Research
Refereed Publications
Constructing a high-frequency World Economic Gauge using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming, (with C.L. Chua and R. Zhou)
New evidence on US monetary policy activism and the Taylor rule, Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming, (with C.L. Chua).
The influence of supermarket prices on consumer inflation expectations, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2024, 219, 414-433, (with C.L. Chua).
Retail investor trading intentions: New evidence from Australia, Economic Record, 2023, 99, 512-535, (with Q. Zeng and G.C. Lim).
Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021, 36(6), 784-807. [link]
The welfare implications of unobserved heterogeneity, Review of Income and Wealth, 2021, 67(4), 1029-1051. [link]
Time-Varying Consumer Disagreement and Future Inflation, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2020, 116 (lead article). [link]
Information flows and stock market volatility, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2019, 34(1), 129-148, (with C.L. Chua). [link]
Household Income Requirements and Financial Conditions, Empirical Economics, 2019, 57(5), 1705-1730 , (with G.C. Lim). [link]
A Bayesian model of time-varying cointegration and cointegrating rank, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2018, 36(2), 267-277, (with C.L. Chua). [link]
Interest Rates, Local Housing Markets and House Price Over-reactions, Economic Record, 2018, 94(S1), 33-48, (with G.C. Lim). * Awarded Best Paper in the Economic Record for 2018 [link]
Bank and Official Interest Rates: How Do They Interact over Time? Economic Record, 2013, 89(285), 160-174, (with G.C. Lim, C.L. Chua). [link]
Predicting short-term interest rates using Bayesian model averaging: Evidence from weekly and high frequency data, International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29(3), 442-455, (with Chew Lian Chua, Sandy Suardi). [link]
A multivariate GARCH model incorporating the direct and indirect transmission of shocks, Econometric Reviews, 2013, 32(2), 244-271, (with Chew Lian Chua). [link]
An impulse-response function for a VAR with multivariate GARCH-in-Mean that incorporates direct and indirect transmission of shocks, Economics Letters, 2012, 117(2), 452-454, (with Chew Lian Chua, Sandy Suardi). [link]
The macroeconomic content of international equity market factors, Quantitative Finance, 2012, 12(11), 1709-1721. [link]
A latent variable approach to forecasting the unemployment rate, Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 31(3), 229-244, (with G.C. Lim, Chew Lian Chua). [link]
Predicting Economic Contractions and Expansions with the Aid of Professional Forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27(2), 438-451, (with Chew Lian Chua). [link]
Forecasting Australian macroeconomic time series with a large variable set, Australian Economic Papers, 2010, 49(1), 44-59, (with Chew Lian Chua). [link]
Can Consumer Sentiment and its Components Forecast Australian GDP and Consumption? Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 28(8), 698-711, (with Chew Lian Chua). [link]
Phillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate, Economic Record, 2009, 85(271), 371-382, (with G.C. Lim, Robert Dixon). [link]
Factor estimation using MCMC-based Kalman filter methods, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 2008, 53(2), 344-353. [link]
Papers reviewing Australian macroeconomic conditions
The Australian Economy in 2023–24: Navigating a Narrow Path, Australian Economic Review, 2024, 57(1), 5-20, (with V.H. Nguyen and T. Robinson).
The Australian Economy in 2022-23: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates in a Post-COVID-19 World, Australian Economic Review, 2023, 56(1), 5-19, (with J. Wang).
The Australian Economy in 2021-22: The Virus Strikes Back, Australian Economic Review, 2022, 55(1), 5-24, (with V.H. Nguyen and T. Robinson).
The Australian Economy in 2020-21: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Prospects for Economic Recovery, Australian Economic Review, 2021, 54(1), 5-18, (with G.C. Lim, V.H. Nguyen, T. Robinson and J. Wang)
The Australian Economy in 2019-20: Slower growth, record low interest rates and a changing housing landscape, Australian Economic Review, 2020, 53(1), 5-21, (with Jiao Wang).
The Australian Economy in 2015-16: Uncertainties and Challenges, Australian Economic Review, 2016, 49(1), 5-19, (with Tim Robinson, Viet Nguyen).
The Australian Economy in 2014–15: An Economy in Transition, Australian Economic Review, 2015, 48(1), 1-14, (with Tim Robinson, Viet Nguyen).
Review of the Australian Economy: 2009-10: On the road to recovery, Australian Economic Review, 2010, 43(1), 1-11, (with Guay Lim, Chew Lian Chua, Edda Claus).
Review of the Australian Economy 2008-09: Recessions, Retrenchments and Risks, Australian Economic Review, 2009, 42(1), (with Guay Lim, Chew Lian Chua, Edda Claus).
Australian Economic Review Policy Forums
lntroduction to the policy forum on the financial preferences of Australians, Australian Economic Review, 2024, 57(1), 71-72.
lntroduction to the policy forum on nowcasting the Australian economy, Australian Economic Review, 2023, 56(3), 355-356.
Introduction to the policy forum on Australian monetary policy, Australian Economic Review, 2022, 55(3), 373-374.
Introduction to the policy forum on Australian and international inflation Expectations, Australian Economic Review, 2022, 55(1), 122-124.
Introduction to the policy forum on Australian house prices, Australian Economic Review, 2021, 54(3), 359-361.
Other publications
Rising cost of living: Interest rate hikes and financial vulnerability. In Dawkins, P. and Paine, A.A. (Eds), Economic & Social Policy: Towards Evidence-Based Policy Solutions, 2022, Chapter 2. (with G.C. Lim, V.H. Nguyen and T. Robinson)
Using survey and banking data to measure financial wellbeing: Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Melbourne Institute Financial Wellbeing Scales Technical Report No. 1, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic and Social Research, 2018 (with C. Comerton-Forde, E. Ip, D. Ribar, J. Ross and N. Salamanca)
The CPI and other measures of Australian inflation, Australian Economic Review, 2008, 41(1), 105-113. [link]
Work in Progress
Supermarket prices, consumer expectations and inflation targeting
Consumer beliefs and consumption
New evidence on US monetary policy activism (with C.L. Chua)
Understanding international interest rate linkages: A new model of the global yield curve (with C.L. Chua and Y. Song)