AI and Presidential Election Poll

by Stephen Sabludowsky
I've been very impressed with how powerful and accurate Generative Artificial Intelligence is when it comes to analyzing complex poll results and answering questions as if it had crafted the poll itself.

When I fed the latest New York Times/Siena poll results—pitting Donald Trump against Kamala Harris—into my Political Generative AI expert, the responses I received were incredibly insightful, almost as if the AI had designed the poll itself. To put it into terms from a well-known former reality TV star, "It's hired!"

Of course, my expert—whom I've nicknamed "PoliAI"—isn't flawless. Like all AI chatbots, it has its limitations and can make mistakes. You might not agree with its conclusions after reading the interview and analysis. Nevertheless, in my opinion, it went beyond my expectations.

Here's some background: I have been working with AI tools and training them for several years. Since the public launch of ChatGPT, I've been using these tools daily and have worked with almost all of them. Each tool has its unique strengths and weaknesses and can be temperamental. Understanding how to utilize their potential is crucial. With the specialized tools at my disposal, I decided to test PoliAI's expertise.

I focused on the swing state of Pennsylvania, while the poll also covered Michigan and another state. Pennsylvania has the most significant electoral votes at stake. Below is the link to the poll data I provided to PoliAI, followed by our interview. I've summarized and shortened the questions posed to PoliAI. [The linked document is a cross-tabulation from the August 2024 New York Times/Siena poll, specifically for the state of Pennsylvania. It is based on a survey of "likely voters" and was conducted among 693 likely voters in Pennsylvania between August 6 and 9, 2024​.]

SS: Issue: Discuss the demographic data and trends that would benefit Donald Trump

POLI AL:

The New York Times/Siena College poll of Pennsylvania likely voters provides valuable insights into the demographic groups where Donald Trump shows strength or could potentially gain ground. By focusing on these areas, the Trump campaign can develop targeted strategies to enhance support. Here's a detailed analysis based on the poll:

1. Age

• Strength: Trump performs well among older voters. For instance, he has significant support among voters aged 65 and older, with 50% of them backing him.

• Opportunity: Younger voters (18-29 years) show a lower level of support, but there is still a potential to increase his base here, especially among those who are undecided or leaning Republican. Only 44% of this age group support Kamala Harris, with 10% undecided. This group is often more volatile, so targeted messaging around economic opportunities, job creation, and anti-establishment themes could resonate well.

• Strategy: The campaign should focus on addressing issues relevant to younger voters, such as student loan reform, job creation, and social media engagement, which could help sway undecided voters in this age group.

2. Education

• Strength: Trump has strong support among non-college-educated white voters. For instance, 52% of likely voters without a bachelor’s degree support him, compared to 44% who support Harris.

• Opportunity: There is room to grow his support among college-educated voters, particularly those without advanced degrees, who may be more conservative on fiscal issues but hesitant due to his rhetoric or policies. College-educated white voters are a critical swing group where Trump lags behind.

• Strategy: Emphasize economic policies that benefit the middle class, such as tax cuts and job creation, and address concerns about political correctness and "woke" culture, which can appeal to more conservative college-educated voters.

3. Race and Ethnicity

• Strength: Trump has a solid base among white voters, particularly those without a college degree. However, his support among Black voters is very low, with only 10% backing him, compared to 84% for Harris.

• Opportunity: There is some potential to increase his support among Hispanic voters, who show a bit more diversity in their preferences. With 38% of Hispanic voters supporting Harris and 52% supporting Trump, a focused outreach could tip the balance further in his favor.

• Strategy: For Hispanic voters, the campaign should focus on issues such as immigration reform, economic opportunities, and conservative family values, which resonate strongly within many Hispanic communities.

4. Region

• Strength: Trump is strong in more rural and small-town regions, particularly in Central and Western Pennsylvania, where he leads significantly.

• Opportunity: The Philadelphia suburbs are more competitive. While Harris leads in the city itself, the suburbs are a battleground where Trump has some support but can further increase it by targeting suburban concerns like taxes, crime, and education.

• Strategy: In suburban areas, particularly around Philadelphia, the campaign should emphasize law and order, school choice, and opposition to tax increases, which could appeal to moderate and fiscally conservative voters.

5. Party Affiliation and Leaners

• Strength: Trump maintains solid support among Republican voters, with 95% of self-identified Republicans backing him.

• Opportunity: Independent voters and those who lean Republican could be crucial. Currently, 44% of independents support Trump, compared to 37% for Harris, with a notable portion undecided.

