Publications & Papers

(Updated August 2025)

Published Works

Determining the Location of the 22 May 1855 Chicago Area Tornado
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article. Detailed research into, and efforts to correct, the location of on of the earliest tornadoes in Chicago history.
AMS journal article | NOAA SciShare presentation | ArcGIS Story Map | Whirlwind on the Prairie blog series

Satellite-based characterization of convection and impacts from the catastrophic 10 August 2020 Midwest US Derecho
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article. Analysis of remote-sensed data and GIS analysis for the costliest severe thunderstorm event in US history.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/4/BAMS-D-21-0023.1.xml  | Related ArcGIS Story Map

A Preliminary Look at Using Rainfall Average Recurrence Interval to Characterize Flash Flood Events for Real-Time Warning Forecasting
Journal of Operational Meteorology article. Investigation of 3-hr rainfall ARIs as a potential tool for determining onset of flash flooding based upon over 20 cases.
https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2018.0602

Utilizing Crowd-Sourced Rainfall and Flood Impact Information to Improve the Analysis of the North Central Gulf Coast Flood Event of April 2014
Journal of Operational Meteorology article. Usage of crowd-sourcing to increase coverage of flood reports and rainfall reports. Analysis of rainfall sensitivity to data sources used in analysis.
http://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2017.0503

Using New Orleans Pumping Data to Reconcile Gauge Observations of Isolated Extreme Rainfall due to Hurricane Isaac
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering article. Usage of pumping records from New Orleans Sewerage and Water Board to back calculate rainfall on the city.
http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001338

Recent Technical Papers

The April 1973 Rock River Basin Floods
https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TA/TA_2501.pdf

Calculation of Lead Time for the Flash Flood 4-Panel Technique in NWS Central Region
Update to previous technical reports that evaluated the potential warning lead time associated with 4 Panel Technique.
https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TA/TA_2502.pdf

The Midwest Dust Storm of 16 May 2025
https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/2025/05_16/2025_05_16_Dust_Storm.pdf

An Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in Chicago and Vicinity Since 1950 (NWS CR Technical Service Publication TSP-21)
https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TSP/TSP-21.pdf

The Wilmington Area Ice Jam on the Lower Kankakee River During January 2024
https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/2024/01_IceJams/Kankakee_River_Wilmington_Ice_Jam_report.pdf

A Comparison of Spotter-Estimated Winds to Observed Winds in the Midwest
https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TA/TA_2401.pdf

The July 2 and September 17, 2023, Flash Flood Events in the Chicago Metro Area
Analysis of the meteorological conditions, rainfall patterns, and flood impacts from two extreme rainfall events which occurred in the vicinity of Chicago in the summer of 2023, including the costliest weather event in Chicago history.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/2023/07_02/2023_07_02_and_2023_09_17_Chicago_FlashFloods.pdf

New Orleans Rainfall Event of September 4, 2023
Analysis of a heavy rainfall and flood event in New Orleans requested by the Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans based upon previous research in this area.

Creating an Operational Forecasting System for the Chicago River
Report detailing the steps taken to create a modeling system for the complicated Chicago River and associated Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. Set the groundwork for the first operational forecasting of the waterway by the NWS.
https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TA/TA_2302.pdf

MRMS and FLASH Thresholds for Assessing Flash Flood Potential in Realtime for the Western Great Lakes Part 2: Land Cover and Soil Moisture Considerations
Update to previous technical report that evaluated the effect of soil moisture and urbanization on thresholds for the 4 Panel Technique.
https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TA/TA_2303.pdf

MRMS and FLASH Thresholds for Assessing Flash Flood Potential in Realtime for the Western Great Lakes
Analysis of approximately 200 flash flood cases in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois to test a new flash flood nowcasting technique developed at NWS Chicago called the 4 Panel Technique.
https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TA/TA_2301.pdf

Analysis of the August 12, 2021, Flash Flood in and near Gibson City, IL
Analysis of rainfall observations, flood impacts collection, and hydrologic modeling for an extreme event in central Illinois.

Analysis of the July 12-13, 2021, Flash Flood near Seneca, IL.
Analysis of rainfall observations, flood impacts collection, and hydrologic modeling for a very localized, extreme event in northern Illinois.

Rainfall Analysis of the June 27th, 2020, Flash Flood in the Vicinity of Kentland, IN.
Analysis of rainfall observations and flood impacts for a very localized, extreme event in northwest Indiana.