Economic Epidemiology

For many years, I have worked on the economics of infectious diseases, studying issues such as the optimal control of epidemics though vaccines, treatment and social distancing. I have also considered issues of individual incentives and decision making and how to align private incentives with public health goals. Last, I have written on the issue of decision making when diseases are asymptomatic.

On this page, you can find all my research on economic epidemiology and occasional writing and blogs on the topic. You can also find some videos of talks I have given and an interview where I discuss my work. Should you wish to know more about this work, you are welcome to contact me.

Blog entries, columns, policy papers etc:

How do antivirals affect the risks we face and the way we behave? (article for the Economics Observatory)

The Great Vaccine Rollout: COVID-19, Cooperation & Global Public Goods (video)

Stranger Danger: Are We More Covid-Safe Around Friends and Family? (article for the Economics Observatory)

How Important Is International Cooperation in the Vaccine Rollout? (article for the Economics Observatory)

Does Covid-19 Change the Value of Vaccines? (article for the Economics Observatory)

How Do Vaccines Affect the Risks We Face and the Way We Behave? (article for the Economics Observatory)

Effective COVID-19 Policy Is Not Only About Public Health, But Also About Economics (blog for the National Institute for Economic and Social Research)

Do We Have to Choose Between Health and the Economy? (article for the Economics Observatory)

Should Patents on Covid-19 Vaccines Be Waived? (article for the Economics Observatory)

How Does the Market for Vaccines Work? (article for the Economics Observatory)

Vaccine Nationalism: Why Do Some Countries Cooperate and Others Go It Alone? (article for the Economics Observatory)

Written Evidence for the Treasury Committee on Voluntary Behaviour (text)

Managing the Covid-19 Pandemic: Good Health Policy Is Good Economic Policy (column for ProMarket)

Vaccines Against COVID-19 Are on the Horizon; Now Is the Time to Manage the Transition Rationally (column for VoxEU)

The Pound-of-Flesh Fallacy: Do Lockdowns Simply Postpone the Pain of Covid-19? (article for the Economics Observatory)

For a mathematical derivation, see A Counter-Example to the Pound of Flesh Conjecture

Externalities: Why Do We Need Coordinated Public Action in the Pandemic? (article for the Economics Observatory)

Reaction to Open Letter by Group of Scientists to UK Government. The letter can be found here.

Do People Change Their Behaviour When Face Masks Are Mandatory? (article for the Economics Observatory)

Herd Immunity - Crucial Yet Irrelevant (blog for Bennett Institute for Public Policy)

Economic Aspects of the COVID-19 Crisis in the UK (report prepared for the Royal Society DELVE Initiative)

Reaction to BMJ Study on Face Coverings and Risk Compensation (comment for BBC Science Focus Magazine)

What to Do If COVID-19 Is Here to Stay (column for VoxEU)

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Projections for COVID-19 (blog for Bennett Institute for Public Policy)

Coronavirus and the Economy: What are the Trade-offs? (article for the Economics Observatory)

From Epidemiology to Economic Policy (blog for Bennett Institute for Public Policy)

The Economics of Infection - An Economist’s Journey Into the Natural World (blog for Bennett Institute for Public Policy, part 1:2)

Thought Experiments - Can Economic Models Help Disease Control? (blog for Bennett Institute for Public Policy, part 2:2)

Interviews, media mentions and podcasts:

Featured in Financial Times (extended interview, text)

Cited in Financial Times (text)

Cited in The National (text)

Cited in Axios (text)

Cited in Sky News (text)

LSE Beveridge Report Podcast on economic epidemiology (audio)

At the Margin Podcast on the economics of vaccination (audio)

Science, Policy & Pandemics: Episode 14 - Vaccines (Centre for Science and Policy Podcast)

Cited in Izvestia (text)

Interviewed for the Wall Street Journal (text)

Interviewed for Danish National Television DR2 Deadline (03:37) (video)

Cited in The Telegraph (text)

Cited in BBC World Services (text)

Interview on BBC News (video)

Interview for National Danish Radio on the Australian strategy (36:37)

Interview for National Danish Radio on easing restrictions in the UK (1:03:36) (audio)

Interviewed for The Telegraph (text)

Interviewed for BBC Scotland on post-COVID recovery (video)

Interviewed for NBC on vaccine nationalism (text)

Interviewed for BBC Scotland on path out of lockdown (video)

Interviewed for BBC World Services Morning Report on vaccine nationalism (long version audio with text write-up)

Interviewed for BBC World Services Morning Report on vaccine nationalism (short version audio)

Cited in Politico (text)

Cited in Western Daily Press (text)

Cited in Yahoo! News (text)

Cited in The Independent (text)

Cited in France 24 (text)

Cited by Channel 4 News (text)

Cited in The Independent (text)

Cited in The Sun (text)

Interviewed on BBC Northern Ireland Inside Business (10:00) (audio)

