Introduction

Climate change in Canada

Climate change presents a pressing concern for Canada. From 1948 to 2012, the country experienced a staggering increase of 1.7°C in its annual average surface air temperature over landmass, twice the global average.1 Projections indicate that this trend will persist, with Canada expected to undergo accelerated warming rates compared to other parts of the world over this century.2 Moreover, regional disparities within Canada have become apparent.1,3 Provinces, territories, and communities are experiencing the effects of climate change inequitably.1,3 Alberta, for instance, is already grappling with increased occurrences and magnitudes of extreme weather events, droughts, and wildfires.1,3,4

Climate change and health impacts

Climate change and the consequent climate-related hazards pose unique challenges to the health of the physically/mentally, socially, and culturally diverse communities across the country.3,5 Two key pathways through which climate change will impact health are weather and air pollution.3 For instance, anticipated increases in the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves may lead to elevated morbidity and mortality rates, particularly in relation to respiratory, cardiovascular, and mental health disorders.3,6,7 Moreover, climate change influences exposure to ambient air pollution stemming from ground-level ozone, wildfires, mould, pollen, and spores, resulting in the exacerbation of respiratory conditions and allergies, increased cardiovascular disease risk, and premature mortality.3,6,8,9 Heat events can also co-occur with air pollution events.10-14 Future projections (2050) indicate worsening air quality (e.g. O3) in many Canadian communities due to events like wildfires.15-17 Various extensive studies have reported positive associations between summer temperatures, levels of air pollutants, and mortality rates attributable to heat on days characterized by elevated air pollutant levels.14,18-19  Further, both urban and rural regions will encounter challenges, such as the urban heat island effect in cities and limited opportunities for adaptation measures in rural areas.3,13

Inequities and vulnerable population

There are significant inequities regarding the health impacts of climate change. Recent climate change-related extreme weather events across Canada evidenced the level of municipal unpreparedness and disparity across populations.20-22 For example, racialized, immigrant, and older adult populations, those without access to green space and low-income neighbourhoods are often the most affected.23-27 Consequently, health risks in Canada are changing, not only in geographic areas but also in populations at risk.2

Importance of this study

Considering the growing threats of climate change to health across Canada and the inequities among different regions, provinces, territories and communities, the assessment of risk is therefore critical to designing equitable adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies for cities. There is an urgent need to develop indicators to be used to evaluate the nation and communities’ capacity and prepare health systems to manage health risks in the face of climate change. This pilot study will be helpful for informing current strategies, allocating resources, and informing larger-scale studies at the provincial and national levels.

Objective 1:

Develop vulnerability indices using pre-determined dissemination area-level factors of exposures, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Objective 2:

To assess if the vulnerable index is a significant predictor of health events incidence.