UBC EOAS Weather Briefings
Winter Term Two 2023
Public weather briefings are held via Zoom each Friday at noon (12:00 pm) PT. Undergraduates also hold informal weekly weather discussions (contact the Storm Club for details). The public briefing forecasters are a mix of graduate and undergraduate students, postdocs, research associates, and faculty. The Friday briefing often includes a weekend ski forecast. Everyone is encouraged to attend!
Weather briefings consist of a 30 minute discussion of regional and global weather of interest, with questions and interaction from the audience. The briefer uses satellite and radar imagery, observations, and computer model graphics (many of which are run and generated here at UBC), to give an overview of the recent, current, and future weather.
Please contact Nicolas Duboc if you have any questions.
Weather Briefing Organization
Your discussion should answer 6 questions (Bosart 2003)
What has happened?
Why has it happened?
What is happening?
Why is it happening?
What will happen?
Why will it happen?
Identify forecast issues
Difficult/tricky forecast details
Significant weather
Focus on these throughout your discussion
Forecast Funnel (Snellman 1982)
Go from the large-scale down to the smaller scales
Example Weather Briefing Outline
Highlight recent global weather events (optional)
Meteorological maps please not just news stories
Especially encouraged if BC weather is quiet
Past/Present
Large-scale pattern: Hemispheric, Pacific, or North American scale maps
Model analysis or old forecast loop leading up to today (50.0 kPa, 25. 0 kPa, and/or Dynamic Trop)
Visible or WV satellite loop
Vis/IR satellite with frontal analysis
Current regional weather pattern and details
Regional scale analysis (at one or more levels)
Visible satellite (still or loop)
Radar loop (if relevant)
Current temperatures (MesoWest or EmWxNet)
Webcams
Look out the window! (has that rain you said won't start till evening already started?!)
Forecast
Start again with large scale model graphics if needed (30.0 kPa, 50.0 kPa or Dynamic Trop)
Regional scale model forecast graphics
70.0 and/or 85.0 kPa
Surface-level maps like precipitation, SLP, temperature, wind
Compare models if needed, discuss differences
Small scale: Metro Vancouver and/or other areas of interst
Smallest model domains/plotting areas
Extra detail on important forecast features
2-day UBC forecast meteogram page
2-Week outlook
Long-range forecast
Preferably an ensemble graphic, (e.g., large-scale 25.0/50.0 kPa)
REQUIRED: Your forecast slide [CLICK HERE to get to slide] presenting your forecast and the UBC ensemble forecast of daily high/low temperatures, precipitation (snow when appropriate), and wind when significant. Make a copy if the previous forecaster has not already (maybe message them to remind them to do their verification). Edit that copy.
Try showing new, different graphics (introduce them to us). Be adventurous!
Verification (prepared by previous forecaster)
Previous briefer makes a copy of their forecast slide (which the current week's forecaster will use as their template, linked abve). The previous briefer then colour-codes the boxes on their verification slide to indicate hits (green) and misses (red) for forecaster and model.
Verify your forecast and the UBC ensemble forecast against ESB rooftop observations. The verification period for a given date is from midnight to midnight.
Criteria for correct forecast:
Temperature verifies as correct if it's within +/-1.5C
Precipitation (liquid equiv), verifies under different ranges. When precipitation is:
<= 5 mm: forecast verifies as correct if it's within +/-1.0mm
5 < 35mm: forecast verifies as correct if it's within +/-2.5mm
>= 35mm: forecast verifies as correct if it's within +/-5.0mm
-Snow and wind forecast included in forecast when significant
·Be prepared to explain why it went wrong (Not necessary if your forecast went well)
*Trace is when there's precipitation below the lowest measurable amount, 0.25 mm