Yicheng Wang (汪意成)
Associate Professor of Economics, Peking University HSBC Business School
Research Interest
Macroeconomics, Macro Finance, Chinese Economy
I study the impact of macro policies (such as monetary, tax, credit, climate policies) on firms, entrepreneurs, and the macro-economy, using appropriate empirical analysis and structural models, and closely related, how micro-level heterogeneity shapes Aggregate variables and Optimal policy designs
Working Papers:
Subsidizing New Technologies: the Dynamic, Distributional Impacts
with Vincenzo Quadrini (USC), Qi Sun (SHUFE)
Summary: New technologies are expensive. Subsidizing new technologies may benefit relatively rich households in the short run but, as later firms build on previous knowledge, later on poor households will also benefit. Thus, the fiscal multiplier should take into account the dynamic, distributional impacts, and otherwise it would be misleading. We provide empirical and quantitative support.
Production Linkages and the Cross-Regional Spillovers of Local Fiscal Policy in China,
with Shoushuo Xin (McGill)
Summary: We investigate, empirically and quantitatively with a spatial GE model, how local government debt generates cross-regional spillovers through production networks in China. We show upstream and downstream sectors have distinct exposures. Ignoring cross-regional spillovers tends to understate the effects on firm revenue by 48% and on household welfare by 18%.
Revisiting the Meese and Rogoff Puzzle: Micro-Level Evidence from Financial Intermediaries,
with Yumeng Cui (CUFE), Yongmiao Hong (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences), Naijing Huang (CUFE)
Summary: Despite numerous advances in economic theory and modeling techniques, this puzzle still persists. We show that applying machine learning methods to micro-level financial intermediary variables is essential for extracting predictive signals. Thus, we provide new progress and new directions to this puzzle.
The Nexus of Entrepreneurship and Credit Market: A Tale of Two Frictions, SSRN Link,
with Zhiwei Xu (Fudan), Jinxiang Yu (SHUFE), Liyan Yang (Toronto)
Summary: We study endogenous entrepreneurship and bank credit supply with two realistic elements: adverse selection in entrepreneurial entry interacts with moral hazard in loan repayment. We show several new implications: subsidy policies and entry deregulation may backfire, credit cycles endogenously emerge in the economy, among others.
Allocative Efficiency of Green Finance Instruments, SSRN Link,
with Kai Li (Tsinghua U), Chenjie Xu (SHUFE)
Summary: We provide a framework with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions to study the efficiency of different green instruments.
We show it is important to consider the equilibrium allocation effects: for example, Carbon tax may increase Total emissions in our framework but otherwise hard to understand.
Leasing, Pecuniary Externality, and Aggregate Efficiency,
with Kai Li (Tsinghua U), Yiming Xu (Peking U)
Summary: When firms have options to lease capital, we show that the traditional results of too little new capital investment and too high capital price could be completely changed (such as Dávila & Korinek 2018 RES, Lanteri & Rampini 2023 AER).
Publications:
Do Asset Prices Help Predict Inflation? Evidence from Individual Stock Prices,
with Yumeng Cui (CUFE), Yongmiao Hong (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences), Naijing Huang (CUFE)
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2026, Online Link,
Summary: Using a large panel of firm-level stock prices and applying machine learning techniques, we demonstrate that individual stock prices significantly enhance the accuracy of inflation forecasts for the macroeconomy, comparing to the literature (such as Stock and Watson (2003, 1989, 1999)).
Monetary policy in open economies with production networks, Working paper, SSRN Link,
with Zhesheng Qiu (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Le Xu (Shanghai Jiao Tong U), Francesco Zanetti (Oxford U)
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 159, April 2026, 103918, Online Link
Summary: In an open economy with production networks, Monetary policy differs from standard ones to best reduce inefficiency. Sectoral import and export behaviors, and their propagations via input-output linkages, are critical. Why? A sector's policy weight should be smaller when its downstream sectors import intensively, as that sector contributes less to domestic output; likewise for sectors that intensively export (directly or indirectly through networks), since their distortions matter less to domestic welfare. Notable examples are those "export processing" sectors.
Forecasting GDP Growth Rates: A Large Panel Micro Data Approach, SSRN Link,
with Yumeng Cui (CUFE), Yongmiao Hong (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences), Naijing Huang (CUFE)
Management Science, 2026, Online Link,
Summary: We propose a novel micro-forecasting approach, using a large panel of individual firms' accounting earnings from corporate financial reports to forecast GDP.
Taxation and Entrepreneurship in the United States, SSRN Link,
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2025, forthcoming, AEA link, Online Appendix
with Hans Holter (U. of Oslo, Delaware, and Nova) and Serhiy Stepanchuk (U. of Southampton)
Summary: This paper studies the effects of income taxation on entrepreneurship, both empirically and in a structural macro model with entrepreneurial choice.
Quantifying the Macroeconomic Impact of Credit Expansions, SSRN Link,
with Corina Boar (NYU), Matthew Knowles (Cologne) and Kjetil Storesletten (Minnesota)
International Economic Review, Volume 66, Issue 5, pages 1913-1928, 2025; Publication Link,
Summary: Using banking deregulations in the US as natural experiments, we quantify different channels when credit market conditions change by building and estimating
a Heterogenous-Firm-New-Keynesian Model.
Limited Firm Insurance and Aggregate Implications,
single-authored, Management Science, 2025, Volume 71, Issue 7, July 2025, Pages iv-vi, 5419-6318
Published PDF Published Online Link SSRN Link for the latest version, 05/2024. Working Paper
Summary: little is known about the impacts of financial shocks on firms' insurance to workers and in turn the aggregate implications.
Income Volatility and Portfolio Choices, Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 44, April 2022, Pages 65-90
with Yongsung Chang (Seoul National U.), Jay H. Hong (Seoul National U.), Marios Karabarbounis (Richmond Fed), Tao Zhang (Frisch data center)
[Published Version PDF Link, Working Paper, Online Appendix], 2022.
Summary: Using administrative data from Norway, we identify the impact of idiosyncratic income volatility shocks on portfolios. A new quantitative structural model, with "shocks to the second moment", is proposed to account for the findings and investigate welfare implications.
Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Mortgage Guarantee Programs for the Poor,
with Jiseob Kim (Yonsei), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 87 (2018), 124–151
[Published Version PDF Link, Working Paper]
Summary: Using survey of consumer finance data (1989-2013) and based on a quantitative model, we find that those explicit government guarantee programs (e.g., FHA, VA, RHS) essentially provide insurance and redistribution only within low-income and low-asset households, and the unintended GE effects may hurt other home buyers.
Debt Market Friction, Firm-specific Knowledge Capital Accumulation and Macroeconomic Implications,
single-authored, Review of Economic Dynamics, 26 (2017), 19–39
[Published Version PDF Link, Working Paper, Online Appendix]
Summary: Compustat data suggests that debt market frictions affect firm-specific knowledge capital accumulation and output. Therefore, it provides a rationale for policy intervention.
无形资本研究的新进展, New Research Progress on Intangible Capital, (In Chinese, Summary Paper),
经济学动态 （Economic Perspectives)，07/2023.
with 周伟岷 , [Published Version PDF Link, Journal Website],
互联网金融与中国行业间极端金融风险传播, The impacts of Fintech on Sectoral shocks' transmissions,
Journal of Management Sciences in China , 管理科学学报, 2023, 26(4): 87-110.
(In Chinese, with 黄乃静, 史宇鹏, 于明哲) Published Version PDF Link