Tom Meling

Papers:

Anonymous Trading in Equities. Journal of Finance, 2021.

Abstract: In this paper, I explore a reform at the Oslo Stock Exchange to assess the causal effect of posttrade trader anonymity on stock liquidity and trading volume. Using a regression discontinuity approach, I find that anonymity leads to a reduction in bid-ask spreads of 40% and an increase in trading volume of more than 50%. The increase in trading volume is accounted for largely by increased trading activity by institutional investors, while retail investors do not adjust their trading behavior in response to anonymity. The results suggest that posttrade anonymity positively affects standard measures of market quality.

• Mentioned in: CFTC proposed and final rule on post-trade name give-up; CFTC joint statement; expert report in SEC v. Ripple Labs.

• Media and other coverage: Finansavisen. (Summary: In line with the findings of my paper, the OSE introduced full trader anonymity in all order books.)

Do Temporary Demand Shocks Have Long-term Effects for Startups? With Hans Hvide. Review of Financial Studies, 2023.

Abstract: Using procurement auctions and register data, we find that temporary demand shocks have long-term effects on startup outcomes. Startups that win a procurement auction are more than 20% larger in terms of sales and employment than startups that narrowly lose an auction, even several years after the contract work has ended. The effects are unique to startups and economically large; about 50% of the contract value is transmitted into long run sales. The analysis suggests learning-by-doing from contract work as a plausible mechanism. Overall, our results point to the importance of path dependence in shaping the long-term outcomes of startups.

• Media and other coverage: VoxEU; forskning.no.

Tick Size Wars: The Market Quality Effects of Pricing Grid Competition. With Sean Foley and Bernt Arne Ødegaard. Review of Finance, 2023.

Abstract: We explore the effects of a "tick size war" where European exchanges competed directly on the minimum pricing increment in the limit order book, the tick size. We find that exchanges that reduced their tick size immediately captured market shares of quoted and executed volume from exchanges that kept their ticks large. Tick size competition improves market quality, reduces trading costs and increases aggregate depth and volume. These improvements are strongest in stocks where the spread was constrained to one tick, where liquidity providers use the finer pricing grid to engage in price competition.

• Mentioned in:  SEC proposal on minimum pricing increments under Regulation NMS; Better Markets amicus brief in Cboe v. SEC; Nasdaq comment letter on SEC market structure reforms; ECB Research Bulletin; FCA review of UK tick size rules; FSA review of Danish tick size rules. 

• Media and other coverage: Global Trading.

Broadband Internet and the Stock Market Investments of Individual Investors. With Hans Hvide, Magne Mogstad, and Ola Vestad. Journal of Finance, 2024.

Abstract: We study the effects of broadband internet use on the portfolio selection of individual investors. A public program in Norway provides plausibly exogenous variation in internet use. Our instrumental variables estimates show that internet use causes a substantial increase in stock market participation, driven primarily by increased fund ownership. Existing investors increase the fraction of their portfolios held in funds and do not increase their trading activity in stocks. Access to fast internet seems to induce individual investors to make better financial decisions and hence leads to a "democratization of finance".

• Media and other coverage: CEPR VoxTalk, forskning.no, BFI Insights, Dagens Næringsliv.

Green Waste. With Ingvil Gaarder, Morten Grindaker, and Magne Mogstad. Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy.

Abstract:  We develop and apply a framework to test for and measure green waste: the misallocation of public subsidies for green investment projects. Our context is a major Norwegian subsidy program to reduce carbon emissions. We apply the framework to detailed project-level data on carbon emissions and subsidy amounts for both marginal and inframarginal projects. We find that the decision-maker could have achieved the same level of emission reductions at less than half the cost. To isolate the sources of this green waste, we use data on both ex-ante expected and ex-post realized emission reductions for each project. We find that the decision-maker is able ex-ante to identify the projects with the highest ex-post emission reductions but unwilling to select them.

• Mentioned in: Norwegian Parliament January and March. 

• Media and other coverage: Aftenposten, Dagens Næringsliv Editorial and Article; UChicago Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth, EPIC, Cato podcast. Select additional op-eds in Dagens Næringsliv: February 2, 2026; February 10, 2026; February 12, 2026; February 20, 2026; February 23, 2026.

Crypto Tax Evasion.  With Magne Mogstad and Arnstein Vestre.  Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Financial Economics.

Abstract:  We quantify the extent of crypto tax noncompliance and evasion, and assess the efficacy of alternative tax enforcement interventions. The context of the study is Norway. This context allows us to address key measurement challenges by combining de-anonymized crypto trading data with individual tax returns, survey data, and information from tax enforcement interventions. We find that crypto tax noncompliance is pervasive, even among investors trading on exchanges that share identifiable trading data with tax authorities. However, since most crypto investors owe little in crypto-related taxes, enforcement strategies need to be well-targeted or cheap for benefits to outweigh costs.

• Mentioned in: European Parliament report on the future of EU tax policy.

• Media and other coverage: Washington Center for Equitable Growth, BFI Insights, MarketWatch, FT Alphaville, City A.M.

• Awards: Best paper in Fintech at the 2025 SFA.

New Technology and Entrepreneurship. With Hans Hvide. (Old version titled "New Technology and Business Dynamics").

Abstract:  We study how entrepreneurs respond to investment opportunities created by new technologies. Using the staggered rollout of broadband internet in Norway as a natural experiment, we find that access to the new technology increases startup rates by about 25% without reducing their quality. The effects are strongest in ICT-intensive industries, and treated entrepreneurs are more likely to invest in complementary assets such as computers. Consistent with existing literature, established firms show a more muted response to the new technology. Our findings suggest that new technologies are a key factor behind entrepreneurial entry.

• Awards: Best paper in Empirical Corporate Finance at the 2024 EFA.

Selected work in progress:

Why Do Larger Firms Have Lower Labor Shares? With Lancelot Henry de Frahan and Thibaut Lamadon.

Preliminary abstract: We use population panel data on firms and workers in Norway to estimate how a firm's output, use of input factors, and payment to labor change in response to exogenous changes in revenues due to shifts in its product demand or productivity. These estimates allow us to draw causal inferences about how firms change the way they produce as they grow and why larger firms have lower labor shares. We develop and estimate a model to quantify the relative importance of three sources for variation in labor shares across firms: i) the shape of the labor supply curve facing the firm, ii) differences in the returns to scale between labor and other inputs, and iii) heterogeneity across firms in the output elasticities of input factors. We employ instrument variable strategies to isolate plausibly exogenous sources of variation in the revenues of firms. We compare these instrumental variable estimates to OLS estimates and document the biases that arise when using cross-sectional data to draw conclusions about how firms grow and why larger firms have lower labor shares.

What Do Public R&D Programs Maximize?  With Ingvil Gaarder, Morten Grindaker, and Magne Mogstad.

Other writings:

Sløsing med egne penger og skattepenger.

Tåkelegging av grønt sløseri.

Grønt sløseri eller gratis øl i morgen? 

Addressing pervasive tax evasion by cryptocurrency users. 

Startups and the long-run importance of luck: New evidence. 

Ukritisk selvevaluering av innovasjonsstøtte.

Skal en etatsleder advare mot debatt og sette merkelapp på kritikere?

Tick sizes in illiquid order books.