• Strategy: To capture more independent voters, the campaign should focus on non-partisan issues such as economic recovery, reducing government overreach, and promoting individual liberties, which are appealing to this group.

Overall Recommendations

1. Target Messaging by Demographics: Craft messages that resonate with the specific concerns of older, rural, and non-college-educated voters, reinforcing Trump's strengths in these areas.

2. Expand Hispanic Outreach: Focus on economic issues, immigration reform, and conservative values to increase support among Hispanic voters, especially in swing regions like Philadelphia suburbs.

3. Engage Younger Voters: Use social media platforms to discuss job creation, student loans, and anti-establishment rhetoric, which could attract undecided younger voters.

4. Address College-Educated Voters: Tailor messages to highlight economic policies that appeal to the educated middle class while avoiding rhetoric that might alienate them.

5. Focus on Suburban Voters: Emphasize law and order, school choice, and tax policies to appeal to suburban voters, particularly in competitive areas like the Philadelphia suburbs.

By leveraging these insights, the Trump campaign can better position itself to maximize support across key demographic groups in Pennsylvania.

SS: Issue: Discuss the demographic data and trends that would benefit Kamala Harris

POLI AL:

Analyzing the New York Times/Siena College poll of Pennsylvania likely voters reveals several key voting trends and patterns that the Harris campaign can capitalize on. By focusing on the demographic groups where Kamala Harris shows strength or could potentially gain ground, the campaign can develop targeted strategies to enhance support. Here’s a detailed analysis:

1. Age

• Strength: Harris has strong support among younger voters, particularly those aged 18-29, where she leads Trump 49% to 47%.

• Opportunity: Although Harris already leads among younger voters, there's still potential to increase turnout and further solidify support in this age group. Additionally, voters aged 30-44, where she has a narrower lead, present an opportunity to increase her margin.

• Strategy: The campaign should prioritize issues important to younger voters, such as climate change, student debt relief, and social justice, while also using social media and grassroots organizing to increase voter turnout in these age groups.

2. Education

• Strength: Harris performs well among college-educated voters. Among voters with a bachelor's degree, she leads with 59%, compared to 36% for Trump.

• Opportunity: There is also room to increase her support among those with graduate or professional degrees, where she already holds a lead but could further solidify her position by addressing concerns specific to this group, such as healthcare, economic inequality, and support for higher education.

• Strategy: The Harris campaign should emphasize policies that appeal to educated voters, including expanding healthcare access, addressing income inequality, and supporting education funding. Tailoring messages to highlight how her administration would protect and enhance educational and economic opportunities could resonate well with this demographic.

3. Race and Ethnicity

• Strength: Harris has overwhelming support among Black voters, with 84% backing her compared to 10% for Trump. She also leads among Hispanic voters with 43% of the vote, though this margin is narrower.

• Opportunity: The Hispanic and Asian American vote presents an opportunity for growth. While Harris leads among Hispanic voters, the margin could be increased by addressing issues like immigration reform, economic opportunities, and anti-discrimination policies.

• Strategy: The campaign should strengthen outreach efforts to Hispanic and Asian American communities by focusing on issues such as immigration reform, anti-racism initiatives, and economic policies that directly benefit minority communities. Engaging local leaders and influencers within these communities can help bolster support.

4. Region

• Strength: Harris has strong support in urban areas, particularly in Philadelphia and its suburbs. In Philadelphia, she leads Trump by a significant margin, 76% to 18%.

• Opportunity: Suburban regions, especially around Philadelphia, where Harris leads but the race is competitive, present an opportunity to further widen her lead. Additionally, she can work on narrowing the gap in rural and small-town areas by addressing the specific concerns of these voters.

• Strategy: In suburban areas, the campaign should emphasize issues like healthcare, education, and reproductive rights, which resonate with suburban voters. In urban areas, focusing on social justice, economic equality, and infrastructure improvements can help maintain and increase support. For rural and small-town voters, discussing economic revitalization and access to services could help reduce Trump’s advantage.

5. Party Affiliation and Leaners

• Strength: Harris has strong backing from Democrats, with 96% of self-identified Democrats supporting her. She also performs well among independent voters, where she has 43% support compared to 37% for Trump.

• Opportunity: There is potential to increase support among independents and even attract moderate Republicans who are disillusioned with Trump. The undecided voters in this group present a key target for conversion.

