Policy work
'Uncertain times', with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, May 2025. Selected coverage: Bloomberg, bne IntelliNews, CNBC, Les Echos, EurActiv, EuroNews, Financial Times, France24, Reuters, Le Monde, The Wall Street Journal
'Weaker momentum amid fragmenting trade and investment', with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, February 2025. Selected coverage: Bloomberg, bne Intellinews, Die Presse, Euronews, Kursiv, Reuters, The Guardian, Wall Street Journal
'An introduction to industrial policies', with Maxim Chupilkin, Victoria Marino, Alexander Plekhanov and Xiaoyu Yan, Transition Report, 2024-25. See also: VoxEU. Selected coverage: Austrian Press Agency, bne Intellinews, Euractiv, Het Financieele Dagblad, Kursiv, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, ifo Institut
'Household resilience in a turbulent world', Life in Transition Survey IV Report, October 2024. See also: VoxEU. Selected media coverage: Frankfurter Allgemeine, ifo Institut. Presentation at KIMEP University, Almaty, March 2025. Short conversation about chapter 4, Birkbeck University of London, February 2024.
‘Along the adjustment path’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, September 2024. Selected coverage: Bloomberg, bne Intellinews, CNBC, DW News, Euronews, France 24, Reuters, The Guardian, Wall Street Journal
‘Taming inflation’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, May 2024. Selected coverage: Bloomberg, bne Intellinews, Euronews, Euronews Live, Financial Times, Le Monde, Reuters, The Banker, The Guardian, The Economic Times, Wall Street Journal
‘Houses, homes and heating’, with Maxim Chupilkin and Ireko Zamilov, Transition Report, 2023-24. Selected media coverage: bne IntelliNews, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
‘Shifting gears’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, September 2023. Selected media coverage: Bloomberg, Financial Times, Frankfurter Allgemeine, Handelsblatt, Reuters, Le Monde, The Telegraph.
‘Getting by: High inflation weighs on purchasing power of households’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, May 2023. Selected media coverage: AFP, Bloomberg, CNBC, Euronews, Reuters, The Economist
‘Not out of the woods yet’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, February 2023 Update. Selected media coverage: Bloomberg, CNBC, DW, Financial Times, New York Times, Politico, Reuters, The Times, Wall Street Journal
‘The economics of war and peace’, with Maxim Chupilkin, Transition Report, 2022-23.See also: VoxEU, November 2022. Selected media coverage: Het Financieele Dagblad
‘A cold winter ahead? Confronting the energy crunch’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, September 2022. Selected media coverage: Euronews, Financial Times, Handelsblatt, Le Monde, Reuters
‘Trade and Innovation in the Middle East and North Africa’, with Matteo Ficarra, Meryem Gokten, Peter Harasztosi, Roberta Lesma, Rozalia Pal and Christoph Weiss, Unlocking Sustainable Private Sector Growth in the Middle East and North Africa, 2022; EBRD Working Paper, No. 267, 2022; EIB MENA Enterprise Survey Report Working Paper, Vol. 6, 2022.
‘Enterprises in Eastern Europe and Central Asia during the pandemic’, with Laura Valderrama, Grace Li, Jorge Salas, Péter Harasztosi and Simon Savšek, Business resilience in the pandemic and beyond: Adaptation, innovation, financing and climate action from Eastern Europe to Central Asia, 2022.
‘The return of runaway prices: Dealing with expensive food and energy’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, May 2022. Selected media coverage: Bloomberg, Reuters
‘In the shadow of the war: The economic fallout from the war on Ukraine’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Update, March 2022. Selected media coverage: Bloomberg, Financial Times, Handelsblatt, The New York Times
‘Digital divides’, with Daniel Diez Alonso and Philipp Paetzold, Transition Report, 2021-22.
‘Bittersweet recovery’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, November 2021. Selected media coverage: Frankfurter Allgemeine, Le Monde, Reuters. Presentation and audio highlights at Talking Economics, Economics Observatory and Bristol Festival of Economics, Bristol, December 2021 and January 2022.
‘Recovery gathering pace’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, June 2021.
‘State-owned enterprises’, with Gian Piero Cigna, Pavle Djuric, Philipp Paetzold, Nikola Vujic and Yuliya Zemlytska, Transition Report, 2020-21. Selected media coverage: Enterprise, Financial Times, Frankfurter Allgemeine, Handelsblatt, Intellinews. Presentation at UCL SSEES, London, January 2022.
‘Covid-19: Early estimates of the damage, uncertain prospects’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, September 2020. Selected media coverage: Financial Times, Frankfurter Allgemeine, Handelsblatt, Le Figaro, Le Monde, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal. Spotlight on the Visegrad economies panel, London School of Economics, January 2021.
