The last two chapters of Holt & Davis deal with Decision Making under uncertainty. Here the economic theory is SO COMPLETELY WRONG that it is not even worth studying. So we are not going to cover the remaining chapters. Instead, we will work on the new directions which are very promising.
FIRST, I would like to cover the reasons that SUBJECTIVE probability is wrong -- For this purpose, please download and READ my paper:
Subjective Probability Does Not Exist
Also view the associated video lecture:
To ensure that students have watched this video and read the paper, there will be a short quiz at the beginning of the class on Monday morning at 9:00am. After this, I would like to have a discussion on the points of the paper - especially anything the students do not understand.
Video Lecture on Subjective Prob does not exist - Explains the concepts of the SSRN paper
Subjective Probability Does Not Exist - SSRN paper, to be studied before lecture
Class Discussion of Subjective Probability - Explains basic concepts and clears basic confusions -- should be seen FIRST, before watching the main lecture on Subjective Prob does not exist