Greetings!
I trust our spring newsletter finds you well. The Natural Gas Initiative is busier than ever, with new field projects kicking off and a full program of events hosted at Stanford.
Having just hosted a workshop on the Veritas methane measurement and verification initiative co-hosted with GTI Energy, we are now looking forward to the Precourt Energy Showcase on May 1st at Stanford. On June 20th we will hold an Energy Dialogue workshop focused on creating transparency around the various decarbonization pathways.
As more and more renewables are deployed to the grid, the role of natural gas to provide reliability and resiliency is increasingly clear. At NGI we continue to work on projects that accelerate decarbonization by using gas to support the grid and ensuring that the gas we use today is as clean and sustainable as possible.
In this newsletter we share the recent progress of our NGI researchers as well as our role in establishing a narrative around the decarbonization potential of natural gas in the US and globally. Of particular note this quarter, are the seminal publications on methane leakage and detection that will be critical in setting reasonable targets for individual basins as well as providing insights to operators on the performance of various technologies.
Thanks to everyone for your continued support of our program. A summary of recent activities and publications can be found below.
Best,
Naomi
Naomi Boness
Managing Director, Stanford Natural Gas Initiative
Veritas: Methane Measurement and Verification Initiative
A collaboration between Stanford Natural Gas Initiative and GTI Energy
March 28, 2024 - The Stanford Natural Gas Initiative and GTI Energy co-hosted Veritas: Methane Measurement and Verification Protocols bringing together over 120 people from industry, academia, government and NGOs. Mitigating methane emissions is critical to meet our climate goals and one of the lowest cost ways to abate carbon.
We would to thank all of the outstanding speakers, moderators, panelists and attendees for their time and participation, and for contributing to the success of the event!
NGI Research
Evan Sherwin, a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, conducted the analysis as a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University.
Published: March 13, 2024 | Nature
Author: Sherwin, E.D., Rutherford, J.S., Zhang, Z. et al. US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements. Nature 627, 328–334 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07117-5
Abstract: As airborne methane surveys of oil and gas systems continue to discover large emissions that are missing from official estimates1,2,3,4, the true scope of methane emissions from energy production has yet to be quantified. We integrate approximately one million aerial site measurements into regional emissions inventories for six regions in the USA, comprising 52% of onshore oil and 29% of gas production over 15 aerial campaigns. We construct complete emissions distributions for each, employing empirically grounded simulations to estimate small emissions. Total estimated emissions range from 0.75% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65%, 0.84%) of covered natural gas production in a high-productivity, gas-rich region to 9.63% (95% CI 9.04%, 10.39%) in a rapidly expanding, oil-focused region. The six-region weighted average is 2.95% (95% CI 2.79%, 3.14%), or roughly three times the national government inventory estimate5. Only 0.05–1.66% of well sites contribute the majority (50–79%) of well site emissions in 11 out of 15 surveys. Ancillary midstream facilities, including pipelines, contribute 18–57% of estimated regional emissions, similarly concentrated in a small number of point sources. Together, the emissions quantified here represent an annual loss of roughly US$1 billion in commercial gas value and a US$9.3 billion annual social cost6. Repeated, comprehensive, regional remote-sensing surveys offer a path to detect these low-frequency, high-consequence emissions for rapid mitigation, incorporation into official emissions inventories and a clear-eyed assessment of the most effective emission-finding technologies for a given region.
Published: January 31, 2024 | Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT)
Author: Sherwin, E. D., El Abbadi, S. H., Burdeau, P. M., Zhang, Z., Chen, Z., Rutherford, J. S., Chen, Y., and Brandt, A. R.: Single-blind test of nine methane-sensing satellite systems from three continents, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 765–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-765-2024, 2024
Abstract: Satellite-based remote sensing enables detection and mitigation of large point sources of climate-warming methane. These satellites will have the greatest impact if stakeholders have a clear-eyed assessment of their capabilities. We performed a single-blind test of nine methane-sensing satellites from three continents and five countries, including both commercial and government satellites. Over 2 months, we conducted 82 controlled methane releases during satellite overpasses. Six teams analyzed the resulting data, producing 134 estimates of methane emissions. Of these, 80 (58 %) were correctly identified, with 46 true positive detections (34 %) and 34 true negative non-detections (25 %). There were 41 false negatives, in which teams missed a true emission, and 0 false positives, in which teams incorrectly claimed methane was present. All eight satellites that were given a nonzero emission detected methane at least once, including the first single-blind evaluation of the EnMAP, Gaofen 5, and Ziyuan 1 systems. In percent terms, quantification error across all satellites and teams is similar to aircraft-based methane remote sensing systems, with 55 % of mean estimates falling within ±50 % of the metered value. Although teams correctly detected emissions as low as 0.03 metric tons of methane per hour, it is unclear whether detection performance in this test is representative of real-world field performance. Full retrieval fields submitted by all teams suggest that in some cases it may be difficult to distinguish true emissions from background artifacts without a known source location. Cloud interference is significant and appears to vary across teams and satellites. This work confirms the basic efficacy of the tested satellite systems in detecting and quantifying methane, providing additional insight into detection limits and informing experimental design for future satellite-focused controlled methane release testing campaigns.
