Results & Discussion

HOW URBAN FACTORS MAY INFLUENCE BIODIVERSITY VISITATION IN EDMONTON?

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN WILDLIFE VISITATION RATES-URBAN FACTORS

A data complexity reduction analysis was performed to determine the associations between the wildlife visitation rates and urban factors. The analysis focused on the five common and rare species of mammals and birds identified as the standardized response variables. 11 geographical variables were considered as predictor variables. To simplify the data, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was utilized, followed by direct gradient analysis, ordering first the urban factors and then the standardized wildlife visitation rate values (Figure 17).

Figure 17. Direct Gradient Analysis applied to PCA

Direct Gradient Analysis to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for identifying the associations between urban factors (represented by red vectors) and standardized wildlife visitation rates of common (a) and rare (b) mammal species (green vectors) as well as bird species (blue vectors). The blue and green colours correspond to the colours of the dots in Figures 9 and 10, while the number from 1 to 90 represent the monitoring sites classified according to component 1, and they are depicted on the map on the right. The black sites can be considered as located in more transformed areas, while the brown sites can be seen as located in more natural areas within the city.  The acronyms used for the urban factors include Distance to the City Centre [DCC], Distance to the Nearest Road [NRo], Distance to the Nearest Trail [NTr], Distance to the Nearest Water Body [NWB], Roads Density [RD], Trails Density [TD], and the proportion of different land cover classes around the monitoring sites, namely Water and Natural areas [WAT], Developed areas [DEV], Modified Areas [MOD], Naturally Wooded or forested areas [WOOD], and Naturally Non-Wooded [NWOOD].  

Which groups of urban factors influence wildlife visitation rates in Edmonton, and to what extent? 

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In brief, species of mammals are more associated with natural areas (urban avoiders) and bird species are more adapted to urban areas (urban exploiters). 

No clear group differentiation is evident among all urban factors (Figure 17). However, the second component (Comp. 2) appears to be associated with the presence of humans and their transportation activities on trails (vectors Nearest Trail [NTr] and trails density [TD]), as well as the distance from highly urbanized areas like the city center (vector DCC). The first component (Comp. 1) distinguishes monitoring sites located in areas that have undergone significant transformation (Comp. 1 < 0.0) or areas where natural land covers and low transformation are prevalent (Comp. 1 > 0.0), as depicted on the map in Figure 17 (right). This is supported by the examination of vectors of forested areas (WOOD) and natural and water areas (WAT), which are diametrically opposed to transformed zones like urban parks (MOD) or completely urbanized areas (DEV). 


After analyzing the relationship between urban factors and standardized wildlife visitation rates for both common and rare species, it was discovered that most common bird and mammal species are strongly associated with component 1. This is demonstrated by the almost complete overlap of the green (common mammals) and blue (common birds) vectors with some urban factor vectors in the direction of this component. Larger mammals, such as coyotes and White-tailed deer, were more frequently found in natural areas, while smaller mammals, such as red squirrels, were more correlated with urban factors indicating transformation, such as trail density, making them more common in cities. The two Lepus species (White-tailed jackrabbit and snowshoe hare) were found to be correlated with distance to the nearest water body (NWB) and forested areas (WOOD). Only the Mallard, among the common bird species, tended to be spotted in natural areas dominated by forests, while others appeared to be more comfortable in urbanized areas. 

Rare species also showed a similar preference for component 1, particularly for birds. It is noteworthy that in this case, most of the rare mammal species, such as cougar, lynx, and American badger, were more related to component 2, but the size of the vectors indicated that the vectors in this component that represent human mobilization are those that these animals would try to avoid. This was confirmed by analyzing the original data frame (Table 1), where these animals were detected in sites such as 89 and 37, which are located on the periphery, far from downtown in naturally wooded areas (Figure 17 - right). Lastly, it is important to note that sites located in the negative values of both components (Comp 1<0.0 and Comp 2<0.0), which are opposite to DCC and NTr vectors, and where no common and rare species tend to be spotted, indicate that the closer the monitoring site is to downtown, the less likely it is to detect common and rare species. 