• Strategy: The Harris campaign should focus on non-partisan and centrist issues such as healthcare, education, and the economy to appeal to independents and moderate Republicans. Highlighting her experience and portraying her as a stable and unifying leader can help attract these voters.

Overall Recommendations

1. Increase Young Voter Turnout: Leverage social media, youth-oriented messaging, and grassroots campaigns to boost turnout among younger voters, who already favor Harris.

2. Focus on Educated Voters: Emphasize policies that appeal to college-educated and graduate-level voters, including healthcare, education, and economic reform.

3. Strengthen Minority Support: Intensify outreach to Hispanic and Asian American communities with targeted messaging on immigration, anti-discrimination policies, and economic empowerment.

4. Expand in Suburban Areas: Focus on suburban voters by addressing issues like healthcare, education, and reproductive rights, while also shoring up support in urban centers.

5. Attract Independents and Moderates: Appeal to independent voters and moderate Republicans through centrist policies and by positioning Harris as a unifying figure in contrast to Trump.

By leveraging these insights, the Harris campaign can build on its strengths and capitalize on opportunities to increase support across key demographic groups in Pennsylvania.

SS: 

Issue: The reproductive freedom/abortion issue

There is no mention of abortion or reproductive choice. Did the survey not poll that or is that not an important political issue in Pennsylvania?

POLI AL:

The New York Times/Siena College poll does indeed include data on abortion, indicating that it is an important political issue among Pennsylvania likely voters.

Abortion as a Key Issue:

• Overall Importance: Abortion is identified as a significant issue for 15% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, making it a key concern in the state​.

• Demographic Breakdown:

  • Gender: Women place a higher emphasis on abortion compared to men, with 18% of women identifying it as their most important issue versus 9% of men​.

  • Age: Voters aged 30-44 (18%) and 18-29 (18%) consider abortion a more pressing issue compared to older age groups, indicating that younger voters are more motivated by this topic​.

  • Education: College-educated voters, particularly women with a bachelor’s degree, also rank abortion as a top issue, with 20% listing it as most important​.

  • Party Affiliation: Democratic voters are significantly more likely to prioritize abortion than Republicans, with 28% of Democrats identifying it as their top issue compared to only 2% of Republicans​.

Implications for the Harris Campaign:

• Strength Among Women and Younger Voters: Kamala Harris shows strong support among women and younger voters, who are more likely to prioritize abortion. The campaign should continue to emphasize reproductive rights and related healthcare issues, as this could drive voter turnout among these demographics.

• Education and Outreach: The focus on abortion could be further emphasized in educational and outreach campaigns, especially targeting suburban and urban women, as well as college-educated voters, where this issue resonates strongly.

• Contrast with Opponent: Given that abortion is a low priority for Trump supporters (only 2% of Republicans consider it a top issue), Harris can use this to sharpen the contrast between herself and Trump on women's rights and healthcare, which could help consolidate her base and sway undecided voters.

In summary, abortion remains a critical issue in Pennsylvania, particularly among women, younger voters, and Democrats. The Harris campaign should continue to highlight her stance on reproductive rights to mobilize these key groups.

SS:

Issues rank among all the voters starting from most important to least important

POLI AL:

Here are the issues ranked by importance among Pennsylvania likely voters according to the New York Times/Siena College poll:

1. The economy (including jobs and the stock market) - 21%

2. Immigration - 16%

3. Abortion - 15%

4. Inflation and the cost of living - 4%

5. The state of democracy/corruption - 7%

6. Foreign policy - 4%

7. Dislike of opposing candidate - 5%

8. Character/competence of candidate - 5%

9. Healthcare - 2%

10. Equality/inequality - 2%

11. Polarization/division - 3%

12. Gun policies - 1%

13. Climate change - 1%

14. Crime - Less than 1%

15. Russia/the war in Ukraine - Less than 1%

This ranking indicates that economic issues, immigration, and abortion are the most significant concerns among voters, while other issues like healthcare, climate change, and foreign policy are less prioritized​.

SS:

Discrepancy between rank for economy (including jobs and the stock market) at 21% inflation vs. the cost of living ranks at 4%?

POLI AL:

The discrepancy between the economy ranking as the most important issue at 21% and inflation and the cost of living ranking much lower at 4% suggests several potential insights about the priorities and perspectives of Pennsylvania voters:

1. Broad Concerns vs. Specific Issues

• Economy as a Broad Issue: The "economy" as a category includes a wide range of concerns, from jobs and wages to overall economic growth and stability, which are generally viewed as central to voters' financial well-being. Voters might see the economy as a holistic measure of their financial security, encompassing not just immediate price increases but also long-term job prospects, the health of the stock market, and overall economic policy.

