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Welcome to my homepage
I am a researcher focusing on ocean-atmosphere and climate dynamics. I try to understand complex climate systems using dynamical and statistical models that bridge physical intuition, rigorous mathematical theory and agreement with observations. I am particularly interested in large-scale tropical variability such as the El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). My work involves dealing with geophysical fluid dynamics theory, numerical modeling, machine learning and data analysis.
Research Interests
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Stochastic Dynamical and Statistical Models
Tropical Variability, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation
Generative AI, Machine Learning, Data Assimilation
Employment and Education
Employment:
2025-present: Postdoctoral Researcher, Clemson University, Clemson, USA
2022 -2024: Oceanographer, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
2021 -2022: Postdoctoral Researcher, CERFACS, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
2018-2020: Assistant Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences/Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
2013-2018: Postdoctoral Associate (with A. J. Majda), Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, USA
2007-2008: Gap Year, Physical Oceanography, IMARPE and IGP, Lima, Peru
Education:
2021: Applied Data Science Program, MIT- Professional Education
2009-2012: Ph.D., Physical Oceanography (with B. Dewitte, N. Ayoub), LEGOS-OMP, University Toulouse III, France. link
2009: M.S., Climate Dynamics, Météo-France/University Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
2009: Engineering Degree, Fluid Mechanics., ENSEEIHT, Toulouse, France
Publications
Thual, S. and Dewitte, B., 2025: A Fresh Perspective on ENSO Nonlinearity: the ENSO Pattern Continuum Metric, npj clim. atmos. sci., in press
Vialard, J. and coauthors, 2025: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) recharge oscillator conceptual model: achievements and future prospects, Rev. Geophys., doi: 10.1029/2024RG000843, link
Yang, C. and coauthors, 2025: Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses, BAMS, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0034.1, link
von Schuckmann, K. and coauthors, 2024: The state of the global ocean, State of the Planet, doi: 10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, link
*Thual, S. and Dewitte, B., 2023: ENSO complexity controlled by zonal shifts in the Walker circulation, Nature Geosciences, doi: s41561-023-01154-x. final version, talk, submitted version, jupyter notebook
Guilyardi, E., Capotondi, A., Lengaigne, M., Thual, S., Wittenberg, A., 2020: “ENSO modelling: History, Progress and Challenges”. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate. AGU monograph. link
Chen, N., Thual, S., and Stuecker, M. F., 2019: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Theory. Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier. link
Chen, N., Thual, S., and Hu, S., 2019: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Observation. Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier. link
Majda, A.J, Stechmann, S.N., Chen, S., Ogrosky, R., Thual, S., 2019: A Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO. In "Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and the Stochastic Skeleton Method", Mathematics of Planet Earth, Springer. link
Majda, A.J, Stechmann, S.N., Chen, S., Ogrosky, R., Thual, S., 2019: Refined Vertical Structure in the Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO. In "Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and the Stochastic Skeleton Method", Mathematics of Planet Earth, Springer. link
Thual, S., A. J. Majda, and N. Chen, 2019: Statistical occurrence and mechanisms of the 2014–2016 delayed super El Niño captured by a simple dynamical model, Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4265-5, link
Thual, S., and Mosquera, K., 2018: Estudio teórico sobre la relación entre El Niño y la Oscilación Madden-Julian. Boletín Técnico “Generación de información y monitoreo del Fenómeno El Niño” del IGP, 5 (10),5-9, link
Thual, S., Majda, A.J. and Chen, N., 2018: A Tropical Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO, El Niño and Dynamic Walker Circulation: A Simplified GCM. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0263.1, link, code
Morel, Y., Thual, S., Delcroix, T. and Hall, N., 2018: A theoretical model to analyze the Central to Eastern Pacific El Nino continuum, Ocean Modelling, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.006, link
N. Chen, A. J. Majda, and S. Thual, 2017: Observations and Mechanisms of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity, J. Climate, 31, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0880.1, link
S. Thual, A. J. Majda, and N.Chen, 2017: Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity, J.Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0174.1, link
*Thual, S., A. J. Majda, N. Chen and S. N. Stechmann, 2016: A Simple Stochastic Model for El Niño with Westerly Wind Bursts, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 113, 10245-10250, doi:10.1073/pnas.1612002113, link, supplementary information
Stachnik, J. P., D. E. Waliser, A. J. Majda, S. N. Stechmann, and S. Thual, 2015: Evaluating MJO initiation and decay in the skeleton model using an RMM-like index. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 486-508, doi:10.1002/2015JD023916, link
Thual, S., and A. J. Majda, 2015: A suite of skeleton models for the MJO with refined vertical structure, Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting, 1, 70-95, doi: 10.1515/mcwf-2015-0004, link
Thual, S., and A. J. Majda, 2015: A skeleton model for the MJO with refined vertical structure, Clim. Dyn, DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2731-x, link talk
Thual, S., N. Ayoub, and B. Dewitte, 2015: Impact of Sea Level Assimilation on ENSO Initialization and Prediction: the Role of the Sea Level Zonal Tilt and Zonal Mean, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 1895-1906, link
Thual, S., A. J. Majda, and S. N. Stechmann, 2014: Asymmetric Intraseasonal events in the stochastic skeleton MJO model with seasonal cycle, Clim. Dyn, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2256-8, link
*Thual, S., A. J. Majda, and S. N. Stechmann, 2014: A Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 697-715. link talk, code
Thual, S., B. Dewitte, N. Ayoub, and O. Thual, 2013: An Asymptotic Expansion for the Recharge-Discharge Model of ENSO, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 1407–1416. link
Thual, S., B. Dewitte, S.-I. An, S. Illig, and N. Ayoub, 2013: Influence of Recent Stratification Changes on ENSO stability in a Conceptual Model of the Equatorial Pacific, J. Climate, 26, 4790–4802. link
Thual, S., O. Thual, and B. Dewitte, 2012: Absolute or Convective instability in the equatorial Pacific and implications for ENSO, Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc, 138: 000–000. DOI:10.1002/qj.1988. link
Dewitte, B., S.-W. Yeh, and S. Thual, 2012: Reinterpreting the thermocline feedback in the western-central equatorial Pacific and its relationship with the ENSO modulation, Clim. Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1504-z. link
Thual S., B. Dewitte, S.-I. An and N. Ayoub, 2011: Sensitivity of ENSO to stratification in a recharge-discharge conceptual model. J. Climate, 4, 4331-4348. link
Dewitte, B., J. Choi, S.-I. An, and S. Thual, 2011: Vertical structure variability and equatorial waves during central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Niños in a coupled general circulation model, Clim. Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1215-x. link
Dewitte B., S. Thual, S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, B.-K. Moon and B. Giese, 2009: Low frequency variability of temperature in the vicinity of the equatorial thermocline in SODA: Role of equatorial wave dynamics and ENSO asymmetry. J. Climate, 22, 5783-5795. link
Contact:
s.thual at clemson dot edu
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