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Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise
Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise
Research studies project that global temperatures could increase by 1.1°C to 6.4°C by the end of the 21st century depending on greenhouse gas emissions. The study explains that rising temperatures contribute to sea-level rise through thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based glaciers and polar ice sheets. According to IPCC projections, sea levels may rise between 18–59 cm by 2100, while some semi-empirical models suggest the increase could exceed 1 meter under high-emission scenarios. (Note: Projections of sea-level rise are based on atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs), as well as semi-empirical models.)
Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century (modifed from IPCC, 2007b)
Scientific Evidience
Scientific Evidience
Case Study Japan
Case Study Japan
Long-term tide gauge records around Japan (1906–2011) show a clear trend of rising sea levels, especially after 1990. The study found that sea levels around Japan increased at a rate of 4.8 mm per year, which is higher than the global average of 3.2 mm per year. Researchers used long-term coastal observations and climate data to demonstrate how sea levels continue to rise over time, although natural factors such as ocean currents and water temperature can also influence short-term fluctuations.
Sea-Level Change Around Japan (1906-2011)
Inundation areas in 2100 with coastal protection for 1/100 storm surges. (The dark color indicates inundation areas.)
Trend of a selected people in the world and Asia
Real-World Impact
Real-World Impact
The study found that rising sea levels will greatly increase flooding risks and inundation areas around the world. Without coastal protection, global inundation could reach 1.32 million km² by 2100, placing up to 670 million people at risk from coastal flooding and storm surges. Asia and the Pacific region are expected to remain the most vulnerable areas because of their large coastal populations, mega-deltas, and small island nations. However, the study also suggests that improved coastal protection and economic development could significantly reduce the number of people at risk in the future.
Mitigation and Adaption Responses
Mitigation and Adaption Responses
Mitigation
Mitigation
Mitigation is to stabilize the climate system through the reduction of GHG emissions and sequestration of GHGs by forests, etc. As mitigation aims to keep climate change within the level to which human society and the ecosystem can adapt, it can be considered to avoid an “unmanageable situation” induced by a significant climate change. This unmanageable situation includes a large-scale irreversible change including disintegration of the GIS and WAIS.
Adaption
Adaption
The objective of adaptation, in turn, is to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change using a range of measures such as disaster risk reduction and increased resilience of food production and fresh water supplies. Even if mitigation succeeds in achieving the goal of stabilization, climate change will still proceed to a certain extent, resulting in some impacts on sectors and regions. Therefore, adaptation is considered a “measure to prepare for an unavoidable impact”.
The IPCC identified three major coastal adaptation strategies: protection, such as seawalls and breakwaters; accommodation, such as raising buildings in flood-prone areas; and retreat, which involves relocating people and activities away from high-risk coastal zones.
Important Notes
Important Notes
Increase awareness of the urgency of the issue and encourage both individual and collective action to reduce future risks and protect communities.
The sea levels will continue to rise rapidly, potentially by several feet over the coming centuries. This could lead to massive coastal migration and widespread.
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