Tara M. Sinclair

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Brief Biography

Tara M. Sinclair is a macroeconomist and professor of economics and international affairs at the George Washington University.  She recently ended her term as an official at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where she worked closely with Secretary Janet Yellen and was responsible for the Treasury’s domestic macroeconomic outlook. 

Sinclair uses her research to connect economic principles with real-world concerns, developing data sources and tools that policymakers can use in their decision-making. She is a sought-after public speaker who regularly consults with public officials, business leaders, and the press on issues related to business cycles, labor market dynamics, forecasting, big data, and macroeconomic policy. 

At GW, Dr. Sinclair is the director of the Center for Economic Research, which focuses on economic forecasting.  From October 2022 through May 2024, Sinclair served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the Department of Treasury.  Prior to joining the Treasury Department, Sinclair was a senior fellow and former chief economist at job search site Indeed.  She founded the Indeed Hiring Lab, the research arm of the world's #1 job site, and developed original research using Indeed data on labor markets around the world.  She also previously served as a Special Government Employee (SGE) member of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Technical Advisory Committee (BLSTAC).

Her research focuses on modeling, explaining, and forecasting macroeconomic and particularly labor market fluctuations and trends for different countries. She also evaluates forecasts, particularly with respect to their role in monetary policy and decision-making. She teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in macroeconomics and econometrics.  

Dr. Sinclair earned her PhD in economics from Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri in 2005.

Expertise for Media

Recessions (prediction, prevention, preparation), labor markets (U.S., local, and international), macroeconomic data (e.g.: GDP, inflation, unemployment rate), Big Data, Federal Reserve policy, government debt and deficit, Treasury policy, global macroeconomic policy and conditions.

Education

Ph.D., Economics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri May 2005

A.M., Economics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 2001

B.A., Foreign Languages, Wheaton College, Wheaton, Illinois 1996

Dissertation

Essays on Macroeconomics and the Labor Market

Committee: James Morley (chair), Gaetano Antinolfi, Steven Fazzari,

Edward Greenberg, Siddhartha Chib, and Angela Davis

Fields of Specialization:

Macroeconomics, Labor Economics, Time Series Econometrics

See my research page for more information on my publications and research papers.

Affiliations   

In addition to my position in the GW economics department I am also:

• Director of the H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting at George Washington University.

• A member of the Institute for International Economic Policy and the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies of the Elliott School of International Affairs.

• A GW Institute of Public Policy Research Affiliate.

• A Regulatory Studies Center Scholar.

• A GW-CIBER Scholar.

Outside GW, I am:

• A member of the Federal Forecasters Consortium Governing Board.

• An author at VoxEU.

• A member of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW). 

• A member of the Real-time Economics Conference Committee