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Tomoo Kikuchi/菊地朋生
Professor, Waseda University, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies
Contact Information
Nishi-Waseda Bldg.7F, 1-21-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo 169-0051 Japan
NEW!
My lecture series on "Japan's Lost Decades" 「日本経済の失われた30年」講義シリーズ
「アジア経済をとりこむために」Apple Podcasts or Spotify by Asia Frontline.
Upcoming Talks
日本の失われた30年から中国経済を見つめる, 早稲田大学日本橋キャンパス, December 19, 2024
Introduction
Thank you for visiting my website. I am
I am also
Adjunct Senior Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
Non-resident Research Associate, New Zealand APEC Study Centre, University of Auckland, New Zealand
My main research areas are International Macroeconomics and Economic Growth and Development (Google Scholar).
My main research question has been how global capital markets influence economic development of countries.
I have obtained my PhD from Bielefeld University in 2006 with a dissertation on "Inequality of Nations, Endogenous Fluctuations, and Financial Market Globalization." You can find me in the Mathematics Geneology Project. My academic father is Volker Böhm and my academic grandfather is Gérard Debreu.
At the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific, Waseda University I offer two courses "Regional Integration in the Global Economy" and "Financial Globalization and Economic Development". If you are considering to join my ゼミ "International Economics" (choosing me as your Master thesis advisor), you might want to read my interview with AERA進学Mook or watch me on Faculty Spotlight on YouTube. I also take on PhD students who want to specialize in "International Macroeconomics". I host the WIAPS Colloquium Series on Global Capital Market and Economic Development in Asia. The seminars are open to public, please check the website for details.
My Research
My theoretical and empirical work is broadly on international capital flows, bubbles and production networks. I have also started a project that applies game theory to understand international relations. My policy work focuses more broadly on trade and investment in East Asia and the Japanese economy.
International capital flows
Theoretical work
Financial market imperfections lead to higher than optimal saving and cause capital flows from poor to rich countries (confirmed in a panel analysis in Brueckner et al. 2023), which results in cross country income differences in the long run (see Kikuchi and Stachurski, 2009). Under certain parameter conditions (bifurcation analysis) endogenous cycle emerges leading to permanent fluctuations of international capital flows (see Kikuchi and Stachurski, 2009; Kikuchi and Vachadze, 2018, Kikuchi et al. 2018).
Empirical work
In a panel analysis we find that an increase in foreign debt, in response to a decrease in the sovereign credit default swap, leads to an increase in investment and GDP growth (see Kikuchi and Tobe 2021). This is in line with our theoretical finding above. In a firm-level dataset on outbound multinational activity from China we find that the establishment of a Big-5 bank subsidiary or branch is associated with a significant increase in subsequent years in Chinese firms' likelihood to establish an overseas subsidiary in that host country (see Chor et al. 2018). This suggests that Chinese banks establish overseas subsidiaries to circumvent the kind of financial imperfections identified in our theoretical models.
Bubbles
Theoretical work
Asset price bubbles can crowd in investment when financial market imperfections suppress capital accumulation by increasing national saving (see Hillebrand et al. 2018). Bubbles in capital goods can crowd in investment in a small open economy by absorbing international capital flows when the capital goods can be used as collateral (see Kikuchi and Thepmongkol, 2020). Similarly, bubbles can emerge in utility-yielding goods such as housing when banks take housing as collateral (see Hillebrand and Kikuchi, 2015).
Production networks
Theoretical work
When firms have a convex cost function and face market transaction costs they produce at a point where the marginal costs of in-house and market-based operations are equalized. In such model the scale of production gets larger as firms are located more downstream resulting in hierarchical production networks (see Kikuchi et al. 2018). The decentralized market solution can be obtained by a central planer solving a dynamic programming problem. The model can be applied to explain the size distribution of management layers as well as cities among others (see Kikuchi et al. 2020).
Selected Publications
Tomoo Kikuchi, Kazuo Nishimura, John Stachurski and Junnan Zhang
Journal of Economic Theory, 196, 105287, 2021.
Tomoo Kikuchi and Athakrit Thepmongkol
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 52, 2085-2109, 2020.
Tomoo Kikuchi, John Stachurski and George Vachadze
Journal of Economic Theory, 176, 170-192, 2018.
Tomoo Kikuchi, Kazuo Nishimura and John Stachurski
Theoretical Economics, 13, 729-760, 2018.
Tomoo Kikuchi and John Stachurski
Journal of Economic Theory, 144, 1560-1571, 2009.
Tomoo Kikuchi
Journal of Economic Theory, 139, 310-335, 2008.
Past Talks
The 22nd Conference on International Exchange of Professionals, Shanghai, November 1-3, 2024.
39th ASEAN Rountable, Singapore, October 28, 2024.
East Asian Community Forum, Waseda University, October 26, 2024.
日本経済の失われた30年, 大学コンソーシアム京都, September 24, 2024.
International Conference on Green Transition, Capital Flows, and Financial Stability in Asia-Pacific, Cebu, The Phillipines, September 3, 2024.
