Is New York Turning Red?

Despite pushback from many New Yorkers, the rally showed that Trump still has strong support and raised questions about whether future elections will be more competitive, especially in suburban areas. While New York has long had a Democratic majority, regions like Long Island are starting to lean Republican. With Republicans sweeping all four districts in the 2022 midterms and holding many local offices, they remain optimistic about further gains in the area (2).

Additionally, Kristy Marmorato recently made history by becoming the first Republican elected to the City Council in the Bronx in over 20 years, representing District 13. Her victory shows a shift in the Bronx’s voter sentiment, which has traditionally leaned Democratic (3).

Local leaders claim that the political dynamics are shifting, citing recent polls that show a narrowing gap between Harris and Trump in New York. These changes could signify a more moderate New York in future elections (4).

Adding to these complexities, a recent NYT/Siena College poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris is facing historically low support in New York City, with only 57.5% of likely voters approving of her. This is the lowest approval rating for a Democratic nominee in decades, reflecting a broader decline in confidence toward Democratic leadership as the election nears, especially in crucial regions like New York. (5)

Images created by Aanya Khanna with poll data from 270 To Win (5, 6).

According to Nate Cohn, Chief Political Analyst at The New York Times, Harris currently experiences her narrowest lead in the national polling average since the Democratic convention. The national polls have indicated a slight shift toward Harris. However, this shift is only about a point, making the race increasingly competitive. (7)

In conclusion, the recent Trump rally in New York was a landmark event, it highlighted the potential for significant shifts in the state's politics. As traditional Democratic cities like New York face historically low support for Democratic leaders, the rise of Republican enthusiasm in areas such as Long Island and the Bronx signals a competitive future. 

The changing political dynamics, seen through the rally's turnout and the declining approval ratings for key Democratic figures, emphasize a growing divide in voter sentiment. The trend signals challenges as even the most Democratic cities in the US become increasingly polarized. It shows the need for bipartisan collaboration to bridge the differences in public sentiment.

Aanya Khanna is a student at Stuyvesant High School. She helped conduct letter writing in “Vote Forward” a non-partisan organization dedicated to increasing voter turnout. She is also going to work at the polls on election day.

Notes

1. Novi Zhukovsky, “Trump Turns Madison Square Garden Red as Tens of Thousands Swarm the City for Campaign Rally,” The New York Sun, 28 Oct. 2024, www.nysun.com/article/trump-turns-madison-square-garden-red-as-thousands-swarm-the-city-for-campaign-rally. 

2. Emily Ngo, “Republicans Gaining Ground in Long Island Amid Changing Voter Sentiment,” Politico, 8 Nov. 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/08/ny-election-results-house-races-00126170.

3. Ginia Bellafante, “Why the Bronx Voted Republican for the First Time in a Generation,” The New York Times, 10 Nov. 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/nyregion/bronx-election-republican-kristy-mamorato.html.

4. Micheal Dorgan, “Harris’ Polling in NYC Is Lowest in Decades for Democratic Nominee: NYT Poll,” Fox News, 26 Oct. 2024, www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-polling-in-nyc-is-lowest-in-decades-for-democratic-nominee-nyt-poll.

5. 270 To Win, “New York 2024 Presidential Election Polls,” 270 To Win, Oct 2024, https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/new-york.

6. 270 To Win, “New York 2020 Presidential Election Polls,” 270 To Win, Oct 2020, https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/new-york/.

7. Nate Cohn, “Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump,” The New York Times, Oct. 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html.

Works Cited

Bellafante, Ginia. “Why the Bronx Voted Republican for the First Time in a Generation.” The New York Times, 10 Nov. 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/nyregion/bronx-election-republican-kristy-mamorato.html.

Cohn, Nate. “Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump.” The New York Times, Oct. 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html.

Dorgan, Michael. “Harris’ Polling in NYC Is Lowest in Decades for Democratic Nominee: NYT Poll.” Fox News, 26 Oct. 2024, www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-polling-in-nyc-is-lowest-in-decades-for-democratic-nominee-nyt-poll.

Ngo, Emily. “Why Is Trump Campaigning in Blue New York?” Politico, 18 Sept. 2024, www.politico.com/news/2024/09/18/trump-campaign-new-york-00179735. 

Ngo, Emily. “Republicans Gaining Ground in Long Island Amid Changing Voter Sentiment.” Politico, 8 Nov. 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/08/ny-election-results-house-races-00126170.

Zhukovsky, Novi. “Trump Turns Madison Square Garden Red as Tens of Thousands Swarm the City for Campaign Rally.” The New York Sun, 28 Oct. 2024, www.nysun.com/article/trump-turns-madison-square-garden-red-as-thousands-swarm-the-city-for-campaign-rally. 

270 To Win. “New York 2024 Presidential Election Polls.” 270 To Win, Oct 2024,

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/new-york.

270 To Win. “New York 2020 Presidential Election Polls.” 270 To Win, Oct 2020,

  https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/new-york/.