Case study

Bushfires in Australia

Cause of 2019~2020 Australian Bushfires

The climate of Australia is generally hot and dry. At any time of the year, some parts of Australia are prone to bushfires. The widely varied fire seasons are reflected in the continent's different weather patterns (Brzezinski, 2019). For most of southern Australia, the danger period is summer and autumn. The potential for extreme fire weather varies greatly throughout Australia, both in frequency and severity. When potential extreme fire weather is experienced close to populated areas, a significant loss is possible (Brzezinski, 2019). According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) (2019), climate change is directly affecting the bushfires in Australia, and the fire seasons are becoming increasingly longer and more severe. Australia is already the driest continent on the planet, and one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change in the developed world (Brzezinski, 2019).

Climate change and bushfire risk

in Australia

Climate change is influencing the frequency and severity of dangerous bushfire conditions in Australia and other regions of the world, including by influencing temperature, environmental moisture, weather patterns, and fuel conditions (Bureau of Meteorology, n.d). There have been significant changes observed in recent decades toward more dangerous bushfire weather conditions for various regions of Australia.

In particular, observed changes in southern and eastern Australia include more extreme conditions during summer, as well as an earlier start to the bushfire season with dangerous weather conditions occurring significantly earlier in spring than they used to (Bureau of Meteorology, n.d). These trends toward more dangerous bushfire conditions are at least partly attributable to human-caused climate change, including through increased temperatures. Northern Australia, which sees significant fire activity during the dry season, has experienced increases in monsoonal rainfall that have increased fuel growth in recent decades, as a key factor influencing fire danger in that region (Bureau of Meteorology, n.d).

Figure 1: Trends from 1978 to 2017 in the annual (July to June) sum of the daily Forest Fire Danger Index—an indicator of the severity of fire weather conditions. (BoM, 2019b.)

Figure 2. How Does Climate Change Affect Bushfires? The Facts About Bushfires and Climate Change. (Climate Council.,2019).

Climate change is worsening bushfires in Australia

The burning of coal, oil, and gas is driving up global temperatures, leading to hotter Australian conditions. Since the mid-1990s, southeast Australia has experienced a 15% decline in late autumn and early winter rainfall and a 25% decline in average rainfall in April and May (Climate Council, 2019). Across Australia average temperature has increased leading to more record-breaking hot weather. Extreme fire danger days have increased (Climate Council, 2019).

This year bushfire risk in parts of northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland has been exacerbated by drought, very dry fuels and soils, and heat (Climate Council, 2019). All of these factors have been aggravated by climate change.

Rainfall for January to August 2019 was the lowest on record in the Southern Downs (Queensland) and Northern Tablelands (New South Wales) (Climate Council, 2019). For example, Tenterfield and Stanthorpe were 77% below the long-term average(Climate Council, 2019).
Vegetation has been very dry with parts of New South Wales and Queensland experiencing record low soil moisture(Climate Council, 2019). The low soil moisture is symptomatic of both the recent intense dry conditions, as well as longer-term below average rainfall since 2017 (Climate Council, 2019).
Drought means vegetation is more flammable and therefore more likely to support extreme fire behavior and spot fires(Climate Council, 2019). Heat is a factor too(Climate Council, 2019), both exacerbating dry conditions and enabling sparks to take hold. For instance, virtually the whole of the Murray-Darling Basin has experienced record-breaking heat this year (Climate Council, 2019).
Climate change is lengthening the bushfire season. The northern and southern hemisphere seasons are now overlapping, making it difficult to pool resources such as personnel and firefighting equipment (Climate Council, 2019). The opportunity for hazard reduction burning to limit the threat of bushfires is closing, with all-year-round bushfires.

Figure 3. The before and after pictures which show the tragic impact of bushfires in Australia. Curly Tales. (Shenoy, S.,2020)

Figure 4. Seon, D. (2020). Destroyed buildings in Cobargo, NSW. The risk of damage to the broader economy is high because the fire season still has months to run, Moody’s says. The Guardian. Retrieved May 11, 2022

How much land was burned?

Over 17 million hectares had been burned across NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, Western Australia, and South Australia (Parliament of Australia, 2020).

How many species have become endangered/extinct?

Various modeling suggests that the fires have had a significant impact on many rare or threatened animals, plants, and insects, to the extent that some of the losses are feared to be permanent(Brzezinski, 2019). Preliminary results indicated that '49 listed threatened species have more than 80% of their modeled likely or known distribution within the fire extent' (Brzezinski, 2019). Most of these animals have potentially had at least 30% of their range burnt, and many have had substantially more. The provisional list includes 13 birds, 19 mammals, 20 reptiles, 17 frogs, 5 invertebrates, 22 crayfish and 17 fish species (Brzezinski, 2019).

How many people died?

On 4 February 2020 Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed in a speech to Parliament that 33 people died as a result of the 2019–20 bushfires (Parliament of Australia, 2020).

How many firefighters died?

On 31 January 2020 the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) stated that a total of nine firefighters had died (included in the overall total of 33 deaths).

How many houses were destroyed?

A total of 3,094 houses had been lost across NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, Western Australia, and South Australia (Brzezinski, 2019). On 12 February 2020, the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) reported that 2,439 homes had been destroyed in NSW (Parliament of Australia, 2020).

Figure 5. Kangaroo standing alone in the burned land by Australia bushfire.

(Nikkei Asia. HISCOCK, G. ,2020).

How the Australian government is responding:

1. The Australian Government has committed to creating the National Bushfire Recovery Agency to coordinate a response to rebuild communities nationally(). For example, the agency’s fund is helping the families, farmers, and business owners who got hit by several unprecedented wildfires().

2. Investing in science. The government is helping farmers by using advanced technology and thinking such as adapting to more regular and longer dry periods to prevent the future().

3. Committed to the Paris Agreement. To take practical action to address this global challenge, set the target to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 percent on 2005 levels by 2030().