History Of Hurricanes

General forecasters, lead forecasters, and meteorologists all practice the study of tropical cyclones. They know a lot about hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, etc. There are many ways that they track and predict hurricanes. They have hurricane hunter planes, weather models, hurricane cones, satellites, above-earth weather surveillance radar, scientific devices floating in the ocean, etc. These devices are able to measure winds, air and sea temperatures, and waves

Hurricane hunter planes fly into and around hurricanes and collect data that help forecasters make their predictions precise. The planes and the people inside them help people who research hurricanes better understand the hurricane cycle. Then the hurricane researchers can revamp their prediction models. The two "Lockheed WP-3D Orion" hurricane hunter planes of the NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) explore every single change in wind and pressure.

Using weather models, or computer simulations, you can see when a hurricane forms, where it is possibly going to go, and how bad it will be. This can help local officials release evacuation orders and warnings to keep people safe from hurricanes coming. Initial data, current weather conditions that is constantly being updated, goes in, and educated forecasts come out. The American model is called the GFS, and the European model is called the ECMWF. A few models are created each day. A meteorologist can look at a model and say, "These are our probable paths, this is our cone." A cone is a cone shape on a map of the area surrounding the hurricane that shows where the hurricane is predicted to go. Meteorologists think that the hurricane will travel down around the middle of the cone. If the path that they think the hurricane is going to take changes, they will change the cone. 

Spaghetti models are models that actually have multiple models within them. Each spaghetti path is a model, and spaghetti models have many spaghetti paths. A spaghetti path is a path that the hurricane might take. It is called a spaghetti model because the paths look like spaghetti. Spaghetti models can help meteorologists make cones. 

There are many different ways to predict hurricanes. It is important to know when and where a hurricane is going to hit in advance, so that you can be prepared.