Publications

Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit, accepted at AER, with Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin.
Draft (January 2022)     Appendix     NBER Working Paper #25874     NY FED Staff Reports #888

Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital, accepted at JPE Macro, with Serdar Ozkan and Jae Song
Slides (NBER EF&G Meeting, Feb 2020)    Draft (January 2022)     NY FED Staff Reports #908

Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market, accepted for NBER Macro Annual 2023, with Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and Ayşegül Şahin

What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Dynamics? Econometrica, 2021, with Fatih Güvenen, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song
Draft (April 2021) Published version     NBER Working Paper #20913    NY FED Staff Reports #710

• Data Appendix for Revised Draft (uses labor income over 1994-2013)

  • Download moments for men (reported in the manuscript)

  • Download moments for women (not reported in the paper)

• Older version (based on wage/salary income over 1978-2013)

  • Draft

  • Download moments reported in the previous version.

• Media Coverage: Bloomberg, Slate, Washington Post, The Telegraph, Bloomberg Business, CNBC

• A non-technical summary we wrote for VoxEU

The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage-Price Pass-Through, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2021, with Sebastian Heise, and Ayşegül Şahin
Published Version Slides (NBER ME, July 2020)     NBER Working Paper #27663 (August 2020)

Labor Market Policies during an Epidemic, Journal of Public Economics, 2021, with Serdar Birinci, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See
Published Version Slides (Covid-19 Search and Matching Workshop, June 2020)     Draft (November 2020)

Geographic Reallocation and Unemployment during the Great Recession: The Role of the Housing Bust, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2019, with Serena Rhee
Published Version NY FED Staff Reports #605

On the Persistence of Income Shocks over the Life Cycle: Evidence, Theory, and Implications, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2013, with Serdar Ozkan
Published Version    Replication files

Returns to Skills and the College Premium, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2011, with Flavio Cunha and Ilton Soares
Published Version    Working Paper Version

Working Papers

Individual and Market-Level Effects of UI Policies: Evidence from Missouri, R&R at RED, with Kurt Mitman and Brendan Moore
Slides (Sep, 2020)    NY FED Staff Reports #905    CEPR Discussion Paper 14158

Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects with Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, and Kurt Mitman, 2nd round at JPE
Abstract    Draft (January 2019)    NBER Working Paper #19499    NY FED Staff Reports #646

• Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Business Insider, The Washington Post, Washington Examiner

• A video showing UI duration across states during the Great Recession

• Our stimulative debate with Bob Hall, upon his extensive comments, led us to write this response.

• A blog post I wrote on Liberty Street Economics: Do Unemployment Benefit Expirations Help Explain the Recent Surge in Job Openings?

• A case study on the experience of North Carolina after cutting UI durations. Data used in the note can be downloaded here.

Population Aging, Migration Spillovers, and the Decline in Interstate Migration with Serena Rhee, R&R at RED
Draft (September 2017)    NY FED Staff Reports #699