The long-term effects of ambient air pollution exposure, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5), have been associated with an increased risk of death from multiple chronic diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer. Air pollution has become a serious public health problem in Mexico City. In response, the local government has implemented strategies to achieve a 30% reduction in total air pollution emissions by 2030.
Provide decision-makers with an evaluation of the long-term health, environmental, and economic impacts of existing strategies to mitigate air pollution, enabling them to explore various future policies to achieve goals beyond 2030.
Epidemics in large populations and policies to control them are often analyzed using single dynamic transmission models. However, in the presence of regional heterogeneity, a single model may not accurately reflect the region-specific dynamics nor the heterogeneity of effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) – thus producing biased predictions.
To compare estimates of the effects of NPIs on COVID-19 in Mexico from a national-level epidemic model and a state-level aggregate model using our previously developed SC-COSMO model (Alarid-Escudero et al., 2021) and evaluate of the extent of such biases using the timely example of COVID-19 in Mexico.