Research

Impacts of a Warming Climate on Africa's Weather and Extreme Events

The weather and climate of Africa are influenced by the African easterly jet (AEJ) and the West African Monsoon (WAM). These features dictate rainfall patterns across Africa and modulate high-impact weather events on the continent, in the Atlantic, and beyond. My research group uses convection-permitting simulations to more accurately model the multiscale nature of African weather, aiming to better understand how rainfall extremes and high-impact weather events will change with a warming climate. Here is the paper in GRL of our latest research on this topic!

Mesoscales Convective Systems

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is an organized group of moist convective clouds spanning a large area. They play a crucial role in triggering heavy rainfall and severe weather, and contribute significantly to the total precipitation in the tropics. I have developed the Tracking Algorithm for Mesoscale Convective Systems (TAMS) to objectively identify, track, classify, and assign atmospheric variables to MCSs. My research using TAMS has shown that long-lived MCSs over Africa are often associated with African easterly waves (read the paper here).

My research group uses TAMS to study both observed and simulated MCSs, as it can be applied to both satellite-derived and model data. This help us better understand MCS characteristics and their evolution over the tropics, evaluate their representation in weather and climate models, and assess how they will change in a warming climate.

TAMS is an open-source Python package! TAMS is a unique grid-independent MCS tracker. Be sure to check out our latest TAMS publication, which describes the software and tools.

African Easterly Waves & Tropical Cyclone Genesis

African easterly waves (AEWs) are synoptic-scale waves that propagate westward across Africa and the Atlantic. They are significant weather events affecting Africa, the Caribbean, and the eastern US. They also serve as seeds for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. My research has shown that even before an AEW reaches the Atlantic waters, factors such as its initiation location over Africa, topography, interactions and phasing with convection at the center of the circulation, and moisture availability over the continent can influence the likelihood of an AEW developing into a tropical cyclone seed as it reaches the west coast of Africa.

In addition to using observations to study AEWs and MCSs, I design and employ convection-permitting simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) to properly resolve mesoscale and moisture interactions that influence the evolution of AEWs and MCSs.

In my most recent research, we found that adding more moisture to the atmosphere over Africa and the Atlantic causes AEWs to take longer to develop into tropical cyclones. Check out the paper!

Advancing the Weather & Climate of Central America and the Caribbean

The Tropical Systems Group collaborates closely with and supports the Mesoamerica Affinity Group (MAAG)—an NSF NCAR and community-led effort to advance weather and climate science across Central America and the Caribbean. As a co-lead of MAAG, I am committed to producing high-resolution datasets for researchers in the region to help advance MAAG scientific goals and better prepare communities for future weather and climate events.

To the right is an animation of the first two-week MPAS hindcast simulation of Hurricane Maria (2017) as it moved through the Caribbean. I produced this simulation for MAAG, and it is now publicly available for the community. We welcome MAAG members and the broader research community to explore and use this rich dataset, which captures a highly active weather period in the region.

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