• Inflation as a Specific Concern: Inflation, while critical, is a more specific concern that directly impacts daily living expenses. The fact that only 4% of voters cite it as their most important issue could indicate that while voters are affected by rising prices, they might prioritize broader economic conditions or believe that other factors within the economy will have a longer-term impact on their financial situation.

2. Perception of Economic Management

• Economic Management over Immediate Concerns: Voters might prioritize the overall management of the economy, believing that successful management will eventually control inflation and improve the cost of living. This reflects a potential confidence or focus on economic leadership rather than immediate economic pressures like inflation.

3. Voter Segmentation

• Different Voter Priorities: This ranking could suggest that certain voter groups (perhaps those more secure in their jobs or investments) are less directly impacted by inflation or are more focused on economic stability and growth. For example, older or wealthier voters may prioritize the stock market and overall economic growth more than inflation, while younger or lower-income voters might be more concerned with day-to-day living costs.

4. Impact on Campaign Strategies

• Campaign Messaging: For candidates, this indicates that while addressing inflation is important, broader economic messaging—such as job creation, economic growth, and financial security—may resonate more with the electorate. Campaigns might focus on presenting a comprehensive economic plan that includes, but does not overly focus on, inflation.

Conclusion

The ranking suggests that Pennsylvania voters are concerned about the economy in a broad sense, likely prioritizing long-term economic stability and growth over immediate issues like inflation. This could be indicative of a voter base that is more concerned with overarching economic management and policies than with the specific, short-term impacts of inflation.

SS:

Based upon candidate, how undecided voters rank the issues

POLI AL:

Based on the New York Times/Siena College poll, here is how the top issues rank for likely voters in Pennsylvania, separated by Trump, Harris, and undecided voters:

Trump Voters

1. The Economy (including jobs and the stock market) - 33%

2. Immigration - 24%

3. Inflation and the Cost of Living - 8%

4. State of Democracy/Corruption - 5%

5. Character/Competence of Candidate - 4%

Harris Voters

1. Abortion - 26%

2. The Economy (including jobs and the stock market) - 14%

3. State of Democracy/Corruption - 13%

4. Healthcare - 9%

5. Equality/Inequality - 8%

Undecided Voters

1. The Economy (including jobs and the stock market) - 20%

2. Immigration - 13%

3. Abortion - 12%

4. State of Democracy/Corruption - 10%

5. Character/Competence of Candidate - 8%

Analysis

• Trump Voters: The strong focus on the economy and immigration aligns with traditional Republican priorities. The campaign could continue to emphasize economic growth and strict immigration policies.

• Harris Voters: Abortion emerges as the most critical issue, reflecting the importance of reproductive rights among her base. The Harris campaign should continue to focus on social issues, particularly those related to healthcare and democracy.

• Undecided Voters: While the economy remains the top concern, there is a more balanced distribution of priorities among undecided voters. Both campaigns could tailor messages to address these voters' diverse concerns, especially on economic stability, immigration, and democratic governance.

This data provides insights into how each group prioritizes different issues, allowing campaigns to target their strategies effectively​ .

SS:

The importance of the Trump voters ranking character/competence of candidate at only 4% and no ranked among Harris voters 

POLI AL:

The absence of "character/competence of candidate" as a significant issue among Harris voters in the poll, despite the heavy focus on Trump's legal troubles and character-related controversies in recent years, could be due to several factors highlighted by the survey:

1. Prioritization of Policy Issues

• Policy Over Personality: Harris voters appear to prioritize policy issues like abortion, healthcare, and economic concerns over personal characteristics of the candidates. This might suggest that these voters are more focused on the tangible impacts of policies rather than the personal traits or legal issues of the candidates. For them, the stakes surrounding issues like reproductive rights, equality, and the economy might outweigh concerns about character.

2. Polarization and Entrenched Views

• Partisan Polarization: The electorate may be highly polarized, with voters entrenched in their views regardless of the candidates' personal controversies. For Harris voters, Trump's character issues are likely already factored into their decision to oppose him, meaning they don't need to emphasize these aspects as critical decision points.

• Focus on Different Narratives: Harris voters might see the legal cases against Trump as a given negative but not the primary lens through which they view the election. Instead, they might be driven by a broader narrative of protecting democratic values and social issues, which they see as threatened by Trump's policies rather than his personal behavior.

