UBC EOAS Weather Briefings

Winter Term Two 2023

Public weather briefings are held via Zoom each Friday at noon (12:00 pm) PT. Undergraduates also hold informal weekly weather discussions (contact the Storm Club for details). The public briefing forecasters are a mix of graduate and undergraduate students, postdocs, research associates, and faculty. The Friday briefing often includes a weekend ski forecast. Everyone is encouraged to attend!

Weather briefings consist of a 30 minute discussion of regional and global weather of interest, with questions and interaction from the audience. The briefer uses satellite and radar imagery, observations, and computer model graphics (many of which are run and generated here at UBC), to give an overview of the recent, current, and future weather.

Please contact Nicolas Duboc if you have any questions.

Example Weather Briefing Outline

Highlight recent global weather events (optional)

• Meteorological maps please not just news stories

• Especially encouraged if BC weather is quiet

Past/Present 

• Large-scale pattern: Hemispheric, Pacific, or North American scale maps

  • Model analysis or old forecast loop leading up to today (50.0 kPa, 25. 0 kPa, and/or Dynamic Trop)

  • Visible or WV satellite loop

  • Vis/IR satellite with frontal analysis

• Current regional weather pattern and details

  • Regional scale analysis (at one or more levels)

  • Visible satellite (still or loop)

  • Radar loop (if relevant)

  • Current temperatures (MesoWest or EmWxNet)

  • Webcams

  • Look out the window! (has that rain you said won't start till evening already started?!)

Forecast

• Start again with large scale model graphics if needed (30.0 kPa, 50.0 kPa or Dynamic Trop)

• Regional scale model forecast graphics

  • 70.0 and/or 85.0 kPa

  • Surface-level maps like precipitation, SLP, temperature, wind

  • Compare models if needed, discuss differences

•   Small scale: Metro Vancouver and/or other areas of interst

  • Smallest model domains/plotting areas

• Extra detail on important forecast features

• 2-day UBC forecast meteogram page

• 2-Week outlook

• Long-range forecast 

  • Preferably an ensemble graphic, (e.g., large-scale 25.0/50.0 kPa)

• REQUIRED: Your forecast slide [CLICK HERE to get to slide] presenting your forecast and the UBC ensemble forecast of daily high/low temperatures, precipitation (snow when appropriate), and wind when significant. Make a copy if the previous forecaster has not already (maybe message them to remind them to do their verification). Edit that copy.

Try showing new, different graphics (introduce them to us). Be adventurous!

Verification (prepared by previous forecaster)

• Previous briefer makes a copy of their forecast slide (which the current week's forecaster will use as their template, linked abve). The previous briefer then colour-codes the boxes on their verification slide to indicate hits (green) and misses (red) for forecaster and model. 

• Verify your forecast and the UBC ensemble forecast against ESB rooftop observations. The verification period for a given date is from midnight to midnight.

• Criteria for correct forecast:

  • Temperature verifies as correct if it's within +/-1.5C

  • Precipitation (liquid equiv), verifies under different ranges. When precipitation is:

    • <= 5 mm:  forecast verifies as correct if it's within +/-1.0mm

    • 5 < 35mm: forecast verifies as correct if it's within +/-2.5mm

    • >= 35mm: forecast verifies as correct if it's within +/-5.0mm

  • -Snow and wind forecast included in forecast when significant

•   ·Be prepared to explain why it went wrong (Not necessary if your forecast went well)

*Trace is when there's precipitation below the lowest measurable amount, 0.25 mm