This was fun for a few years and sooner or later I'll get back to doing it....
2010 Selection Show Running Diary
Coming to you live…after 26 hours of DVR delay… the fourth annual Selection Show running diary that I seem to do more sober each year. Next year will be handling from a monastery.
Couple of pre-show thoughts
- After the last two years of there being a group of teams that were obviously miles ahead of the rest of the group, this year is more evenly matched than just about any I can remember. While Kansas, and a little less polished Kentucky squad, have been pretty much wire to wire the top 2 teams, neither instills the confidence last years Tar heels did in terms of “definitely making final four” sort of thinking.
- Outside of those two and Duke, no one else that was at a top level this year stepped up at the end. Heck, most of the other top teams faded down the stretch with Cuse being the obvious example, going out in their first game of the conf tourney (which was actually the third round of that tournament – why a 16 team conference has multiple levels of byes is a bit perplexing). Heard a stat that no team has ever gone out in their first conf tourney game and won it all….wasn’t picking Syracuse anyway, but there’s another reason.
- Even with it being wide open, I don’t get the feeling we’re looking at a massive upset year – as “bad” as the top of the brackets are, the middle is even worse as teams like Butler and Gonzaga are shadows of their former squads, and the major conf teams that will end up seeded 5 to 10 are mostly just average inconsistent squads.
Ok, what do they got…
- 29 straight years for CBS on this thing – considering the other top sports championships/events (Super Bowl, World Series, Olympics..heck, Monday Night Football) jump around each year like Tiger at a Perkins, something pretty cool about that consistency (watch – next year – “March Madness presented by TNT”…)
- Kansas as the overall number 1 – while I don’t put them on the same level, its much like UNC last year – was the favorite going in – looked pretty good but not great during the year, won conf tournament…and ended up right where we figured they’d be.
- First team shot (best part of the show) – pretty lackadaisical really – not sure if that’s good “we’re here to win it – seed isn’t really important” or not “can’t get excited…may not be able to handle a pressure packed game”
- Kentucky as the 2nd number 1 – Calipari was worth the booster money I guess, just hope in 5 years they aren’t erasing these wins. Do think their youth will cost them a chance at the title.
- Duke as the third – can’t stand them and think this years teams is worse than usual (and would punch Kyle Singler if I saw him walking down the street) but can’t deny they stepped up at the end and deserve this.
- Syracuse holds on to the number 1 seed – man, says something about the lack of strength up top. I know they had a great regular season but to lose in their first game in the conf tourney (and not be something like 30-1 going in) and still hold that spot tells you there’s just not a lot of great teams.
- Off hand…think only one number 1 seed makes it to final four based on the – probably Kansas before seeing the full brackets.
- I’ve grown to hate Seth Davis – he’s pompous as crap and is usually wrong about his predictions (they really need to flash these guys prediction records when they are stating things so vociferously).
- Not sure what the complaint is here about Duke passing Syracuse … Duke won their conf tourney and Cuse lost in first game. While yea, Cuse had a better regular season and much stiffer opponents (that loss was to Georgetown who lost the Big East championship by 2 feet of a last second layup), still can’t go down like that late (lost last two)and expect to hang onto your ‘spot’..
- And then his main point “Cuse has to go to Salt Lake City and Duke gets to go to Houston”….cause you know, Durham and Houston are just a short bus ride from each other
- Nantz and Kellog are sitting in the janitor closet it looks like (much better than last year when Nantz looked like he had just got done playing a game)
- BTW, did Kellog lose 30 pounds or something – looks much thinner. BP, call him for some tips
- You think Greg Gumbel could tape most of his lines one year and just replay them the next – essentially his job is to state the same promo’s and “coming” up things every year
- Lookiing forward to the school with the camera that doesn’t get the bid – always fun to destroy the hopes of 20 year old kids
BTW, if they go to 96 teams next year (or any year) they should all be shot…
MIDWEST
- Lehigh Baby!! Couple notes – first, for them to get the 63 seed is a great stroke of luck – 64 or 65 and we may not have seen them / anything better and we’d think “man, hope for Doug’s sake they pull out the win”. As matched with the overall number 1 think we can be safe to assume they won’t win…but all about the cover baby. Second, I was unaware they had changed their name to the Mountain Hawks – WHY OH WHY!! Lehigh Engineers was perfect….