3. Issue Fatigue

• Possible Fatigue: There may be a degree of "issue fatigue" regarding Trump's character and legal controversies, particularly among those who have followed these stories closely for years. Voters on both sides might have become desensitized to these issues, or they might believe that these character and competence concerns have already been litigated in the court of public opinion.

4. Different Framing of the Election

• Framing of Election by the Harris Campaign: The Harris campaign may be framing the election as a choice about the future direction of the country, rather than a referendum on Trump’s past behavior. This could be why Harris voters are more focused on policy outcomes and the broader implications of governance rather than Trump's personal issues.

Conclusion

The poll results suggest that Harris voters might be more driven by policy issues and the broader implications of governance, rather than character or competence concerns about Trump, which could be why "character/competence of candidate" does not rank as highly for them. This reflects a possible strategic focus on substantive issues over personal controversies, viewing them as more pressing or impactful for the future of the country.

SS:

Conclusions to draw based upon the ranking of the undecided voters

POLI AL:

Based on the ranking of issues among undecided voters in Pennsylvania, both the Trump and Harris campaigns have opportunities to attract this group, but the approach must be carefully tailored to the issues that matter most to them. Here's a detailed analysis:

Top Issues for Undecided Voters

1. The Economy (including jobs and the stock market) - 20%

2. Immigration - 13%

3. Abortion - 12%

4. State of Democracy/Corruption - 10%

5. Character/Competence of Candidate - 8%

Which Campaign Might Attract Undecided Voters?

1. Economic Focus

• Advantage for Trump: The economy is the top concern for undecided voters, which aligns with Trump's perceived strength in economic management, especially among voters who may have benefited from or supported his economic policies during his presidency. If the Trump campaign emphasizes his past economic achievements, such as low unemployment rates and stock market growth, it could appeal to these voters.

• Advantage for Harris: Harris can also attract undecided voters by focusing on economic issues, particularly by framing her policies as beneficial for working families and the middle class. If she emphasizes economic recovery, job creation, and measures to tackle income inequality, she can position herself as the candidate who will not just sustain but improve the economy for all Americans.

2. Immigration

• Advantage for Trump: Immigration is a strong point for Trump, particularly among voters concerned with border security and illegal immigration. His tough stance and promises to tighten immigration controls may resonate with undecided voters who prioritize this issue.

• Potential for Harris: While immigration is typically a stronger issue for Republicans, Harris could appeal to undecided voters by presenting a balanced approach that emphasizes both security and humane treatment of immigrants. Policies that address legal immigration, border security, and pathways to citizenship could attract moderate undecided voters.

3. Abortion

• Advantage for Harris: Abortion is a significant issue for undecided voters, and Harris has a clear advantage here due to her strong pro-choice stance. As this issue is particularly motivating for those who prioritize women's rights and healthcare, Harris can consolidate support by emphasizing her commitment to protecting reproductive rights, especially in light of recent changes to abortion laws across the country.

• Trump's Challenge: Trump might struggle to attract voters for whom abortion is a top priority, as his position is generally aligned with the anti-abortion stance of the Republican Party. However, if his campaign can shift the focus to other issues where he is stronger, it might minimize the impact of this disadvantage.

4. State of Democracy/Corruption

• Advantage for Harris: Concerns about the state of democracy and corruption are likely to resonate more with voters who are worried about the direction the country has taken under Trump, particularly in light of events like the January 6th Capitol riot. Harris can appeal to these voters by positioning herself as a defender of democratic institutions and norms.

• Trump's Strategy: To mitigate this, Trump would need to pivot the conversation to focus on perceived corruption within the existing government or other issues where he can frame himself as an outsider fighting against a corrupt establishment.

5. Character/Competence of Candidate

• Advantage for Harris: This issue likely reflects ongoing concerns about Trump's legal challenges and behavior. Harris can leverage these concerns by contrasting her competence and steady leadership with Trump's controversies, appealing to undecided voters who prioritize integrity in leadership.

• Trump's Strategy: Trump’s challenge is to downplay these concerns by shifting the narrative to his past achievements and focusing on the idea of delivering results over character judgments. Emphasizing policy successes rather than personal controversies might help sway voters who are on the fence due to these concerns.

Conclusion

Both campaigns have potential pathways to attract undecided voters, but the Harris campaign might have a slight edge due to the importance of abortion, the state of democracy, and concerns about character and competence—issues that align more closely with her platform. However, Trump could still appeal to these voters by focusing heavily on the economy and immigration, where he traditionally has stronger support.