‘Jobs at risk: Early policy responses to COVID-19 in emerging markets’, with Cagatay Bircan and Alexander Plekhanov, COVID-19 in Developing Economies, CEPR eBook, edited by Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza, June 2020.
‘Covid-19: From shock to recovery’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, May 2020 Update. Selected media coverage: Agence France Presse, Bloomberg, CNBC, Financial Times, FX Leaders, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Reuters. Fiscal Policies to Support People and Growth During the COVID-19 Pandemic panel, London School of Economics, June 2020.
‘Covid-19: From shock to recovery’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, April 2020. Selected media coverage: Financial Times
‘Macroeconomic overview’, with Martin Hoflmayr, Transition Report, 2019-20.
‘Governance at municipal and regional level’, with Michael Ganslmeier, Chapter 2, Transition Report, 2019-20. Selected media coverage: Financial Times, Financial Times. Presented at Four Fridays for Corruption (video)
‘Stalling engines of growth’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, November 2019.
‘Creating liveable cities: Regional Perspectives’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Alexia Latortue and Caroline Pearce, Chapter 4, October 2019.
‘Facing global slowdown: More exposed, better prepared?’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Regional Economic Prospects, May 2019.
‘Closer together or further apart? Subnational regional disparities and adjustment in advanced economies’, with John Bluedorn, Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta, and Yannick Timmer, IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, October 2019. Selected media coverage: Bloomberg, China Economic Review, Reuters, South China Morning Post, The Sydney Morning Herald
‘Work in progress: Improving youth labor market outcomes in Emerging Market and Developing Economies’, with Jaebin Ahn, Zidong An, John Christopher Bluedorn, Gabriele Ciminelli, Davide Malacrino, Daniela Muhaj and Patricia Neidlinger, IMF Staff Discussion Note, No. 19/02, January 2019. See also: IMF Blog.
‘Labor force participation in advanced economies: Drivers and prospects’, with Francesco Grigoli and Petia Topalova, IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, April 2018. See also: IMF Blog. Selected media coverage: AFP, Market Watch, The Economist, Financial Times, The Guardian, The Guardian, The Guardian, Washington Post
‘Recent wage dynamics in advanced economies: Drivers and implications’, with Gee Hee Hong, Weicheng Lian, and Malhar Nabar, IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, October 2017. See also: IMF Blog. Selected media coverage: AFP, Australian Financial Review, Bloomberg, Business Insider, Financial Times, Financial Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, The Wall Street Journal
‘Migration and remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean: Engines of growth or macroeconomic stabilizers?’, with Kimberly Beaton, Svetlana Cerovic, Misael Galdamez, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Franz Loyola, Bogdan Lissovolik, Jan Kees Martijn, Yulia Ustyugova and Joyce Wong, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, May 2017; earlier version: IMF Working Paper, No. 17/144, 2017. Selected media coverage: Diario Financiero, Diario Libre, El Financiero, The Gleaner, Oxford Analytica
‘Understanding the downward trend in labor income shares’, with Mai Chi Dao, Mitali Das and Weicheng Lian, IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April 2017. See also: IMF Blog: Drivers of declining labor share of income; IMF Blog: The hollowing out of middle-skilled labor share of income. Selected media coverage: Bloomberg, Financial Times, The Guardian, The Hindu Business Line, Inequality.org, Süddeutsche Zeitung, World Finance
‘Global disinflation in an era of constrained monetary policy’, with Samya Beidas-Strom, Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Bertrand Gruss, Sinem Kılıç Çelik, Ksenia Koloskova, and Weicheng Lian, IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October 2016. Selected media coverage: Financial Times
‘Understanding the slowdown in capital flows to Emerging Markets’, with Rudolfs Bems, Luis Catão (team leaders), Weicheng Lian and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, April 2016.
‘Where are commodity exporters headed? Output growth in the aftermath of the commodity boom’, with Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun (team leader) and Sinem Kılıç Çelik, IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, October 2015.
‘Progress in Structural Transformation’, In: The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition, Regional Economic Issues Special Report, Zuzana Murgasova, Nadeem Ilahi, Jacques Miniane, Alasdair Scott, Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar, and an IMF staff team, 2015.
‘Macroeconomic Developments and Policies’, with Nina Budina, Chris Faircloth, Pamela Madrid Angers, Murad Omoev, Mikhail Pranovich, and Zaijin Zhan, under the supervision of Alasdair Scott, In: The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition, Regional Economic Issues Special Report, Zuzana Murgasova, Nadeem Ilahi, Jacques Miniane, Alasdair Scott, Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar, and an IMF staff team, 2015.
‘Wage dynamics in Belarus’, IMF Selected Issues Paper, 2014.
‘Regional trade integration and Eurasian Economic Union’, with Alexander Plekhanov, with contributions from Veronika Zavacka, EBRD Transition Report, Chapter 4, 2012.