Interviewed by the Wall Street Journal (text)

Interviewed on BBC Radio Scotland Drivetime (44:00) (audio)

Interviewed on BBC Radio Scotland Drivetime (41:00) (audio)

Cited in Daily Mail (text)

Cited in The Times (text)

Interviewed on Wake Up with Cheddar TV (video)

Cited in Izvestia (text)

Cited in Wales Online (text)

Cited in MyLondon (text)

Cited by the Associated Press (text)

Cited by 7 News (text)

Interviewed on LBC Breakfast (audio)

Interviewed on Sky News (video)

Interview by Andrew Neil for The Spectator TV (video)

Women's Health Magazine on Local Restrictions (text)

Wall Street Journal on European Epidemic (text)

BBC Radio 5 Live on the Use of Local Restrictions and Circuit Breaker (2:36:10) (audio)

Warrington Guardian on the Use of Local Restrictions (text)

Liverpool Echo on the Use of Local Restrictions (text)

Cambridge News on the Use of Local Restrictions (text)

CBS News on the Use of Local Restrictions (text)

Harper's Bazaar on the Use of Local Restrictions (text)

The Independent on the Use of Local Restrictions (text)

The Telegraph on Effects of Weather on Behaviour (text)

New Scientist Article on Pub Closing Rules (text)

The Sun Article on Pub Closing Rules (text)

Medscape Article on Pub Closing Rules (text)

The Huffington Post Article on Pub Closing Rules (text)

The Independent Article on Disease Projections (text)

Daily Mail Article on Disease Projections (text)

BBVA OpenMind (text)

CNN Article on Social Distancing (text)

Wall Street Journal on Waning Immunity (text)

Forbes Argentina on Spontaneous Behaviour (text)

A General Profile of my Work on Economic Epidemiology (videos and text) (Cambridge-INET Institute)

Dr Flavio Toxvaerd Discusses the Economics of Infectious Diseases (video)

Dr Flavio Toxvaerd: Economics as an Art (text interview in The Varsity)

Talks, lectures and other:

The Great Vaccine Rollout: Covid-19, Cooperation & Global Public Goods (vide); expert discussion hosted by the Bennett Institute for Public Policy.

Formulating Optimal Policies using Behavioural Models (video); talk part of workshop Modelling Behaviour to Inform Policy for Pandemics, hosted by the Newton Gateway to Mathematics.

Rational Epidemic Theory and Game Theoretic Models (video); plenary talk for the NSF-sponsored workshop Bridging Disciplinary Divides for Behaviorally Modulated Mathematical Models in Human Epidemiology, May 6-7, 2021

Social Distancing: Two Extensions of the Standard Model (video)

Graduate Lecture on Infection Control; based on The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment and Waning immunity and the second wave: projections for COVID-19 (video)

Economics and the Epidemic: Models, Behaviour and Policy (video)

Roundtable on the Economics of Covid-19 Suppression Measures (video)

European Economic Association COVID-19 Symposium Invited Talk (video)

Economia del Coportamiento y Psicología en #ForbesHC: El Otro Costado de la Pandemia (video)

Behavioural Responses During a Pandemic: Implications for the UK Economy (video)

Social Distancing with Asymptomatic Infection: Beliefs, Fatalism and Testing (video from SSE)

Social Distancing with Asymptomatic Infection: Beliefs, Fatalism and Testing (video from VSET)

Integrating Economics into Epidemiological Approaches (video)

The COVID-19 Economics Rapid Response Webinar (video)

The Coronavirus: Global Impact Expert Panel (video)

Presentation at the MRC Epidemiology Unit at the University of Cambridge on the Economics of Infectious Diseases (for non-economists) (video)

In April 2015, I hosted a Symposium on Contagion in Clare College, Cambridge. Here is the programme of the event

Research:

Completed research papers on economic epidemiology:

The Great COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout: Behavioral and Policy Responses (pdf), w. C. Auld, CEPR Working Paper

Contacts, Altruism and Competing Externalities (pdf), CEPR Working Paper

Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations (pdf), w. M. Makris, Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2046

On the Management of Population Immunity (pdf), w. R. Rowthorn, Bennett Institute Working Paper

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2 (pdf), with C. Giannitsarou and S. Kissler, 2021, American Economic Review: Insights, 3(3), 321-338.

Equilibrium Social Distancing (pdf), Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2020/08

The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment (pdf), with R. Rowthorn, Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2020/13

Rational Disinhibition and Externalities in Prevention (pdf), 2019; International Economic Review, 60(4), 1737-1755. Online Appendix.

The Economics of Vaccination (pdf), with F. Chen, 2014, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 363, 105-117

Rather Doomed than Uncertain: Risk Attitudes and Sexual Behavior under Asymptomatic Infection (pdf), with K. Matthies, submitted

On the Dynamics of Beliefs and Risky Sexual Behavior (pdf), 2017