The key for both campaigns will be to carefully address these top concerns in a way that resonates with undecided voters' values and priorities. Harris needs to continue emphasizing social issues, democratic integrity, and steady leadership, while Trump should focus on economic achievements and strong immigration policies.

SS:

Percentage of the undecided voters compared to all likely voters

POLI AL:

In the New York Times/Siena College poll, 4% of likely voters in Pennsylvania are undecided​.

SS:

Ranked ten top campaign strategies Trump campaign should employ to attract the 4% of total likely voters

POLI AL:

Given the small percentage of undecided voters (4%) and the assumption that the Trump campaign can maintain its base, the primary focus should be on strategies to attract these undecided voters. Below are the top 10 strategies, ranked from most important to least important, that the Trump campaign should employ based on the demographic breakdowns, issues, education, and other factors identified earlier:

1. Emphasize Economic Strength and Job Creation

• Why: The economy is the top issue for undecided voters (20%). Trump's previous economic performance, particularly low unemployment rates and strong job growth, can be leveraged to attract voters who prioritize economic stability and growth.

• Strategy: Highlight policies that led to economic success during his administration and contrast them with current economic challenges. Focus on job creation, tax cuts, and deregulation that benefit both small businesses and the middle class.

2. Tough Stance on Immigration

• Why: Immigration ranks as the second most important issue for undecided voters (13%). Trump's strong position on border security and immigration resonates with voters concerned about this issue.

• Strategy: Reinforce the message of strong borders, national security, and combating illegal immigration. Use specific examples of past actions and future plans to protect American jobs and ensure national security through strict immigration policies.

3. Focus on Crime and Law and Order

• Why: Although not a top-ranked issue overall, crime is often a significant concern in suburban and rural areas, which are key battlegrounds.

• Strategy: Emphasize law and order, highlighting the need for strong policing and the dangers of rising crime rates under Democratic leadership. Target messaging in suburban areas where concerns about crime and safety might sway undecided voters.

4. Appeal to Working-Class Voters Without a College Degree

• Why: Trump has strong support among non-college-educated white voters, a critical demographic that often feels overlooked by establishment politics.

• Strategy: Continue to address issues such as manufacturing jobs, trade deals, and economic policies that benefit blue-collar workers. Stress opposition to policies perceived as favoring elites or global interests at the expense of American workers.

5. Present as a Defender of Traditional American Values

• Why: Undecided voters may be swayed by appeals to conservative values, particularly in areas where social issues resonate deeply.

• Strategy: Frame Trump as the protector of American values, including freedom of speech, religious liberty, and the Second Amendment. Emphasize opposition to "woke" culture and highlight how these values are under threat from the left.

6. Targeted Messaging to Suburban Women

• Why: Harris has strong support among women, but suburban women, especially those concerned about safety and education, can be pivotal.

• Strategy: Focus on issues like school choice, parental rights in education, and opposition to policies that suburban women might view as extreme. Position Trump as a leader who will protect their families' interests and ensure their voices are heard in educational and local matters.

7. Address Inflation and the Cost of Living

• Why: While only 4% of undecided voters list this as their top issue, concerns about inflation can influence economic perceptions.

• Strategy: Tie rising inflation and cost of living to current Democratic policies and contrast them with Trump's economic management. Highlight plans to reduce inflation through fiscal discipline, energy independence, and economic growth.

8. Promote Energy Independence

• Why: Energy policy can be a significant economic concern, especially for voters in rural areas and those tied to industries like oil and gas.

• Strategy: Emphasize Trump’s commitment to energy independence, job creation in energy sectors, and opposition to regulations that harm energy producers. Position energy independence as crucial for economic growth and national security.

9. Character Framing: Strength and Competence

• Why: Although only 8% of undecided voters rank character and competence as their top issue, this group might be influenced by Trump's past achievements despite his controversial style.

• Strategy: Frame Trump’s leadership as strong and effective, focusing on his ability to get things done. Downplay personal controversies by emphasizing results and contrasting them with perceived Democratic failures or weaknesses.

10. Engage with Independent and Moderate Voters

• Why: Independents are crucial swing voters who may lean towards Trump if they perceive him as a practical leader.

• Strategy: Use moderate, pragmatic messaging to appeal to independents. Highlight policies that transcend partisan divides, such as economic growth, strong defense, and pragmatic governance. Position Trump as a disruptor of the status quo who delivers real results.