- UNLV is a team I like – they won’t beat Kansas (you’d always rather be a 10 seed than an 8) but do like them. Man, they flashed to UNLV – looked like a church choir. All decked out in matching red polo/black pants sitting orderly…this ain’t Tarkanian’s Running Rebs any longer
- Playing Northern Iowa who was overrated – UNLV big there
- Mich St – usually gotta love their chances as a very proven tourney team, but this year I just don’t like them. Will be taking New Mexico St in a possibly upset
- Maryland at a 4 seed – really not sure what to think about them. I’ve seen them play great and look like a great sleeper champion candidate, and I’ve seen them look like they shouldn’t even be in a major conference. Their best player has a habit of taking TERRIB LE shots when pressure is on….so got a feeling they could be done after a round or two. They will beat Houston who had their players in all red jumpsuits on a red carpet – think it may have damaged my TV…
- Ohio St with Turner I think has a really good shot to go to the Final Four. Not often I give a Big Ten team credit, but Evan Turner is a flat out player (guy broke his back this year…that’s incredible) and OSU can play with anyone. Getting by Kansas will be a tall order, but do like them.
- Ok St / G Tech – first game I see and think “no idea who will win that one”…may just bet the dog on the moneyline to have some odds.
- GTown goes from the 8 seed in the Big East tourney to a three seed in the tourney. They can play with anyone and hot at the right time, but think the 8 is their ceiling. Playing Ohio….and the Ohio mascot I swear was just having a seizure. Does everyone that goes to Ohio have to go through a “where did yo go” / “Ohio” / “oh, Ohio State – a buckeye” / “no, just Ohio….”
- Tennessee had the all-underwhelming reaction – guys barely clapped. Draw one of my sleeper faves in San Diego St. – think I’ll be going moneyline there as SD St got hot late and Tenn can beat anyone…and lose to anyone.
- Dammit…hate when Seth Davis agrees with me and he just picked SD St as his upset pick.
- Greg Anthony wanted to pick UNLV over Kansas…but can’t.
- Man, you look at this bracket with Kansas, UNLV, Michigan St, Georgetown and even Maryland, Georgia Tech and Ohio St – some historic name programs.
- While always like the Hoyas, and a fan of Ohio St this year….hard not to see Kansas coming out of here
WEST
- Since when is Buffalo in the West…make Cuse the fourth number 1…then give them the closest game probably of any of the four. Odd – and while I doubt it happens, Vermont over Syracuse isn’t unfathomable….especially since it happened 3 years ago (and I had that money-line ticket)
- The Zags are down this year, but still think they probably beat Florida St. The winner of this one has a shot at taking down Cuse.
- Butler has won 20 straight…but don’t buy it, and think UTEP has a real shot there.
- Vandy had some big wins early, but not sure I see them doing much here…and matched up with a Murray State team that historically has done well in the tourney. Potential money line play.
- Kansas St I kindof like to win a few games – not great but will play teams well.
- BYU – Florida…meh – don’t even care.
- Pitt another of many “can beat or lose to anyone”….Oakland has a real shot against them.
- Minnesota gets in due to their run in the big 10 Tourney, but plays an Xavier team who has made the Sweet 16 quite a few times last few years. Think the gophers won’t be moving forward.
- Think this region is WIDE open – looking at the top half of the draw, outside of 16 seed Vermont, any of the 8 could make the Great 8 I think. Bottom half isn’t much different – compared to the Midwest, this is a cakewalk.
