Arellano-González, J. 2024. Estimando el efecto del clima en la agricultura con el valor productivo de la tierra agrícola. EconoQuantum, 21(2), 47–76. https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.vi21i2.7344
Arellano-Gonzalez J., A. AghaKouchakc, M. C. Levy, Y. Qin, J. Burney, S. J. Davis and F. C. Moore. 2021. The adaptive benefits of agricultural water markets in California. Environmental Research Letters 16 044036. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abde5b
Arellano-Gonzalez J. and F. C. Moore. 2020. Intertemporal arbitrage of water and long-term agricultural investments: drought, groundwater banking and perennial cropping decisions in California. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(5): 1368–1382. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12123 .
Aburto-Oropeza O., J. Arellano Gonzalez, A. Yunez-Naude, A. Lopez-Feldman, J. Medellin-Azuara, S. Sandoval Solis, J.P. Ortiz-Partida, J. E. Taylor et al. 2018. Harnessing cross-border resources to confront climate change. Environmental Science and Policy 87: 128-132.
Mora Rivera J.J. and J. Arellano Gonzalez. 2016. Remittances as expenditures drivers in rural Mexico. Estudios Fronterizos, nueva epoca, vol. 17, num. 33.
Arellano Gonzalez J. 2015. Efectos de los cambios en el programa Procampo en la economía rural del sureste mexicano. Economía Sociedad y Territorio, vol. XV, núm. 48.
Mora Rivera J.J. and J. Arellano Gonzalez. 2012. Migration and Remittances Effects on Consumption of the poorest: the Mexican Case. Panorama Económico, número 14, vol. 7.
Yúnez-Naude A., J. Arellano Gonzalez and J. Méndez Navarro. 2010. Cambios en el bienestar de 1990 a 2005: un estudio espacial para México. Estudios Económicos, vol 25. No. 2.
Mendelsohn R., J. Arellano Gonzalez and P. Christensen. 2009. A Ricardian Analysis of Mexican Farms. Environment and Development Economics, vol. 15, issue 02.
Weather shocks, prices and productivity: Evidence from staples in Mexico (link).
In this paper, we investigate the effect of weather shocks on the price of two crops of great importance in Mexican agriculture: white corn and dry beans. We rely on panel data techniques applied to a 20-year long panel of prices at the market/city level. Our results show that positive temperature and negative precipitation shocks of at least 0.5 standard deviations relative to the climate normal have immediate and lagged positive effects on the price of these crops. The immediate effect is about 2.0%, while the lagged effect is between 1.0% and 2.5%, depending on the timing of the shock within the crop's growing period. We also show that one of the mechanisms explaining the effect of weather shocks on the price of these crops is their detrimental effect on productivity, especially for rainfed production.
Temperature shocks and their effect on the price of agricultural products: panel data evidence from vegetables in Mexico (link).
In this paper, we estimate the effect of temperature shocks on the price of nine vegetables with a high contribution to Mexico's non core inflation. We utilize monthly panel data of the price index of each vegetable at the city level which we combine with high resolution weather data of the producing states. For every city, we construct a relevant temperature measure by weighting the different temperatures of its supplier states using historic production shares and distance. Our findings elicit a convex U-shaped relationship between temperature and vegetable prices and a high sensitivity of the latter to contemporaneous and lagged temperature shocks that occur within their growing period. Our findings also suggest that temperature shocks may have a detrimental effect on vegetable yields which may be an important driver of the impact on prices.
Irrigation, adaptation and climate change: panel data evidence for Maize in Mexico (link).
In this paper, I use an 18-year long panel data set of maize yields and high resolution weather data at the municipality level in Mexico to shed light on the differentiated effects that climate change may have in rainfed and irrigated agriculture. I find that rainfed maize is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. This sensitivity is weakened in irrigated maize suggesting that the use of irrigation reduces not only the dependency of production on direct precipitation but also the damaging effects of warmer temperatures. When the panel estimates are applied to climate change projections for 2100 I conclude that, in the absence of adaptation, rainfed maize yields could decrease by 3.3-4.0% on average depending on the climate model and scenario with rising temperatures accounting for about 80% of the loss and a declining precipitation accounting for the remaining 20%. Areas with high levels of rural poverty could be among the most affected with some municipalities losing up to 13.5% of maize yields.
Ortiz-Partida J. P., S. Sandoval Solis, J. Arellano Gonzalez, J. Medellin Azuara and J.E. Taylor. 2020. Managing water differently: Integrated Water Resources Management as a framework for adaptation to climate change in Mexico. Chapter 6 of Integrated Water Resource Management. Cases from Africa, Asia, Australia, Latin America and the US. E. de Oliveira Veira, S. Sandoval-Solis, V. de Albuquerque Pedrosa and J.P. Ortiz-Partida (eds). Switzerland, Springer.
Yúnez-Naude A., J. Arellano Gonzalez and J. Méndez Navarro. 2016. Dinámica del consumo, la pobreza y la desigualdad municipal en México (1990-2005). Chapter 3 in Los dilemas territoriales del desarrollo en América Latina, F. Modrego Benito y J. A. Berdegué (eds). Universidad De Los Andes, Bogotá, D. C., Colombia.