日本経済失われた30年, WIAPS, Waseda University, August 20, 2024.
日本経済失われた30年の克服について, WIAPS, Waseda University, May 23, July 12, 2024.
International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, May 20, 2024.
US-ROK-Japan Trilateral Global Leadership Virtual Workshop, May 18, 2024.
PKU-Waseda Workshop, Peking University, May 17, 2024.
Liaoning University, School of Economics/Business School, March 28 - April 1, 2024.
17th Japan-Singapore Symposium, Tokyo, March 14-15, 2024.
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, March 8, 2024.
Securitized Interdependence in Asia Pacific, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, March 7, 2024. Salzburg Global Seminar / Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones? Aspirations, Expectations and China's Role in the 21st Century / Salzburg, Austria / February 18-21, 2024.
Tokyo-Taipei-Seoul Macroeconomics Network Workshop, February 1-2, 2024.
Mini-course "Global Financial Markets and Economic Development," University of Freiburg, January 8-19, 2024.
International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, September 26, 2023.
Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University, September 25, 2023.
The 11th East Asia Community Forum, Tsinghua University, September 23, 2023.
College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, September 21, 2023.
Roundtable on ‘Strategy and Statecraft in a World of Complexity and Change’, Waseda University, September 15, 2023.
5th Waseda-Keio Macroeconomics Workshop, September 14, 2023.
College of Economics, Sogang University, August 25, 2023.
Department of Economics, Korea Univeristy, August 24, 2023.
Mini-Course on "Global Financial Markets and Economic Development," Korea University, August 23-24, 2023.
College of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, August 22, 2023.
School of Economics, Yonsei University, August 21, 2023.
Ewha Womans University, August 18, 2023.
ISA Asia-Pacific Region Conference 2023, Tokyo, August 8-10, 2023.
AMES Singapore, July 28-30.
SAET Conference Paris, July 17-21, 2023.
Kyoto Institute of Economic Research, June 29, 2023.
Institute of Economics, University of Freiburg, June 22, 2023.
Economics Seminar, Bielefeld University, June 20, 2023.
Mini-Course on "Global Financial Markets and Economic Development," Bielefeld University, June 16, 19, 20, 21, 2023.
Evolving Geopolitics in Europe and Asia: Need for India-Japan-South Korea Trident, Centre For International Relations and Strategic Studies, New Delhi, May 3, 2023 (Online).
PKU-WASEDA Workshop, April 21, 2023 (Online).
Methods of Research Conference, School of Economics, De La Salle University, March 31, 2023 (Online)
Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, March 27, 2023.
The Fifth International Symposium "Connecting the World and the Future," December 13, 2022.
The 10th East Asian Community Forum, Korea University, October 21, 2022.
Symposium on the China Shock, Kobe University, October 20, 2022.
The Joint Virtual RSIS-AVI Webinar, Nanyang Technological University, October 13, 2022 (Online).
Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University, September 16, 2022 (Online).
East Asia Institute, National University of Singapore, August 19, 2022 (Online).
Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, August 11, 2022 (Online).
Macro Seminar, University of Freiburg, July 27, 2022 (Online).
Macro Workshop, Waseda Institute of Political Economy, July 25, 2022.
Seoul National University Asia Center, July 15, 2022.
Macro Seminar, Korea University, July 7, 2022.
The Prospect of Global Political Economy in the Post-pandemic Era, NCCU, May 31, 2022 (Online).
DLSU-NIDA Workshop, April 8, 2022 (Online).
RSIS Webinar Series on "Post-pandemic Recovery Across Regions," February 18, 2022 (Online).
15th Japan-Singapore Symposium, January 25-26, 2022 (Online).
Asia and the Future of Globalization, New Zealand APEC Study Centre, November 18, 2021 (Online).
Economics Seminar, Kwansei Gakuin University, November 10, 2021 (Online).
Macro Workshop, Keio University, November 9, 2021 (Online).
4th Annual International Symposium on Connecting the World and the Future “Redefining the Global ‘Good Governance’ in a disorderly world amid COVID- 19”, Shanghai International Studies University, November 5, 2021 (Online).
Economics Seminar Series, Nanyang Technological University, November 5, 2021 (Online).
Macro Workshop, Waseda Institute of Political Economy, November 1, 2021 (Online).
Japan-IMF Macroeconomic Seminar for Asia, October 1, 2021 (Online).
Global Investment Trend, The Ministry of Investment – Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board, September 21, 2021 (Online).
Waseda University Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, June 14, 2021 (Online).
Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University, June 11, 2021 (Online).
"Asia-Pacific Developments and China-Japan Relations," Shanghai Institutes For International Studies, June 3, 2021 (Online)
School of Economics, Sichuan University, May 11-12 and May 18 and 26, 2021 (Online).
3rd Annual Symposium on Connecting the World and the Future, Shanghai International Studies University, December 13, 2020 (Online).
Macro & Money Workshop, Hitotsubashi University, November 9, 2020 (Online).
Department of Economics, Seoul National University, October 6, 2020.
Jeonbuk International Finance Conference 2020, Jeonju, September 1, 2020.
