Research

Research Publications

  1.   “How Much of South Korea’s Growth Miracle Can Be Explained by Trade Policy?” with M. Connolly, 
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, October 2015, 7 (4), 188-221.

  2.     “Structural Change in an Open Economy” with T. Uy and J. Zhang, Journal of Monetary Economics, 
September 2013, 60 (6), 667-682.

  3.     “The Great Trade Collapse” with R. Bems and R. C. Johnson, Annual Review of Economics, 2013 (5), 375- 400.

  4.     “Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade”, with R. Bems and R.C. Johnson, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2011, 101 (3), 308-312.

  5.     “Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession”, with R. Bems and R.C. Johnson, IMF Economic Review, December 2010, 58 (2), 295-326.

  6.     Can Multi-Stage Production Explain the Home Bias in Trade?” American Economic Review, March 2010, 100 (1), 364-393.

  7.     “A Tale of Two States: West Bengal and Maharashtra” with A. Lahiri, Review of Economic Dynamics, July 2009, 12 (3), 523-542.

  8.     Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” with A. Kose, Journal of International Economics, March 2006, 68 (2), 267-295.

  9.     “Vertical Specialization and Three Facts about U.S. International Trade,” with H. Chen and M. Kondratowicz, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, March 2005, 16 (1), 35-59.

  10.  “Why is Manufacturing Trade Rising Even as Manufacturing Output is Falling?” with R. Bergoeing, T. Kehoe, and V. Strauss-Kahn, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2004, 94 (2), 134- 138.

  11.  Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?” Journal of Political Economy, February 2003, 111 (1), 52-102.

  12.  The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade,” with D. Hummels and J. Ishii, Journal of International Economics, June 2001, 54 (1), 75-96.

  13.  “Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?” with W. Blankenau and A. Kose, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, June 2001, 25 (6-7), 867-889.

  14.  “International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?” with A. Kose, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2001, 91 (2), 371-375.

  15.  “Asia Crisis Postmortem: Where Did the Money Go and Did the United States Benefit?” with E. van Wincoop, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, September 2000, 6 (3), 51-70. Reprinted in M. Tcha and C-S Suh, eds., The Korean Economy at the Crossroads, New York: Routledge Curzon, 2003.

  16.  Vertical Specialization and the Changing Nature of World Trade,” with D. Hummels and D. Rapoport, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, June 1998, 4 (2), 79-99.

  17.   “Is There Endogenous Long Run Growth? Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.,” with N. Kocherlakota, 
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1997, 29 (2), 235-262.

  18.  “Consumer Durables, Permanent Terms of Trade Shocks, and the Recent U.S. Trade Deficits,” with J. 
Sadka, Journal of International Money and Finance, October 1996, 15 (5), 797-811.

  19.  “A Simple Time Series Test of Endogenous vs. Exogenous Growth Models: An Application to the United 
States,” with N. Kocherlakota, Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1996, 78 (1), 126-134.

  20.  “Can Convergence Regressions Distinguish Between Endogenous and Exogenous Growth Models?” with 
N. Kocherlakota, Economics Letters, August 1995, 49 (2), 211-215.

  21.  “Can Government Purchases Explain the Recent United States Net Export Deficits?” Journal of International Economics, November 1993, 35 (3-4), 201-225.


Other Publications

22. "Understanding Global Trends in Long-Run Real Interest Rates" with J. Zhang, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 2017, 41 (2).

23.    Real Interest Rates Over the Long Run” with J. Zhang, Economic Policy Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, September 2016.

24.  “How Rich Will China Become? A simple calculation based on South Korea and Japan’s experience.” With J. Jiang,Economic Policy Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, May 2015.

25.    Discussion of “The Effects of Offshoring on the Composition of Employment in Italy” by Anna M. Falzoni and Lucia Tajoli, in Robert M. Stern (ed.), Quantitative Analysis of Newly Evolving Patterns of International Trade: Fragmentation; Offshoring of Activities; and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade, Singapore: World Scientific Publishers, 2012.

26.    “The Role of the Composition Effect and Intermediate Goods in the Great Trade Collapse,” Box 4.1 in IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010, pp. 129-131, with R Bems and R. C. Johnson

27.    “China’s Emergence as a Manufacturing Juggernaut: Is it Over-Stated?” with B. Kianian, FRB of Philadelphia Business Review, Fourth Quarter, 2009.

28.    The Collapse of Global Trade: Update on the Role of Vertical Linkages” with R. Bems and R.C. Johnson in The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects, ed. Richard Baldwin, November 2009, 79-86. London: 

29.    “The Collapse of Global Trade: The Role of Vertical Specialisation” in The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis: Recommendations for the G20, eds. Richard Baldwin and Simon Evenett, March 2009, 45-48. London: 22. "Real Interest Rates over the Long Run." with J. Zhang. Economic Policy Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, September 2016.

30.    “International Trade: Why We Don’t Have More of It.” with E. Ostapik, FRB of Philadelphia Business Review, Third Quarter, 2007

31.    “What Will the Next Export Boom Look Like? Some Hints from the late 1980s.” FRB of Philadelphia Business Review, Fourth Quarter, 2006

32.    Review of Barriers to Riches by Stephen L. Parente and Edward C. Prescott, Journal of International Economics, May 2003, 60 (1), 223-228.

33.    Review of Fragmentation, ed. by Sven W. Arndt and Henryk Kierzkowski, Journal of Economic Literature, December 2002, 40 (4), 1252-1253.

34.    Curbing Unemployment in Europe: Are There Lessons from Ireland and the Netherlands?” with C. Tille, FRBNY Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 5. May 2001.


35.     “The Effects of a Booming Economy on the U.S.Trade Deficit” with S. Papaioannou, FRBNY Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No 2. February 2001.

36.    Discussion of “Revealing Comparative Advantage: Chaotic or Coherent Patterns Across Time and Sector and U.S. Trading Partner?” by David Richardson and Chi Zhang, in Topics in Empirical International Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert E. Lipsey, NBER Conference Volume, University of Chicago Press: Chicago, 2001.

37.    Review of Private Behavior and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies, ed. by A.S. Courakis and M.P. Taylor, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1993, 25 (2), 295-298.


Working Papers, Work-In-Progress, and Other Research Papers

“Sectoral Heterogeneity and the Gains from Trade” with R. Giri and H. Yilmazkuday.


“A Model of the Industrial Cycle Across Countries and Over Time” with M. Sposi and J. Zhang

“The Role of Trade in China’s Growth” with J. Ju, V. Yue and J. Zhang

“Language and Location”, with A. John, April 2001.

“Research Output by Federal Reserve System Economists Employed As of January 1997”, with D. Rapoport, September 1997.


“Language, Learning, and Location”, with A. John, Federal Reserve Bank of NY Staff Report 26, June 1997.

“The Growth of World Trade”, with J. Ishii, Federal Reserve Bank of NY Research Paper #9718, May 1997.

“Capital Accumulation or Technological Progress? Evidence from Korean Trade Flows, 1963-1990”, with M. Chen, June 1995.


“The Role of Real Interest Rates in Explaining Trade Balance Movements in Small Open Economies”, with S. Gaudin, November 1993.


“CTM: A User’s Guide”, with J. Walker and B. Honoré, University of Chicago, 1985.