Research

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Working papers

Irrigation, adaptation and climate change: panel data evidence for Maize in Mexico (Job Market Paper) (latest version).

This paper demonstrates that the impact of climate change is different for rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Using a panel dataset of Maize yields in Mexico, I find that rainfed Maize is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. This sensitivity is weakened in irrigated Maize suggesting that the adoption of irrigation could be an effective tool to reduce not only precipitation uncertainties but also the damaging effects of raising temperatures. When combining the panel estimates of the paper with climate change projections by 2100, I conclude that rainfed Maize yields are expected to decrease by 4.7%-5.5% with raising temperatures accounting for about 80% of the loss and a declining precipitation accounting for the remaining 20%. Areas with high levels of rural poverty could be among the most affected. If rainfed Maize farmers manage to adapt to climate change in the long run, projected losses could be lowered. However, in the medium run I find no compelling evidence of adaptation. Specifically, farmers do not seem to adjust the amount land cultivated Maize, adopt irrigation or switch to more heat and drought tolerant crops as a response to climate change.

Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: an application to Mexico (dissertation paper) (latest version).

Peer-reviewed publications

Arellano-Gonzalez J., A. AghaKouchakc, M. C. Levy, Y. Qin, J. Burney, S. J. Davis and F. C. Moore. 2021. The adaptive benefits of agricultural water markets in California. Environmental Research Letters 16 044036. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abde5b

Arellano-Gonzalez J. and F. C. Moore. 2020. Intertemporal arbitrage of water and long-term agricultural investments: drought, groundwater banking and perennial cropping decisions in California. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(5): 1368–1382. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12123 .

Aburto-Oropeza O., J. Arellano Gonzalez, A. Yunez-Naude, A. Lopez-Feldman, J. Medellin-Azuara, S. Sandoval Solis, J.P. Ortiz-Partida, J. E. Taylor et al. 2018. Harnessing cross-border resources to confront climate change. Environmental Science and Policy 87: 128-132.

Mora Rivera J.J. and J. Arellano Gonzalez. 2016. Remittances as expenditures drivers in rural Mexico. Estudios Fronterizos, nueva epoca, vol. 17, num. 33.

Arellano Gonzalez J. 2015. Efectos de los cambios en el programa Procampo en la economía rural del sureste mexicano. Economía Sociedad y Territorio, vol. XV, núm. 48.

Mora Rivera J.J. and J. Arellano Gonzalez. 2012. Migration and Remittances Effects on Consumption of the poorest: the Mexican Case. Panorama Económico, número 14, vol. 7.

Yúnez-Naude A., J. Arellano Gonzalez and J. Méndez Navarro. 2010. Cambios en el bienestar de 1990 a 2005: un estudio espacial para México. Estudios Económicos, vol 25. No. 2.

Mendelsohn R., J. Arellano Gonzalez and P. Christensen. 2009. A Ricardian Analysis of Mexican Farms. Environment and Development Economics, vol. 15, issue 02.

Book chapters

Ortiz-Partida J. P., S. Sandoval Solis, J. Arellano Gonzalez, J. Medellin Azuara and J.E. Taylor. 2020. Managing water differently: Integrated Water Resources Management as a framework for adaptation to climate change in Mexico. Chapter 6 of Integrated Water Resource Management. Cases from Africa, Asia, Australia, Latin America and the US. E. de Oliveira Veira, S. Sandoval-Solis, V. de Albuquerque Pedrosa and J.P. Ortiz-Partida (eds). Switzerland, Springer.

Yúnez-Naude A., J. Arellano Gonzalez and J. Méndez Navarro. 2016. Dinámica del consumo, la pobreza y la desigualdad municipal en México (1990-2005). Chapter 3 in Los dilemas territoriales del desarrollo en América Latina, F. Modrego Benito y J. A. Berdegué (eds). Universidad De Los Andes, Bogotá, D. C., Colombia.

Other work in progress

The spillovers of climate change in rural economies: a general equilibrium approach with D. Manning and J. E. Taylor.

Migration and climate change in rural Mexico: the role of land certification with K. Jessoe, F. Aragon and M. Gonzalez-Navarro.