter part of 2022 and into 2023, the red line shows a decline in daily deaths, which may indicate the effectiveness of vaccines, better treatments, and a gradual move towards endemicity. The blue line, representing stock market prices, exhibits some volatility but not as severe as during the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that the market may have found a new equilibrium or that investors have adapted to the ongoing presence of COVID-19.

All observed sectors show a sharp decline in the onset of the pandemic with the Industrials sector being the most drastic, dropping from nearly 100$ to about 60$. This economic field also takes the longest to recover from this initial drop. While both the Technology and Healthcare sectors reach the pre-covid price again within only a few months, the Industrials sector takes nearly a year - which may be attributed to supply chain disruptions and fluctuating commodity prices in other economic areas.

Interestingly, this segment seems, one recovered, to be the most stable of the three. Technology stocks reach a noticeable peak at the end of 2021 - reflecting the accelerated digital transformation during the pandemic - which is followed by a major decline in early 2022 again. The Healthcare field shows a very similar trend, although much less extreme. Compared to that Industrial companies reach the high point at the same time, but stay relatively stable from then on and even surpass this point again in late 2023.

Like one might expect, the Healthcare sector regenerate the fastest of the three and from that on shows a steady increase until late 2021, likely due to profiing from extended purchases in Health articles, pharmaceuticals and government spending. Also it has to be noted, that the Tech field shows the highest volatility during the pandemic, maybe caused by shifts between remote work usage during lockdowns and regular office work. Also this could be influenced by saturated demand for technology solutions that have already been satisfied by 2022. Compared to that, it can be said that the Healthcare sector showed the highest resilience when the pandemix started, while being volatile as well after peaking in late 2021, likely due to market adjustments and normalization of healthcare demand.