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セミナー予定 (2026年度 秋)

Seminar Schedules (AY2026 Autumn)

山本 鉄平 (早稲田大学 政治経済学術院)

Teppei Yamamoto ( Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University )

日時 date：2026年9月10日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title： Using Conjoint Tasks for Voting Advice Applications

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ： Voting advice applications (VAAs) are widely used across multi-party democracies to aid voters' decision-making about their electoral choices among parties or candidates. A typical VAA features dozens of policy issues and asks a voter about their preferred position on each of the issues, one by one. The application then calculates the voter's overall score indicating how closely their position matches each of the parties or candidates. This common approach, however, suffers from several important limitations. First, the calculation of the overall match scores involves adding up scores on individual issues with arbitrary (typically uniform) weights, implicitly making a strong assumption about how much voters care about each issue. Second, the calculation also fails to incorporate possible interactions between different issues, ignoring the possibility that some voters might, for example, take into account the consistency of multiple policies as a package when they make a vote choice. Third, responses on politically sensitive policy issues, such as gender and ethnicity, might be prone to social desirability bias.

In this research, we propose a novel type of VAA based on conjoint tasks. Instead of asking about individual policy issues, we instead present packages of issue positions and ask voters to choose which hypothetical party or candidate they would vote for in an election. This approach overcomes the limitations of existing VAAs by way of measuring both direction and intensity of voters' preferences about policy issues via conjoint tasks (Bansak et al. 2023). Moreover, the responses collected through this application can be analyzed with a variety of statistical techniques for standard conjoint survey experiments, which have been rapidly developed over the recent years.

Our application uses a new algorithm to calculate a voter's overall proximity to the target policy bundles on the basis of their own conjoint responses. The algorithm is simple, fast, and scalable to large-scale deployment for public use in actual elections. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm via simulations and implement it for the two Japanese National Elections in July 2025 and February 2026.

濱秋 純哉  (法政大学 経済学部)

Junya Hamaaki( Faculty of Economics, Hosei University )

日時 date：2026年9月17日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：Divorce and Loss of Marital Gains from the Division of Labor: Evidence from a Pension Reform in Japan 

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：We examine the impact of Japan's 2007 pension reform on divorce decisions. Prior to the reform, many Japanese couples maintained a traditional division of labor into old age, where the primary earner continued to receive income through employment-related pensions, while the spouse contributed through household work. The reform allowed spouses to claim half of the primary earner's pension contributions accrued during marriage in the event of divorce, enabling them to capture the economic gains of the traditional division of labor without remaining married. Using the reform as a natural experiment, we test the hypothesis that the reduction in these marital gains increased the likelihood of divorce. Our analysis reveals that among couples experiencing the largest reduction in marital gains, the incidence of divorce rose by 10 to 20% in the year of the reform and the following three years. This finding highlights the important role of marital gains associated with the division of labor in shaping divorce decisions. 

上田 晃三 (早稲田大学 政治経済学術院）

Kozo Ueda( Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University )

日時 date：2026年10月8日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：Public and Self Insurance in Job Search and Consumption: Evidence from Bank Transaction Data 

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：How do private savings and public unemployment insurance (UI) interact in shaping job transitions? This paper examines the effects of UI and private wealth on reemployment wages and consumption using novel bank transaction data covering 56,000 individuals in Japan. We develop a job-search model in which unemployed workers choose target wages and consumption while facing UI benefits and financial buffers. The model predicts that UI raises target wages, whereas the effect of wealth is theoretically ambiguous. Empirically, both UI generosity and wealth are associated with higher reemployment wages, and the effect of UI remains strong even among wealthy individuals. Consumption rises with reemployment wages and falls following job separation, particularly for individuals with limited liquidity. UI benefits substantially mitigate these consumption losses and help sustain consumption during nonemployment. Moreover, by increasing reemployment wages, UI continues to affect consumption after reemployment. The results suggest that private wealth and UI play distinct roles in shaping labor market behavior and consumption dynamics and highlight the importance of liquidity constraints in evaluating unemployment insurance policies.

Lester Lusher (University of Pittsburg)

日時 date：2026年10月15日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：13:00-14:30 

タイトル title：When Samples Shape Significance 

発表言語 language：ENG

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：Random sampling yields unbiased estimates, yet sampling variation alone can produce incorrect conclusions. Using a setting where repeated draws from the same data-generating process are observable, we replicate findings from 24 papers in top economics journals and re-estimate each result using 40 independent resamples. Across 3,640 resampled results, t-statistics shrink by 31%, frequently leading to lost significance. Proxies for researcher degrees of freedom and sampling noise predict reduced significance. Our exercise provides novel evidence quantifying the effect of sampling variability on empirical research and highlights how statistical evidence can vary even when holding research design fixed.

渡辺 安虎 (東京大学 大学院経済学研究科、公共政策大学院)

Yasutora Watanabe( Faculty of Economics and Public Policy, University of Tokyo )

日時 date：2026年10月22日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：TBA

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：TBA

Sueyoul Kim (Korea Development Institute）

日時 date：2026年10月29日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：TBA

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：TBA

高山 太輔 ( 京都大学 大学院農学研究科)

Taisuke Takayama( Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University )

日時 date：2026年11月5日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：TBA

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：TBA

今井 泰佑( 大阪大学 社会経済研究所)

Taisuke Imai( Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka )

日時 date：2026年11月19日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：TBA

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：TBA

野津 成希( 大阪大学 大学院国際公共政策研究科)

Naruki Notsu ( Osaka School of International Public Policy, University of Osaka )

日時 date：2026年11月26日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：TBA

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：TBA

小笠原 浩太( 東京科学大学工学院)

Kota Ogasawara ( Department of Industrial Engineering and Economics, Institute of Science Tokyo )

日時 date：2026年12月10日（木 Thurs） Google Calendar

時間 time：16:30-18:00

タイトル title：TBA

発表言語 language：TBA

会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室  Room 03-G in Research Building

概要 abstract ：TBA