All PESD News | February 7, 2024
Better battery strategy in emerging markets (or, “why you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one BESS-kit”)
Why it matters: As emerging energy markets add large quantities of wind and solar, grid-level battery energy storage systems are touted by some donors and development agencies as a zero-carbon “leapfrog” over fossil fuels for energy supply when wind and sun are absent. But unsupported optimism about the near-term potential of batteries to back up renewables on their own may diminish the perceived urgency of investing in other dispatchable alternatives
The economic value of battery energy storage
Battery energy storage system (BESS) technology provides two broad categories of services to electricity grids:
Ancillary services to maintain power quality and reliability (batteries as “shock absorbers”). Charged batteries can serve as reserves in the event power generators go offline due to technical issues or maintenance. Batteries are especially well-suited to provide frequency regulation by compensating for small differences in generation and load (demand) on a near-instantaneous basis, helping to ensure that the grid remains stable and customers receive high-quality power that is safe for their electrical devices.
Time shifting energy to meet demand at a lower cost (batteries as “energy banks”). When wind and solar output are not matched to patterns of demand, energy storage technologies like batteries can “time shift” this energy by storing it when net load (demand minus intermittent renewable output) is low and discharging when net load is high. This obviates curtailment of wind and solar when these renewables are abundant and provides needed energy when they are not. The overall effect is to reduce the cost of integrating wind and solar into the grid by deferring investments in additional generation, transmission, and distribution. (Batteries are not currently cost-effective for the kind of long-term energy shifting that would be required to compensate for seasonal variation in renewable output over weeks or months.)
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control | Volume 133, March 2024, 104095
Authors: Esuru R. Okoroafor, Justin Bracci, Naomi L. Boness, Sarah D. Saltzer, Gireesh Shrimali, Eleanor M. Hennessy, Tae Wook Kim, D'Arcy Biddle Seamon, Sally M. Benson, Mark D. Zoback, Anthony R. Kovscek, A Methodology for Fueling Mobility Markets with Hydrogen from Natural Gas plus Carbon Capture and Sequestration, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Volume 133, 2024, 104095, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104095 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583624000380)
Abstract: Fuel cell electric vehicles utilizing hydrogen are one option for reducing emissions in the transportation sector. Future hydrogen demand for the mobility markets will be partially dependent on the evolution of state and national policies and incentives. Hydrogen from natural gas plus carbon capture and sequestration (SMR-CCS) is one pathway for manufacturing hydrogen without significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This paper describes a methodology for assessing hydrogen market demand, CO2 storage options, community impacts (air quality and community vulnerability/environmental justice concerns), land ownership and technoeconomics for the mobility market in northern California, but has application globally. Our analysis indicates that a single facility with 250 t/day hydrogen generation capacity would provide enough hydrogen to supply the Bay Area and Sacramento regions of California in a mid-case demand scenario. With existing federal and state incentives, we estimate the levelized cost of hydrogen from natural gas plus carbon capture and sequestration to be $0.13 per kg (highly dependent on California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit assumed to be $100/ton CO2), which is competitive with grey hydrogen that averages $0.65 /kg in California. In addition, based on subsurface criteria, community impact analysis, and land ownership status, 7 sites in northern California appear to be feasible prospects for a collocated SMR-CCS new build facility. The primary barrier to CCS projects in California continues to be the regulatory framework. Further work with key stakeholders, including state and federal legislators, is needed to enhance the commercial attributes of CCS projects and public acceptance of such projects.
Perspective | Published March 15, 2024 | Nature Sustainability
Authors: Vengerova, G., Lipsky, I., Hutchinson, G.A. et al. Space bioprocess engineering as a potential catalyst for sustainability. Nat Sustain 7, 238–246 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01305-x
Abstract: Investment in spacefaring enterprises must offer transformative solutions to Earth-based challenges. Providing for the future health of our home planet is possibly the greatest return on investment. Therefore, ensuring that the large costs of astronautics also yield benefits on Earth is critical. The goal of space bioprocess engineering is the design, realization and management of biologically driven technologies for supporting off-world human exploration. Here, we outline several technologies with high dual-use potential, argue that continued investment in such technologies is justified, and offer insight into specific research and development strategies that will increase sociological, political and technological benefits for sustainable development on Earth.
