Published paper:
Trade and currency weapons, with Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Matthieu Bussière (CEPII Working Paper N°2018-08, CESifo Working Paper n°7112 and Vox column). Published in Review of International Economics, 2021; 00: 1-24.
The debate on trade wars and currency wars has re-emerged since the Great recession of 2009. We study the two forms of non-cooperative policies within a single framework. First, we compare the elasticity of trade flows to import tariffs and to the real exchange rate, based on product level data for 110 countries over the 1989-2013 period. We find that a 1 percent depreciation of the importer's currency reduces imports by around 0.5 percent in current dollar, whereas an increase in import tariffs by 1 percentage point reduces imports by around 1.4 percent. Hence the two instruments are not equivalent. Second, we build a stylized short-term macroeconomic model where the government aims at internal and external balance. We find that, in this setting, monetary policy is more stabilizing for the economy than trade policy, except when the internal transmission channel of monetary policy is muted (at the zero-lower bound). One implication is that, in normal times, a country will more likely react to a trade "aggression" through monetary easing rather than through a tariff increase. The result is reversed at the ZLB.
Work in progress:
Retaliation through temporary trade barriers, with Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry and Chris Papageorgiou. IMF Working Paper n°2023/099, CEPR Discussion Paper n°17853, CEPII Working Paper n°2023-08.
Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from French Firms, with Mariya Brussevich and Chris Papageorigou. IMF Working Paper n°2022/081.
Cooperative trade policy and disputes under the GATT-WTO, with Meredith Crowley.
Trade impact of Chinese economic coercion, with François Chimits and Vincent Vicard
Does exchange-rate stability promote trade liberalization? A reassessment
Economic shock, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from the European Union, with Sarah Schneider-Strawczinsky.
Policy publications:
Quelle stratégie pour l’Union européenne face au protectionnisme américain ?, avec Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Houssein Guimbard et Yu Zheng. CEPII Policy Brief.
Trade Dependencies: While China Is in a Dominant Position, the European Union Is Not Without Advantages, La Lettre du CEPII.
Import Dependencies: Where Does the EU Stand?, with Kevin Lefebvre. CEPII Policy Brief.
Will Chinese Auto Export Boom Transform into Local Production in Europe?, with Thierry Mayer and Vincent Vicard. CEPII Policy Brief.
EU strategic dependencies: a long view, with Vincent Vicard. CEPII Policy Brief.
Retaliatory temporary trade barriers: New facts and patterns, with Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry and Chris Papageorgiou. Published in Journal of Policy Modeling.
Contributions to books:
National security tariffs on the auto industry, with Keith Head, Thierry Mayer and Vincent Vicard (2025), in Gensler, G, S Johnson, U Panizza and B Weder di Mauro (eds), The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment, CEPR Press, Paris & London. Online Appendix
De quoi l’autonomie stratégique ouverte est-elle le nom ? In L'économie mondiale 2023, La Découverte, p.87-101, septembre 2022, Vincent Vicard, Pauline Wibaux