I am a Principal Economist in the Division of Financial Stability at the Federal Reserve Board and a Fellow of CESifo, Munich.
My research interests include International Trade, International Finance, and Financial Intermediation.
My email: t.schmidteisenlohr (at) gmail.com.
Link to my CV.
New Paper: Trade Finance Use By Heterogeneous Firms (with Francesca de Nicola, Alexandros Ragoussis and Trang Thu Tran), CESifo Working Paper, March 2026, download.
Firm characteristics like size, productivity, age, multinational status and trading experience are key determinants of Letter of Credit use. Firm characteristics matter more for countries with weak rule of law and less information available.
Abstract
Letters of credit are a key trade finance instrument that covers more than 10 percent of global trade, with a notably larger role in low- and middle-income economies. Studying detailed trade data from Viet Nam, we document how letter of credit use varies with firm characteristics. We show that the probability of using a letter of credit is systematically lower for younger, smaller, and foreign-owned trading firms. Importers that are less diversified or have less trading experience are more likely to use letters of credit. Firm characteristics have the strongest effects in markets where information is scarce and enforcement is weak. These patterns are consistent with a model in which the ability to screen trading partners and the cost of bank intermediation vary with firm characteristics, and where a firm's screening ability and country institutions are substitutes. Any policy or intervention that aims at increasing the use of bank-intermediated trade finance will therefore need to take firm heterogeneity into account.
New Paper: The Uninsured Deposit Premium (with Daniel Dias), August 2025. CESifo Working Paper
Difference between uninsured deposit rate and insured deposit rate increased by 400 basis points over the last four decades and co-moves strongly with the Fed Funds Rate.
Abstract
We estimate the uninsured deposit premium – the difference between the rates paid on uninsured versus insured deposits – by linking observed average deposit rates to an estimated share of uninsured deposits. Using U.S. bank data from 1991 to 2025, we show that the average uninsured deposit premium rose by nearly 400 basis points over this period. This rise reflects both falling insured deposit rates and rising uninsured deposit rates. We find a strong correlation with the monetary policy cycle: a one-percentage-point increase in the Federal Funds Rate corresponds to a rise of roughly 32 basis points in the uninsured deposit premium. We develop a bargaining model between banks, insured depositors, and uninsured depositors that explains these dynamics.
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