FRBSF Economic Letters and FEDS Notes
"The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk"
with Sophia Cho and John C. Williams
Economic Letter, 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2025-16
[Letter] [NY Fed Liberty Street Blog Post] [YouTube]
"Evaluating Forecast Performance of Market-Based Measures of Inflation Expectations in Europe"
with Shaily Acharya, Hira Harikrishnan, and Tony Zhang
FEDS Note, 2024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 19, 2024.
[Letter]
"Recession Prediction on the Clock"
Economic Letter, 2022, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2022-36
[Letter]
"Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve"
with Michael D. Bauer
Economic Letter, 2022, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2022-11
[Letter]
"Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound"
with Renuka Diwan and Sylvain Leduc
Economic Letter, 2020, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2020-22
[Letter]
"Market Assessment of COVID-19"
with Simon H. Kwan
Economic Letter, 2020, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2020-14
[Letter]
"Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Options Prices"
with Michael D. Bauer
Economic Letter, 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2019-24
[Letter]
"Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions"
with Michael D. Bauer
Economic Letter, 2018, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2018-20
[Letter]
"Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve"
with Michael D. Bauer
Economic Letter, 2018, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2018-07
[Letter]
"Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses"
with Patrick Shultz and Michael Tubbs
Economic Letter, 2018, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2018-01
[Letter]
"China's Exchange Rate Policies and U.S. Financial Markets"
with Patrick Shultz
Economic Letter, 2017, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2017-28
[Letter]
"Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?"
with John G. Fernald and Patrick Shultz
Economic Letter, 2017, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2017-18
[Letter]