Policy publications:
'Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation', ECB/ESRB workstream on financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation, 2026
'Geopolitical risk in the euro area', VoxEU, 2025
'Policy considerations for managing the broad economic and financial repercussions of natural disasters', SUERF Policy Brief, 2025
'Consequences of transitioning to a climate-neutral economy', VoxEU, 2024
'Consequences of transitioning to a climate-neutral economy', Research Brief, 68th edition, Deutsche Bundesbank, 2024
'Large, broad-based macroeconomic and financial effects of natural disasters', VoxEU, 2024
'Measuring geopolitical risk: Perceptions matter', VoxEU, 2023
'Latent fragility: Conditioning banks’ joint probability of default on the financial cycle', SUERF Policy Brief, 2023
'Inflation expectations and climate concern', SUERF Policy Brief, 2022
'Identifying indicators of systemic risk', VoxEU, 2022
'Identifying indicators of systemic risk', Research Brief, 44th edition, Deutsche Bundesbank, 2021
'On the reference indicator for determining the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer', Research Brief, 27th edition, Deutsche Bundesbank, 2019
'A widening divergence between financial and economic cycles' with Yingyuan Chen and Paul Hiebert, IMF Global Financial Stability Report, Box 1.1., October 2017
'New evidence shows characteristics of financial cycles' with Paul Hiebert and Tuomas Peltonen, LSE Business Review, 2016
'Capturing the financial cycle in euro area countries' with Paul Hiebert, Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, and Peter Welz, ECB Financial Stability Review, Special Feature, November 2014