Research
Research
Abstract: Why was the decline of religion much more pronounced in Europe than in the US after World War II? The Canadian case holds the key to understanding divergent secularization patterns since it is a hybrid case: most of the country followed a pattern of sustained religiosity similar to the US, while Quebec saw a rapid decline of religion similar to many European countries, such as the Netherlands, Sweden and Ireland.
As part of what historians call the “Quiet Revolution,” Quebec experienced one of the world’s fastest episodes of secularization starting in the late 1950s. It went from being the most religious province in Canada to the least religious in less than two decades, a pattern that I document by combining multiple historical polls.
I propose a new theory in which such rapid religious reversals are caused by a high degree of interdependence between public institutions and cultural religiosity. This interdependence generates a political multiplier effect in which more religious public institutions increase the population’s religiosity, leading them to support policies that reinforce the religiosity of institutions. However, a shock can reverse this multiplier effect and generate a rapid shift toward a strongly secular society.
I argue that the institutions of the Catholic Church and the provincial state became highly intertwined, which created a greater interdependence between religiosity and public institutions in Quebec than in other parts of Canada. Low federal transfers and insufficient recruitment weakened the religious welfare state in the 1950s, which opened the way for a shift in the 1960s to an equilibrium with a strongly secular and generous welfare state along with low cultural religiosity. [link]
With Arthur Silve and Marion Mercier.
Abstract: We show that states strategically boost their reputation for resolve by backing rebellions in foreign countries. Our study provides broader insights into reputation-building in international relations, with a focus on co-ethnic links between countries as an objective source of variation in a state’s motivation to build its reputation. The theoretical mechanism yields two interconnected predictions: (a) a state is more likely to endorse the uprising of a foreign group when facing a larger audience, resulting in (b) greater political inclusion for the group. We build a comprehensive panel dataset of co-ethnic rebellion sponsorship and find empirical support for both predictions. This corroborates the role of reputation-building motivations and helps rule out alternative mechanisms, with significant policy implications for handling international conflicts and interventions. [link]
Revise and Resubmit (R&R) at the Journal of the European Economic Association.
Abstract: I develop a general continuous-time dynamic model to examine how economic and identity-based motivations shape the long-run distribution of cultural traits in a population. In contrast with other models in the literature, mine yields non-empty basins of attraction for two monomorphic (single-trait) and one polymorphic (multi-trait) equilibrium under simple and credible conditions. I argue that this structure mirrors real-world cultural dynamics and provides new insights into these processes. In particular, my analysis of the comparative statics on the basin of attraction for the polymorphic equilibrium reveals that it expands with 1) increased cultural attachment and 2) reduced economic incentives to join the majority group, for example, through a smaller cultural distance or more interconnected ethnic economic networks. [Paper coming soon. Current draft available upon request.]
Morin, J. F., Tremblay-Auger, B., & Peacock, C. (2022). Design Trade-Offs Under Power Asymmetry: COPs and Flexibility Clauses. Global Environmental Politics, 22(1), 19-43. [link]
Tremblay-Auger, B. (2021). Financer la discorde : le soutien international aux groupes rebelles comme contre-force à la résolution des conflits civils (Financiers of Discord: International Support to Rebel Organizations in Civil Wars as a Counterforce to Institutional Solutions). Études internationales, 52(3), 241-271. [link]
Mercier, M., Silve, A., Tremblay-Auger, B. (2023) Guerres indirectes : pourquoi les États soutiennent-ils des rébellions à l’étranger ? (Indirect Wars: Why States Finance Foreign Rebellions?). Revue d’économie du développement. [link]
Mercier, M., Silve, A., Tremblay-Auger, B. (2023). Building Reputation: Proxy Wars and Transnational Identities. IZA Discussion Paper. [link]