Conclusion

These strategies are designed to maximize Trump's appeal to undecided voters by focusing on their top concerns while reinforcing his strengths in areas like the economy, immigration, and traditional values. By tailoring messaging to specific demographics and issues, the Trump campaign can effectively target the small but crucial group of undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

SS:

Ranked ten top campaign strategies Trump campaign should employ to attract the 4% of total likely voters

POLI AL:

If the Harris campaign's primary focus is on acquiring the small percentage of undecided likely voters while maintaining the current base, the following top 10 strategies should be employed. These strategies are ranked from most important to least important, based on the demographic breakdowns, key issues, and other factors identified earlier:

1. Emphasize Abortion and Reproductive Rights

• Why: Abortion is the most important issue for 12% of undecided voters and is a major motivator for Harris’s base. Given recent changes in abortion laws, this issue is particularly resonant.

• Strategy: Highlight Harris’s commitment to protecting reproductive rights and contrast it with Trump's stance and the actions of Republican-led states. Use targeted messaging to appeal to women, especially in suburban areas, emphasizing the consequences of losing reproductive freedoms.

2. Address the Economy with a Focus on Working Families

• Why: The economy is the top issue for undecided voters (20%). While traditionally seen as a strength for Republicans, Harris can appeal to these voters by focusing on economic policies that benefit working families.

• Strategy: Emphasize plans to reduce income inequality, support small businesses, and increase wages. Highlight her vision for economic recovery, including investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, to appeal to middle-class and working-class voters.

3. Defend Democracy and Integrity in Government

• Why: The state of democracy and corruption ranks as a significant concern for undecided voters (10%). These voters may be worried about the direction of the country and the integrity of democratic institutions.

• Strategy: Position Harris as a champion of democratic values, emphasizing her commitment to restoring integrity, transparency, and the rule of law. Use Trump’s legal issues and the January 6th Capitol riot to underline the risks of electing a candidate perceived as a threat to democratic norms.

4. Appeal to Young Voters and Millennials

• Why: Younger voters (18-29 years old) are more likely to prioritize issues like social justice, climate change, and reproductive rights, where Harris has a clear advantage.

• Strategy: Leverage social media and digital platforms to engage young voters on key issues such as climate action, student debt relief, and social equity. Encourage turnout by framing the election as a pivotal moment for their future, emphasizing the stakes involved in issues that matter most to them.

5. Expand Healthcare Access and Affordability

• Why: Healthcare, while not the top issue overall, is crucial for many voters, particularly in the context of ongoing debates about healthcare reform.

• Strategy: Advocate for expanding access to affordable healthcare, protecting Medicare and Medicaid, and addressing prescription drug costs. Target messaging to lower-income and older voters who might be particularly concerned about healthcare costs and access.

6. Focus on Education and Childcare

• Why: Education is a critical issue for suburban women and younger families, a demographic that Harris can win over.

• Strategy: Emphasize her commitment to improving public education, increasing funding for schools, and expanding access to affordable childcare. Position these policies as essential for economic growth and reducing inequality, appealing to both parents and educators.

7. Highlight Commitment to Climate Action

• Why: While climate change ranks lower overall, it is a key issue for younger voters and those concerned about the long-term future.

• Strategy: Present Harris as a leader on climate action, focusing on policies that create green jobs, reduce carbon emissions, and promote clean energy. Frame climate change as an economic and public health issue, appealing to voters concerned about the environment and sustainability.

8. Emphasize Equality and Social Justice

• Why: Issues of equality and social justice resonate strongly with Harris’s base and can attract undecided voters who prioritize these values.

• Strategy: Focus on her commitment to racial and gender equality, LGBTQ+ rights, and criminal justice reform. Use targeted messaging to reach minority communities and socially conscious voters, emphasizing her role in promoting a fairer and more inclusive society.

9. Engage with Independent and Moderate Voters

• Why: Independents and moderates are crucial in a close election, and many undecided voters fall into this category.

• Strategy: Present Harris as a pragmatic, steady leader who can work across the aisle to achieve results. Highlight her ability to address economic concerns, healthcare, and national security in a way that appeals to voters looking for practical solutions rather than ideological extremes.

10. Strengthen Outreach in Suburban and Rural Areas

• Why: While urban areas are solidly in Harris’s favor, suburban and rural areas are more competitive and contain undecided voters who could be swayed.

• Strategy: Tailor messages that address the specific concerns of suburban and rural voters, such as healthcare access, education, and economic opportunities. Emphasize her policies on infrastructure, job creation, and support for local economies, making a case for how her administration would directly benefit these communities.