Allied Social Science Association Annual Meeting, San Diego, January 3-5, 2020.
Conference on Indonesian Foreign Policy, Jakarta, November 30, 2019.
Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul, November 19, 2019.
"Understanding the Indo-Pacific through Japan's Regional Role: Implications for Korea," Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University, October 30, 2019.
Japan Special Report Launch by Perth USAsia Centre, GRIPS, Tokyo, October 28, 2019.
Partners or Rivals? Discussion on New Roles of Japan and China in Southeast Asia, Young China Watchers, Singapore, July 23, 2019.
Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) Conference, Bangkok, July 17-19, 2019.
ISA Asia-Pacific Conference, Singapore, July 4-6, 2019.
EAI Seminar, East Asia Institute, National University of Singapore, June 26, 2019.
The Risks to the Asian Peace: Avoiding Paths to Great Power War, Taipei, June 17, 2019.
10th RSIS-WTO Parliamentarian Workshop, Singapore, June 12, 2019.
Conference on Dialogue of Asian Civilizations on "Mutual Exchanges of Asian Civilizations and a Community of Shared Future for Mankind", Beijing, May 15, 2019.
Asian Security Conference, New Dehli, March 26-28, 2019.
High Level Dialogue on Indo-Pacific Cooperation, Jakarta, March 20, 2019.
International Seminar "Indo-Pacific Connectivity Outlook", Padang, Indonesia, March 11, 2019.
Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, January 3, 2019.
International Association for Political Science Students (IAPSS) Convention, Singapore, November 23, 2018.
PSB Academy, Singapore, September 26, 2018.
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, June 21, 2018.
East Asia Institute, National University of Singapore, May 18, 2018.
RSIS-WTO Parliamentarian Workshop 2018, Singapore, May 8, 2018.
RSIS, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, April 19, 2018.
Department of Economics, Korea University, March 28, 2018.
Macroeconomics Workshop, University of Tokyo, February 1, 2018.
School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, January 15, 2018.
The New Eurasian Geopolitics: Regional Multilateral Initiatives, Cooperation, and Competition, Singapore, October 28, 2017.
Japan's Snap Election, Between the Lines, Channel News Asia, Singapore, October 23, 2017.
Public Forum, Japan and ASEAN: Toward Next 50 years, 12th Japan-Singapore Symposium, Singapore, October 23-24, 2017.
Macro Workshop, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, September 6, 2017.
Special Lecture, School of Development Economics, National Institute of Development Administration, September 2, 2017.
Research Seminar, School of Social Sciences, Economics, Nanyan Technological University, August 23, 2017.
ASEAN Outlook, Economist Cooperate Network, Singapore, June 20, 2017.
Korea Money & Finance Association 2017 Annual Conference, Seoul, June 16, 2017.
Seminar, Research School of Economics, Australian National University, June 8, 2017.
Regional Cooperation Initiatives in the Asia-Pacific and the Emergence of New Eurasian Geopolitics, Singapore, April 8, 2017.
International Conference on Money and Finance, Tokyo, March 18, 2017.
Third Policy Dialogue on International Cooperation in the Development of Russia’s Siberia and Far East, Tokyo, January 21-22, 2017.
New Institutions for Growth in Asia and Eurasia: What Mission for Russia? Valdai Club Conference, Singapore, December 13, 2016.
Launch of Asian Economic Integration Report 2016: An Annual Report of the Asian Development Bank, Singapore, December 6, 2016.
Keio University SFC Open Research Forum 2016 「日本と中国の協力関係の果実について考えよう -財政・金融・通貨-」, 東京ミッドタウン, Tokyo, November 18, 2016.
East Asia in a Global Perspective, Keio University, Tokyo, July 14, 2016.
Risk and Yield Management for Official Asset Managers in a Multicurrency System, OMFIF, Singapore, March 29, 2016.
Stars Singapore Symposium Asia: The New Normal, Changi Cove, Singapore, February 24-27, 2016.
Japan-US Kanazawa Conference, Shiinoki Cutural Complex, Kanazawa, December 11-14, 2015.
Seminar on the Asian Economic Integration Report 2015, LKYSPP, Singapore, December 8, 2015.
Rethinking the Silk Road: European and Asian Perspectives on China's Global Network Vision, Tongji University, Shanghai, December 2-4, 2015.
Third OMFIF-LKY School Asian Forum, LKYSPP NUS, Singapore, December 1, 2015.
Second Policy Dialogue on International Cooperation in the Development of Russia’s Siberia and Far East, Seoul, November 25-27, 2015.
Keio University SFC Open Research Forum 2015「50年後のアジアと日本の協力関係にむけてー中国リスクを乗り越えてー」, 東京ミッドタウン, Tokyo, November 20, 2015. Video
Funding the Next Phase of Infrastructure Development in the Indo-Pacific, Ocean Financial Centre, Singapore, October 26, 2015.
Taiwan-US-Japan Trilateral Security Dialogue, Shangri-La’s Far Eastern Plaza Hotel, Taipei, August 24-28, 2015.
East Asia Symposium, Fullerton Hotel, Singapore, August 11-12, 2015.