How do the Opinions of Your Peers Compare to the National Election Polls?

On November 5th, over 100 million voters will head to the polls and cast their votes for many crucial offices including the President of the United States. The race for president is between two main candidates, current Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. How is the race currently shaping up according to the polls and how does that compare to what your peers think?

Currently, the polls are neck and neck for president with Kamala Harris holding approximately a 2-point advantage over Donald Trump in the national popular vote. While a 2-point advantage for Harris is strong, it is considerably worse than how Hillary Clinton was polling against Trump in 2016 and how Joe Biden was polling in 2020. On October 31st, 2020 Biden had a 9.1-point lead while Clinton had a 4.6-point lead. It is important to note in every election Trump has run in, he has significantly outperformed the estimates of the national polls. While many people focus on the individual polls, they can be misleading because ultimately it is the swing states that will be the deciding factor in this pivotal election.

For this election, there are seven key swing states and one key swing district (The state of Nebraska is one of only two states to split its electoral vote allocation by district). Per the New York Times, these seven swing states are Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. The one swing district is Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District which contains the city of Omaha. As of October 16th, per the New York Times poll averages, Trump is leading in the swing states of Georgia and Arizona while Harris is leading in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. If the polls were accurate, Kamala Harris would win the election with 292 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump’s 246 electoral votes. Outside of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which has grown to a 6-point polling advantage, every other swing state has its polls within the margin of error. Harris has a lead of < 1% in the states of North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump has a lead of 2% in both Georgia and Arizona. If we account for the polling errors in the previous elections Trump has run in, he could win North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania despite Harris leading in the polls. 

While polls nationally are very close in this election, what are the opinions of your peers at Kenmore West? Through a survey sent to the emails of students from all grade levels, your peers overwhelmingly said they wanted Kamala Harris to be president. The final results were 66.2% of all votes were for Kamala Harris while 33.8% of votes were for Donald Trump. While not in line with the national polls, these results do fall near how New York State voted in the 2020 presidential election. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden received 60.9% of the vote while Trump received 37.7% of the vote. We asked several students who filled out the survey why they voted the way they did. 10th grader Nina Parker said, “I would 100% vote for Kamala Harris because I can see myself in her. She’s a mixed woman in a white male-dominated field and I am impressed with how strong she is and her confidence is amazing.” This sentiment is echoed in multiple responses from our school poll and nationally. Another powerful testimonial regarding Kamala Harris came from Oliver Schultz, an 8th grader, when they said, “If Trump wins, the world will be a danger for me because I'm gay and trans.” This is a powerful sentiment that many people in the gay and trans community feel. While Trump was in office, Trump reversed the ACA's (Affordable Care Act) LGBTQ healthcare protections for individuals. 

While a large majority of the votes were for Harris, many students had powerful reasons they felt Trump should be re-elected president. 8th grader Lorenzo Gallant-Santamaria said, “I think Donald Trump would bring down taxes, double down on immigration laws, and put America first.” This is a sentiment that many Trump supporters feel. These issues that Lorenzo feels are important are key aspects of the Trump campaign. Another 8th grader Kenisha Ghimire feels that Trump would be the best fit for president as “If Trump gets voted it's less likely for the world to fall apart because he is serious and straightforward. If Kamala gets voted the world would fall apart because she isn't really serious about what she does.” This is an idea that many Trump supporters have brought up; however, it is important to note Kamala Harris has more political experience than Donald Trump.

Regardless of who you plan on voting for, it is important to exercise your civic duty as an American citizen. Starting at age 16, you can pre-register to vote, either at the DMV or at the following link: https://www.ny.gov/services/register-vote. As of now, anyone could win the election and it will be exciting to see it all unfold. Who do you think will be president?