Sometimes You Can't See Climate Change

Over the past few weeks, much of Southern California has been ravaged by wildfires raging around Los Angeles and other southern areas in the state. We watch as videos explode online of the Hollywood sign burning or celebrities posting about their destroyed homes. But wasn’t California experiencing a period of heavy rainfall over the past year? How did these fires seem to erupt out of nowhere? 

In late December of 2022, areas all around California began experiencing heavy flooding. According to the article “Rainfall in California: Special Reference to 2023 Rains That Caused Floods“ by Sanju Purohit, “The extensive rainfall provided much-needed relief from the recent drought, helping to replenish reservoirs and groundwater basins.” Many people throughout California began to relax when the sudden surge of water ended the multi-year drought that had plagued the region. While they still had to deal with the damage from the floods, the reservoirs and groundwater basins were now full with water. Some people began to think that climate change was losing its grip over the climate in California, believing these rains were a sign of improvement.

However, the drastic change from drought to flooding was actually caused by a phenomenon called “hydroclimate volatility.” The study “Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth” from UCLA defines hydroclimate volatility as “sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions.” California has seen a significant increase in these types of conditions over the past decade. According to contributing author of the previously mentioned study Daniel Swain, “This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold.” So, even though California began to experience a wet season that brought about filled reservoirs and groundwater basins, the state was still at the mercy of climate change. The BBC article “Climate 'whiplash' linked to raging LA fires” states that these wet conditions “then flipped again to very dry conditions in the autumn and winter of 2024.” These dry conditions then prompted the raging wildfires dominating most of Southern California today. 

But is California the only place affected by this “hydroclimate volatility”? No. In fact, according to the UCLA study, “these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia.” Therefore, California isn’t even the region most affected by hydroclimate volatility; these African and Asian regions experience these changes in a more drastic way. Overall, these conditions have increased 31-66% around the globe since the 20th century and are continuing to grow (UCLA). 

So, even though climate conditions seem to be reverting back to how they were decades ago, this change does not necessarily mean climate change has been solved or avoided. This is important to remember here in Massachusetts, because even though we’re seeing more snow this year compared to previous years, it doesn’t mean that climate change is going away. According to On the Snow’s “Massachusetts Snow Report,” “Snowpack levels across Massachusetts are currently 87% of normal.” But, since most of the world is experiencing this hydroclimate volatility at this time, we all need to remember that one winter with a lot of snow does not mean climate change has gone away. Rather, it is still an omnipresent problem that constantly affects people all over the world, even when it seems as though the climate is healing itself.