Conclusion

To effectively attract the small percentage of undecided voters, the Harris campaign should concentrate on the most resonant issues, particularly reproductive rights, the economy, and the defense of democratic values. By addressing these issues with targeted, demographic-specific messaging, the campaign can expand its appeal while maintaining its solid base, increasing the likelihood of winning over undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

SS:

What is the demographic breakdown of the current undecided voters

POLI AL:

Here is the demographic breakdown of undecided voters in Pennsylvania based on the New York Times/Siena College poll:

1. Age

• 18-29 years: 6% of undecided voters

• 30-44 years: 8%

• 45-64 years: 5%

• 65+ years: 5%

2. Education

• No College Degree: 9% (combined white and non-white)

• College Degree: 4% (combined white and non-white)

3. Party Affiliation/Leaners

• Democrats: 3%

• Republicans: 3%

• Independents: 5%

4. Race/Ethnicity

• White: 5%

• Black: 4%

• Hispanic: 5%

• Other: 5%

5. Region

• Philadelphia Suburbs: 5%

• Rural/Small Towns: 5%

• City Areas: 6%

These figures provide insight into the composition of undecided voters, highlighting that they are spread across various age groups, education levels, and regions, with a notable proportion being independents and people with no college degree​.

SS:

Based upon profile, the candidates’ advantages to attract the prime unlikely voter--age range of 18-44 years (14%), no college degree (9%), independents (5), white, hispanic or others (5%), city areas and suburbs (11%) 

Yes, your assessment is correct. The demographic profile of undecided voters with the most vote potential includes those aged 18-44 years, those without a college degree, independents, white, Hispanic, or other racial groups, and those from city areas and suburbs.

Candidate Edge Based on Current Preferences

1. Age (18-44 years)

   • Current Preferences: Younger voters, particularly those aged 18-29, tend to favor Harris, who leads in this age group. However, voters aged 30-44 are more competitive, with a narrower lead for Harris.

   • Edge: Harris has the edge among younger voters, especially in the 18-29 age group. However, Trump could compete for those aged 30-44, particularly by focusing on economic concerns and appealing to those without college degrees.

2. Education (No College Degree)

   • Current Preferences: Trump has a significant advantage among voters without a college degree, particularly white non-college-educated voters, who form a core part of his base.

   • Edge: Trump holds a clear edge among voters without a college degree, as this group tends to align more with his economic and immigration policies.

3. Party Affiliation (Independents)

   • Current Preferences: Independents are a key swing group. While the poll shows that they are split, with some leaning slightly toward Trump on economic and immigration issues, Harris performs better among those who prioritize social issues and democratic governance.

   • Edge: Harris might have a slight edge due to her appeal on social issues and democracy concerns, but Trump could gain ground by focusing on economic and immigration policies that appeal to this group.

4. Race/Ethnicity (White, Hispanic, Other)

   • Current Preferences:

     • White Voters: Trump performs well among white voters, especially those without a college degree.

     • Hispanic Voters: Harris leads among Hispanic voters, but the margin is not as large, suggesting potential for both candidates to increase support.

     • Other Racial Groups: Harris generally performs better among minority groups, though there is some opportunity for Trump to appeal to more conservative or economically focused minority voters.

   • Edge: Trump likely has the edge among white voters, particularly those without a college degree, while Harris holds the advantage among Hispanic and other minority voters.

5. Region (City Areas and Suburbs)

   • Current Preferences:

     • City Areas: Harris has strong support in urban areas, particularly in Philadelphia.

     • Suburbs: The suburbs are more competitive, with Harris having an edge in some suburban areas, particularly those concerned with social issues and healthcare.

   • Edge: Harris has the edge in city areas and competitive suburbs, particularly among voters concerned with social justice, healthcare, and reproductive rights. Trump could compete in more conservative suburban regions by focusing on economic and law-and-order messaging.

Overall Edge

Based on the current voter preferences, Harris appears to have a slight overall edge with this undecided voter profile, particularly due to her strength among younger voters, minorities, and those in city areas and competitive suburbs. However, Trump could still attract undecided voters without a college degree, particularly in the 30-44 age range, by emphasizing his strengths in economic management and immigration policy.

Both campaigns need to carefully tailor their messaging to these key demographics to maximize their appeal among undecided voters.

SS:

A  200-word elevator pitch for Harris to attract the undecided voters based upon all issues discussed