Research

Publication and accepted paper

[1] “The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power” with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Federico Mandelman, and Francesco Zanetti

Journal of Monetary Economics (2021)Conference presentation: Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference on Public Policy (2020) SED (2021) ES Asia (2021) ES China (2021) EEA (2021) ES North America (2021)Abstract: A theory of small exogenous differences getting amplified by orders of magnitude by the endogenous responses of agents to those differences.

[2] "Chinese Asset Managers' Monetary Policy Forecasts and Fund Performance" with John Ammer, John Rogers, and Gang Wang

Management Science (2023)Conference presentation: NBER Chinese Economy Meeting (2019), IMF-Atlanta Fed research workshop (2019)Media: VoxChinaAbstract: Use textual analysis to measure and study China's mutual fund managers' monetary policy expectations.Replication Data

[3] “Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy” with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Federico Mandelman, and Francesco Zanetti

Review of Economic Studies (2025)Conference presentation: NBER SI (2019, 2020), SED (2018, 2019)Abstract: Endogenous switch across multiple steady states entails strong nonlinearity and state-dependence.

[4] "Visible Hands: Professional Asset Managers’ Expectations and the Stock Market in China" with John Ammer, John Rogers, and Gang Wang

Forthcoming at The Journal of Financial and Quantitative AnalysisAbstract: We analyze how investors make investments according to growth expectations and how these expectations influence stock prices.Media: VoxChinaConsensus Growth Expectation Data

[5] "Supplier adoption and termination over the business cycle" with Le Xu and Francesco Zanetti

Journal of Monetary Economics (2025)Conference presentation: SED (2023)Abstract: The adoption of suppliers is procyclical, while the termination of suppliers is countercyclical. Adjustment and management costs are key to understanding these patterns.

Completed research paper

[6] “Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and uncertainty shocks” with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Francesco Zanetti

Conference presentation: SED (2021, 2023), NBER SI (2023, 2024)Abstract: There is assortative matching in the formation of trading relationships when both sides have idiosyncratic risks. The theory is tested using firm- and sector-level data.

[7] “Offshoring, Immigration, and Labor Market Polarization” with Federico Mandelman, Andrei Zlate, and Francesco Zanetti

Conference presentation: SED (2022, 2023)Abstract: The skill premium in the U.S. has declined steadily since the Great Recession. Changes in immigration are the key underlying force.

[8] “Market power in the market for ideas” with Li Guo

Revision requested at Management ScienceAbstract: Large firms disproportionately reap more surplus than their smaller counterparties in patent trades.

[9] “Defensive Hiring and Creative Destruction” with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Francesco Zanetti

Abstract: The elasticity of researchers' labor supply has declined steadily over the past 50 years, prompting incumbent firms to overhire researchers as a strategy to deter new firm entry.Conference presentation: IAS Wuhan, Shanghai Macro Workshop, CICM, EFG Xinjiang, SED (2024), NBER SI (2025)

Work in progress

[10] “Extrapolation and Stock Market Expectations: Evidence from China” with Antonio Guarino, Marco Cipriani and Gang Wang

Abstract: Mutual fund managers extrapolate fund returns and past market returns when forming expectations of market returns and they act on these extrapolative expectations.

[11] “How to Select Equilibrium Selection Devices from Data?”

Abstract: I propose an empirical method that identifies the most empirically plausible equilibrium selection device using time series data.

[12] “How do Institutional Investors Allocate Attention?” with Dun Jia and Gang Wang

[13] ”Firm Inter-connectivity, and Labor Market Fluctuations”

Conference presentation: ES Asia, Midwest MacroAbstract: Firm-level risk is amplified by firms' inter-connectivity, which generates large fluctuations in the labor market.

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