Published: January 2, 2024 | ScienceDirect
Authors: Jimmy Rojas, Shang Zhai, Eddie Sun, Vasudev Haribal, Sebastian Marin-Quiros, Amitava Sarkar, Raghubir Gupta, Matteo Cargnello, Will Chueh, Arun Majumdar,Technoeconomics and carbon footprint of hydrogen production, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy Volume 49, Part D, 2024, Pages 59-74, ISSN 0360-3199, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.06.292.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319923032718)
Abstract: Decarbonization of the global economy needs not only carbon-free electricity but also a fuel that is free of greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen is a prime candidate, with colors such as gray, blue and green production methods receiving attention. Generally missing from this discourse, however, is a quantitative comparison on the cost, scale, carbon footprint and infrastructure requirements for each of these technologies. Here we present a detailed technoeconomic comparison of five hydrogen production technologies: thermochemical water splitting, methane pyrolysis, water electrolysis, steam methane reforming, and chemical looping hydrogen production. Steam or autothermal methane reforming with carbon capture (SMR + CC) at large scale sets the benchmark for costs, but at small scales, electrochemical technologies appear more suitable. Potentially competitive with and sometimes more affordable than SMR + CC are chemical looping hydrogen production and methane pyrolysis. The impacts of the CO2 footprint of the electricity grid and a price on CO2 are also quantitatively evaluated. A qualitative consideration of the ability to leverage existing infrastructure is also offered with a view towards rapid scalability. Finally, the key research needs are identified for each technology.
Published: March 2024 | ScienceDirect
Authors: Chih-Jung Chen, Jinwon Oh, An-Chih Yang, Chengshuang Zhou, Gennaro Liccardo, Shradha Sapru, Matteo Cargnello, Understanding the effects of manganese and zinc promoters on ferrite catalysts for CO2 hydrogenation to hydrocarbons through colloidal nanocrystals, Surface Science, Volume 741, 2024, 122424, ISSN 0039-6028, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.susc.2023.122424.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0039602823001772)
Abstract: CO2 hydrogenation is a crucial reaction in the pursuit of sustainable fuels and chemicals. Iron-based catalysts, known for their activity, have garnered attention due to their potential, but sintering and still limited performance have encouraged researchers to explore additives and promoters in ferrite phases. Nonetheless, a systematic approach is required to comprehensively understand the roles of the promoters. This study analyzed the catalytic performance of colloidal ferrite nanocrystals added with manganese and zinc additives for CO2 hydrogenation. The precise control afforded by colloidal synthesis enabled the fine-tuning of catalyst properties. The findings revealed that both manganese and zinc additives effectively counteracted sintering effects, leading to decreased particle sizes after the reaction. The contribution of manganese additives to promoting CO2 hydrogenation performance was however limited, resulting in lower CO2 conversion and reduced selectivity towards C2+ hydrocarbons compared to the bare ferrite catalyst. Notably, the introduction of zinc instead yielded a dual benefit of improved catalytic activity and selectivity. This enhancement was attributed to enhanced reducibility that facilitated the formation of carbide-like phases, considered the active species.
Published: January 12, 2024 | Springer Link
Authors: Kovscek, A.R., Nordbotten, J.M. & Fernø, M.A. Scaling Up FluidFlower Results for Carbon Dioxide Storage in Geological Media. Transp Porous Med 151, 975–1002 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11242-023-02046-9
Abstract: The partial differential equations describing immiscible, but soluble, carbon dioxide (CO2) displacement of brine in saline storage formations are developed including mass transfer across the CO2–brine interface. Scaling relationships for characteristic time among laboratory and representative storage formation conditions are found upon assumption that free-phase CO2 transport during injection is dominated by pressure-driven flow. The implication is that an hour in the FluidFlower (room-scale visual model) scales to hundreds of years of elapsed time in the storage formation. The scaling criteria permit extrapolation of the effects of changes in parameters and operating conditions. Interphase mass transfer allows CO2 to saturate the brine phase and the finite time of such mass transfer results in substantial time to approach equilibrium. Significant mixing of CO2 dissolved into formation brine with original brine is found experimentally and is also predicted. The magnitude of onset time for buoyancy-driven fingers that enhance mixing of CO2 is typically only a fraction of the duration of CO2 injection and in general agreement with theoretical analysis in the literature. Predictions for onset time of convective mixing at representative storage formation conditions, likewise, teach that the onset time for fingering is significantly less than the duration of CO2 injection in some cases. The implications of this observation include that mixing of CO2 with brine and the subsequent settling due to gravity are relatively rapid and coincide with the period of active CO2 injection.