Table 2. Wildlife Visitation vectors

Correlations and statistical significance between biodiversity vectors of common and rare species and principal components depicted in Figure 17. Green and blue colours and numbers in brackets represent the species shown in Figures 9 and 10 ,

Significance codes:  0 ‘***’, 0.001 ‘**’, 0.01 ‘*’, 0.05 ‘.’, 0.1 or greater ‘ ’

Table 2 shows that only the analysis of common species has statistical significance (p-value < 0.05). For rare species, the lack of records in the monitoring data affects the significance of the conclusions. As previously mentioned, most species are correlated with component 1, with 60% of species specifically showing this correlation. Almost all the mammal models were significant, with only the red squirrel showing no significance. However, the red squirrel has a strong negative correlation with component 2, particularly with trail density (TD), where they are typically spotted. Among birds, only the crow and magpies were significant common species with a strong negative correlation with component 1. The magpie is typically found in urbanized areas, while the crows are found near water bodies. Although the rare species analysis was not significant, Table 2 values confirm that rare species, especially birds, are more associated with component 1. 

PREDICTION OF URBAN FACTORS THRESHOLDS

In order to determine thresholds in urban areas that could be useful in making decisions about future monitoring or urban planning strategies, it was used multivariate regression tree analysis (MRT) to identify groups of common mammal species (Figure 18-a) and bird species (Figure 18-b) that were detected in different monitoring sites, while imposing the predictor variable (urban feature) as a constraint to create clusters. The main goal of this analysis was to select the predictor factor and threshold that explained the variance in the wildlife visitation rate of the common species. By doing so, it became possible to identify values in urban factors that could help identify more or fewer individuals of different species. This information can be used to support new monitoring sites, such as increasing camera trapping in areas further from trails so that other species can be identified, or to develop new site-specific strategies, such as ecological restoration to increase visitation.

Figure 18. Multivariate regression tree analysis

Multivariate regression tree (MRT) analysis to group common mammal species (a) and bird species (b) by imposing urban factors that could explain the variation in the standardized wildlife visitation rates. 

Colorus illustrate the five common species analyzed. The "n" value indicates the number of monitoring sites included in the prediction of each leaf of the multivariate tree. Values before "n" indicate the sum of the squared error for the group. Inverted histograms are used to depict species that were not detected in the generated cluster. 

Predictor variables included in MRT: Naturally Wooded or forested areas [WOOD], Distance to the Nearest Trail [NTr], Water and Natural areas [WAT], Modified Areas [MOD], Distance to the City Centre [DCC]

What thresholds can be predicted in urban factors as a foundation of strategies for the protection of the most common and rare mammal and bird species detected in the City of Edmonton? 

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Common mammals species are more easily detected at:


Common bird species are more easily detected at:


This analysis focused solely on the common species that exhibited statistical significance (Table 2). In terms of mammals, the presence of forested areas (WOOD) and proximity to trails (NTr) were found to be the most significant urban factors influencing the frequency of species detections. Most common species were detected when the forest surrounding the monitoring sites exceeded 5%, except for the red squirrel, which displayed more activity in less forested areas (< 5%). Larger mammals such as coyotes and white-tailed deer were detected more frequently when the distance to trails was greater than 40 m, whereas smaller mammals were detected in sites closer to trails (< 40 m). However, the snowshoe hare appeared to be more adaptable, as it was detected in sites further from trails too.

As for birds, three factors seemed to influence the frequency of detection for the most commonly found species. Although the direct gradient analysis indicated some adaptation of birds to urbanized areas, the MRT analysis showed that these species were only detected in 9 sites where the surrounding area had over 60% transformed land cover (MOD), and detection increased if these sites were located more than 11 km from the city centre. Therefore, there may be other factors affecting bird detection rates, such as the percentage of water bodies surrounding the sites, where mallards were detected if the percentage of water bodies was nearly 50%, as observed in two sites (n = 2).

The aforementioned MRT analysis should be approached with caution, as the error exceeded 60%. Nevertheless, this is the first insight that the WildEdmonton monitoring program has obtained regarding which urban factors can influence visitation rates. These results can serve as a baseline for decision-making in municipal planning.

CONCLUSIONS


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