EAST
- Man, they showed KY and East Tennesse and thedifference was unbelievable – Kentucky had zero reaction, and ETSU went nuts….unfortunately, that’s the last time ETSU will win anything in this matchup
- Texas almost went from number 1 to out of the field this year – I can’t see how anyone could bet on this squad (although Wake isn’t that good either – William and Mary beat them)…
- Temple-Cornell could be a good game, but I agree with Davis that Temple was underseeded and probably will win big
- Wofford just erupted…they will get waxed by Wisconsin but think they locked up the “loudest reaction shot” award.
- West Virginia at a 2 seed here – that kids Butler for them was incredible – when they needed a shot, he made it. I won’t be betting against this team (although seem to like to play tight games so may be a spread play against when a big favorite).
- Clemson I think has no shot to do anything (saw something earlier this year that they are probably the ‘best’ program to never have made a final four…and that streak won’t end this year. Not a huge fan of Missouri but going to take them here.
- Not sure I buy New Mexico – good record but team like that has to win their conf tourney and they didn’t.
- They showed Marquette – they were in a bar – I’m always a big van of that. Washington is their opponent….and if I have a matchup of Big East-Pac 10 this year, I’ll take the Big East every time.
- While there’s some teams I like here in Temple, Marquette and even Wisconsin….I’d be shocked if this doesn’t come down to Kentucky vs West Virginia…and I’ll take WVU in a buzzer beater by that kid Butler.
SOUTH
- Man, they just say Duke and I grimace – really just don’t like them. Get the winner of the play-in game….as usual, have to add my “that’s dumb – stop having one play-in game” rant.
- Cal-Louisville – another Pac 10/Big East matchup….although think this one is a lot closer, but guess I’ll have to go Louisville for consistency.
- Texas A&M – Utah St – unless he just misspoke these teams are both the Aggies….that’ll get fun for the announcers. Like Utah St here as A&M just isn’t that good.
- Purdue gets a four seed, which was compromise of the 2/3 seed they earned before Hummel went down, and the 8 seed they’d have been without Hummel all along. Definitely a prime first round upset candidate, although I’m not a huge Siena fan – still will take them on the moneyline.
- Kid for Siena just gave the most half-hearted fist raise I’ve ever seen. And Anthony may have burst my bubble on moneyline possibility as he thinks it’s possible Siena is favored.
- Villanova takes this 2 seed – I like them to do some damage in this tourney.
- Although Richmond is one of my favorite mid-majors to possibly make the sweet 16 – tough call there in the 2nd riound (Spiders will roll st. Mary’s)
- Baylor at 3 and Norte Dame at 6 in the same sub region. Two teams I really don’t have a good handle on – ND does have to play ODU who beat W&M for the Colonial title. ODU really isn’t that good though – I’d be surprised if ND doesn’t win big.
- Like Villanova probably….but will say if not them, Richmond could pull a huge shocker and go far.
OVERALL
Kansas I think has the toughest region by far. Kentucky I think has the best number 2 in WVU, but not nearly as deep there as region. The other two are considerably weaker.
The conference breakdown I think is about right – Big East leads the way, Big 10 next, then ACC and Big 12. Good number of mid-majors which seems right this year and a big increase this year. Pac 10 just awful with two seeds. Looking at the teams that missed – other than Miss St with their SEC run, don’t think anyone has much room to complain.
So think first real view of things, saying Kansas, West Virginia, Xavier (don’t like anyone in this region) and Villanova.
Man, they have Greg and Seth pick final 8 – Greg goes all 1 and 2, and Seth puts in two 3 seeds – way to go out on a limb. Between them, final four is 5 number 1’s and 3 number 2’s – unbelievably weak effort there. Do like a few of their sleeper picks (SD St in particular). The got the head of the tourney committee – guy looks like the local butcher.
Davis said a firm three to six teams will dominate as they are above the rest….thoroughly disagree. Not sure what to expect, but don’t think you see chalk dominate this year.
That’s it – fire up for Vegas.