NGI in the News
Oil and gas operations across the United States are emitting more than 6 million tons per year of methane, the main component of natural gas and the most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, according to Stanford-led research published March 13 in Nature.
These emissions, which result from both intentional vents and unintentional leaks, amount to $1 billion in lost commercial value for energy producers. The annual cost rises to $10 billion when researchers account for harm to the economy and human well-being caused by adding this amount of heat-trapping methane to Earth’s atmosphere.
The new emission and cost estimates are roughly three times the level predicted by the U.S. government. The results are based on approximately 1 million aerial measurements of U.S. wells, pipelines, storage, and transmission facilities in six of the nation’s most productive regions, including the Permian and Forth Worth in Texas and New Mexico; California’s San Joaquin basin; Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg basin; Pennsylvania’s section of the Appalachian basin; and Utah’s Uinta basin. In all, the infrastructure surveyed in this study accounts for 52% of U.S. onshore oil production and 29% of gas production.
MORE PRESS RELEASES
February 22, 2024 - Stanford University’s Natural Gas Initiative (NGI) and Adamantine Energy have collaborated to create the Real Decarbonization Consortium for leaders from oil and gas.
Stanford Natural Gas Initiative Managing Director, Dr. Naomi Boness attended the February Real Decarbonization Consortium meeting in Denver, Colorado, where she collaborated with oil and gas industry leaders regarding facing the real-world challenges of executing on company decarbonization strategies.
The Real Decarbonization Consortium builds upon the August 2023 Real Decarbonization Workshop convening and subsequent participant feedback. The intimate, invitation-only coalition will gather for year-round programming and engagement to give forward-thinking leaders the opportunity to plan and problem-solve with their peers.
The next consortium meeting is scheduled for September 2024, on the Stanford University campus.
March 8, 2024 - Dr. Naomi Boness, Managing Director, Stanford's Natural Gas Initiative and Co-Managing Director, Hydrogen Initiative moderated a panel discussion at the 4th Annual International Women's Day Celebration. The panel session titled, "A Perspective from the C Suite" included Emily Sanford Fisher, Executive Vice President, Clean Energy & General Counsel at Edison Electric Institute, Mary Chan, Chief Operating Officer, Nikola Motor Co and Beth Deane, Chief Legal Officer, Electric Hydrogen.
The event brought together first-class speakers, unique insights in the latest in hydrogen as well as a welcoming community of allies and champions for diversity.
Event Highlights:
Executive-level speakers sharing their insights.
Update and discussions of Hydrogen Hubs and other industry updates.
Career Growth in Hydrogen session.
Opportunity for structured and informal networking.
March 18, 2024 - Dr. Naomi Boness, Co-Managing Director, Stanford Hydrogen Initiative participated in a panel discussion with Didier Holleaux (Engie) and Sidd Manjeshwar (Air Products) at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.
The challenge of creating low-carbon hydrogen and making it affordable calls for openness to all so-called hydrogen "colors" and continued supply chain investments, speakers said at a March 18 panel.
There is no such thing as a totally clean pathway towards clean hydrogen production, not even with "green" hydrogen production, said Stanford University Hydrogen Initiative Co-Managing Director Naomi Boness at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.
CERAWeek 2024 explored strategies for a multidimensional, multispeed and multifuel energy transition. The drive for energy transition is reshaping the competitive landscape for companies and countries – creating new opportunities and risks across the energy value chain. The imperative to reduce emissions has grown in urgency. Yet expectations of a simple linear global transition have been shaken as climate goals compete with concerns over how to deliver economic growth while ensuring energy security, energy access, and affordability. The multidimensional energy transition reflects different realities and timelines by region, technology, industry strategies, the variety of social and political approaches and divergent national priorities in an increasingly multipolar world.
April 25-26, 2024 - Stanford's Natural Gas Initiative hosted the Energy Leadership Institute workshop on the Stanford campus. The EnGen leadership development program is a one-year, curriculum-based executive leadership development program focused on leadership skills and professional development used to bridge the divide between energy sectors, collaborate within the entire energy community, conduct a productive and inclusive energy dialogue, and contribute informed and innovative solutions to the complex challenges of a continuously evolving energy industry.
Save the Dates
Methane Emissions Technology Alliance Seminars
Real Decarbonization Consortium
February 22, 2024 - Denver, CO
September 12-13, 2024 - Stanford University
GTI Energy - Veritas Initiative
March 28, 2024
EnGen - Energy Leadership Workshop
April 25-26, 2024
Energy Dialogues Leaders Series
June 20, 2024
Stanford Energy Showcase
May 1, 2024
NGI Board Meeting
October 7, 2024
NGI Annual Affiliates Meeting
October 8-9, 2024
Global Energy Forum
November 2024
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