Earthquakes and Faults:
Understanding Japan’s Seismic Islands
［International Research Institute of Disaster Science ］
Professor Shinji Toda
Course period: January 21,2026 (Wed) - March 24,2026 (Tue)
Registration opens: November 5 (Wed)
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This course provides a scientific overviews of earthquake mechanisms, seismogenic zone in the Japanese archipelago, and their associated hazard levels, incorporating the latest research findings.
It aims to develop students’ ability to accurately interpret earthquake-related information and seismic hazard maps.
In Week 1, we will cover the fundamental principles of earthquake science.
When considering disaster prevention and mitigation, it is essential to understand the geological processes that cause earthquakes.
Why do earthquakes occur so frequently in the Japanese archipelago? How does bedrock displacement (fault movement) generate seismic shaking?
In addition to these basic concepts, Week 1 will also explore why the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (Kobe Earthquake) and the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Tohoku Earthquake) became major turning points in the development of earthquake science and disaster prevention in Japan.
In Week 2, we will examine shallow-focus earthquakes, such as the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake and the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake. Students will learn the characteristics of active faults, the mechanisms by which they generate destructive earthquakes, the methods used to identify, survey, evaluate them, and how to calculate the magnitudes and probabilities of future large earthquakes.
As typical recent examples, we will introduce the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, and active fault-type earthquakes around the world.
In Week 3, we will explore the mechanisms of seismic activity that occur as clusters in space and time, including mainshock-aftershock sequences, seismic swarms, and successive major earthquakes.
Specifically, we will introduce basic concepts of earthquake statistics, the propagation of stress (strain) to surrounding areas caused by a main shock or volcanic activity, and the triggering effect of earthquake. These topics will be illustrated with examples such as the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake and the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake.
In Week 4, we will examine major earthquakes expected to strike Japan in the future, including the anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, the large earthquakes beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, and shallow crustal (active fault-type) earthquakes.
In addition, we will explain the overall process of creating seismic hazard maps, highlighting key principles, important caveats associated with long-term forecasts covering the next 10 to 30 years. The week concludes with insights on how to prepare effectively for future major earthquakes.
※This video is played in Japanese.
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