AMATEUR FUTURIST ANDREW FRANK LISTS SOME TRENDS AND CONCEPTS
TRENDS - FORECAST – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Population Increase vs. food/water/energy/shelter supplies
Population Increase has obvious implications for the largest scale systems on Earth – oceans and atmosphere, land and natural environments. The general trend of civilizations has been to grow to the limit of what an area can support, deplete the natural resources of that area, and then depopulate by migration. Unfortunately, there are fewer and fewer places to go when it is time to move on (most resources that were easy to exploit have been exploited already). This presents us with a likely bottleneck of resources in the near future, food and water being the most critical. The bottleneck term and concept is directly taken from the writings of Edward O. Wilson, the eminent biologist and conservationist. The way that we cope with this bottleneck will have far reaching effects. Consider the effects of sustainable food production versus unsustainable food production for instance. The issues around food, environment and quality of life will become increasingly apparent, as long as the population of the world continues to grow.
Warning Signs and Response Mechanisms
Maybe the warning signs from the scientists regarding tipping points, habitat loss and degradation, and species loss (and the impact of the foregoing on healthy environments, and by extension, healthy people) will be heeded. However, the futurist Bucky Fuller predicted the "Emergence through emergency" of solutions to our global problems, as a general rule. So I don't expect the politicians to listen to the scientists, because they usually seem to ignore science in favor of lavish lobbying and lying.
Loss of Biodiversity
Biologists like E. O. Wilson tend to see humans as arrogantly presiding over the 5th largest species extinction episode in the Earth's history, oblivious to the implications for their own health and well-being. I imagine ecosystems like an interwoven tapestry. You can only remove so many strands (species) before the whole thing starts to unravel. We know precious little about most of the life forms on Earth, according to Wilson. Many or most species are not even discovered yet, and most that have been discovered only have a name and maybe a few facts known about it. We typically have little or no knowledge of how a species relates to the other species in its local environment. Biodiversity, and species interactions with their ecosystems, are wide open frontiers of science, with many research vectors apparent to anyone who delves into the subject.
Climate Change
A dynamic systems point of view suggests that when a dynamic system like the Earth’s atmosphere goes from one relatively stable configuration to another, there is a chaotic period during the transition. I.E. NO SMOOTH TRANSITION PREDICTED FROM OUR CURRENT CLIMATE TO WHATEVER WE WILL HAVE NEXT, if we have indeed passed a “TIPPING POINT.” Global Warming is no longer an adequate description of the situation (at least in my perhaps overly simplistic way of looking at the world).
Increase in Information
WWW - World Wide Web, i.e. the Internet
Micro (from micro-electronics to nanotechnology), Macro (astrophysics - from black holes to exosolar planets) and Complex Systems (humans, ecosystems, economies) studied extensively - however, these are and will continue to be frontiers of science, and the information available should continue to expand at a dizzying pace.
Data Capture – Satellite imagery, ongoing monitoring of climate and space, etc.
Technological Advances - ability to design/modify environment (increases faster than ability to foresee the consequences)
Nanotechnology
Genetic Engineering
Materials Science
Electronics - smart systems
AI - Artificial Intelligence
Sustainable design/green design becoming mainstream
With Regard to Technological Advances
Imagine the combination of several of the advances listed above, and that might give some idea of the potential application of the new technologies. For instance, what if humanity both genetically re-engineers itself and uses cyborg-like body and brain enhancements, including Artificial Intelligence chips to aid our own cognition? Would we recognize our own humanity 10,000 years in the future? Will be become a different species, or multiple different species, in the near future, because of conscious decisions to change our genetic make-up and physiology?
Art of Living
It is possible that we could embark on a new era, a time when the art of living is renewed and honored. Culture could be valued as one would expect for a truly civilized world. A global renaissance, honoring the art of living, is exactly what the doctor might order, to cure some of the ills of modern life. It seems to me like the art of living is an important piece in a larger puzzle, a puzzle that involves the discrepancy between how things stand now and how they could (and should) be better in the future. The art of living encourages us to be humane and civilized. It helps us to value and enjoy home and community.
To re-embrace the art of living from a more sustainable point of view could mean engaging in some or all of the following practices, as examples: home edutainment (less need to travel for meeting entertainment needs that can be met at home - home becomes a social venue) ecoscaping, sustainable/organic farming and/or growing more food at home, sustainable architecture, meaningful employment (work which obviously contributes to the well-being of others and/or the environment for instance).
The idea of Gross National Happiness was invented in Bhutan by the King of Bhutan, and became a measured indicator of successful governance in Bhutan, the way we look at the Gross Domestic Product in the west for instance. Let us hope that this is a trend that continues to be on our radar screens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_happiness
I try to promote happiness by saying a lot of stupid, silly, corny, and even occasionally downright sappy stuff. But not on this website.
Not now, not ever. Never never never. Absolutely (quack) not. Don't be ridiculous.
Alternative Economies
If the world economy continues to be unstable, it might be wise to consider that there are alternative forms of currency that could potentially help to offset shortages of money and credit. An example of one alternative is Time Banking. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Dollar
Energy and the Equation
I am convinced that most of our electricity should be produced from solar energy, as it is the most plentiful sustainable source of power available with current technology, and is more than adequate for our present and projected future needs. Whether policy makers can see the light or are swayed by lobbyists from the larger Goliath utilities to keep burning away the fossil fuels and finite precious resources, who can say.
Consider energy production for a minute. The biggest obstacles to implementing the renewable solutions are: the inertia going in the other direction ($$), combined with our way of thinking. Changing our way of thinking would involve taking a more forward-thinking look at the balance sheet of energy costs. This would admittedly involve changing the EQUATION.
If we changed the equation to include the real health costs that are passed on to the public by polluting electrical power industries, and the real cost of loss of productivity of natural systems that occurs from strip mining, mountain top removal and stream destruction, then the cost per kilowatt would go up, perhaps dramatically. Solar becomes cheaper. Change the subsidy structure and pay the true costs for energy up front, and solar probably could or would be cheaper than coal power. If you think solar is expensive, think about what it will cost to build giant dikes around coastal cities that could be flooded by global warming. Cheap fossil fuels are actually expensive to use for energy production, it is just that much of the cost is not paid up front.
If we change our way of thinking, we could rethink the value of commodities versus the value of a livable planet. Do we want oceans, streams and rivers teeming with life or not? How can we (meaning we Americans in particular) continue to subsidize destructive technologies and industries more than environmentally friendly ones, and expect things to change?
Futurists
I have always liked the Bucky Fuller approach to the question of world resources and human needs. Humanity can raise itself up out of poverty by designing a better world and implementing it. Other futurists envision transcending the boundaries of the virtual world(s) and the real world via technology. Jacque Fresco has some interesting architectural models and conceptual designs for houses, cities and transportation systems - I question some of the large-scale centralized city planning, as it relies more on centralized power structures than I think is healthy, but his designs are generally sleek and forward-looking.
The Venus Project - Futurist visions of Jacque Fresco
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq1r0w0i6JI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3DCd_2CpGs&feature=related
http://www.thevenusproject.com/images/stories/a-designingthefuturee-book.pdf