Research

I study a model of production network formation and use this model to analyze the effect on aggregate output of a firm losing access to an input. I find that, contrary to economic intuition and alternative model results, when a supply line is removed, aggregate output may increase rather than decrease. I solve the model computationally and simulate it to characterize the types of networks that lead to this increase in output. I find that this is more likely when the re-formed production network is relatively interconnected and when the firm that loses access to its input has more alternatives to choose from. This paper identifies circumstances under which it is more likely that aggregate output increases rather than decreases in the face of a supply chain disruption. This can inform the methods used by researchers and help policymakers identify supply chain disruptions that represent opportunities for economic growth.

"The Effect of Missing Financial Network Data on Predicted Financial Outcomes"

Under Review

Little data exists describing the links of the US financial network. Using a computational model of interbank lending, I show that this lack of data can lead to erroneous model predictions. I analyze several types of data inaccuracies and find that missing a single loan in the network can lead to large differences in the predicted number of unpaid loans and total dollars repaid. This missing data could mean implementing policies that are designed to improve macroeconomic stability but that could actually lead to substantial destabilization. These results are robust across multiple network sampling regimes.

"Holding Periods: Measuring the Inverse of Money Velocity from Transaction Records"

With Carolina Mattsson and Frank Takes

Under Review

This paper defines the average holding period of money and proposes a methodology for fully disaggregated measurement. Our measure is shown to be the inverse of the transfer velocity of money under stationary conditions, which is implicitly assumed in conventional aggregate measurement. Our methodology does not require stationarity. We leverage a recent computational technique to extract empirical holding periods from micro-level transaction data as recorded by real-world payment systems. This enables novel empirical analyses of money velocity under non-stationarity conditions. We illustrate several such analyses on Sarafu, a small digital community currency in Kenya, where transaction data is available from 25 January 2020 to 15 June 2021. Our measure implies faster circulation than does the aggregate transfer velocity; we can say that 58% of Sarafu was effectively static. We also disaggregate by geography to study the heterogeneous impact of economic disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic on Sarafu. Finally, we consider an ad-hoc currency management operation that took place in October 2020. Measuring the average holding period of money makes it possible to track money velocity during ongoing monetary interventions and on other important occasions when conditions are not stationary.

"A Guide to the U.S. Academic Economics Job Market for Teaching-Focused Jobs"

With Benjamin Harrell, Melanie Fox, Nakul Kumar, Dan Lee, and Gina Pieters

The academic job market for economists features a substantial hidden curriculum. Most of the work on improving this has focused on research jobs at universities. Teaching-focused jobs differ from research jobs in several important ways. We provide advice for those interested in these teaching-focused jobs. We describe the main types of teaching-focused jobs in economics. Additionally, we provide advice on preparing for and acquiring these jobs. This paper is a resource for Ph.D. students, early career economists, and their mentors. Economists are striving to diversify the profession. We contribute to this by providing information about teaching-focused jobs in economics.

Works in Progress

"University Leadership and Educational Background"

With Emily Cook, Jaime Davila, and Kaya Gendreau (Former St. Olaf College Student)

"College-to-College Peer Networks and College Decisions"

With Henry Fisher (St. Olaf College Student)

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